• Member Statistics

    16,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    InsulationProsofColorado
    Newest Member
    InsulationProsofColorado
    Joined
MN Transplant

December 16/17 Winter Event

Recommended Posts

for the mets:  I've been talking offline to Forky and he thinks the models aren’t responding properly to the CAD and that the storm is too far north overall. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi yes reason number 47 as to why the 3knam might not be in it's wheelhouse range yet

1573549894_nam-nest-conus-dc-snow_1hr_10to1-8163200(1).thumb.png.ce1598eb3f1d7a2ee6815189c694f7f7.png

Although it does depict the DC snowhole quite well :p

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Something is off with wxbell's 18z NAM maps.  It messed up the total precip too.  I can guarantee that 1.2" of QPF isn't an inch of snow here.

Absolutely agree. The TT maps have 12-18 from 795 in Baltimore N & W out to the mtns. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Now that’s more like it for this region 

maybe it knew cantore was coming

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

That was way before my entrance to any weather boards. @stormtracker or @Ji should know all that history well.

There was TWC or Accu weather then Wright then Eastern then Anerican

somewhere around 2004 about 6 of us met at Inner Harbour in Baltimore and discussed creating a weather board with conferences and it came true

i don’t have all of this right but mostly so 

Randy, Marcus,me,I think Matt and maybe Ian and 1-2 more were there. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, losetoa6 said:

Euro like juicy 

It's evolution isn't bad, it just decides to take the LPC of course too far N/W. The 12k did shift it about 50 or so miles SE from the 12z run which was a few SE of the 6z so there is progress there. The best takeaway is the dynamics/rates that it shows if we do get in good bands. This would be money for our neck. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z NAM is a disaster for the central and eastern sections. Decent front end thump then quickly over to sleet then heavy rain in all but favored locations...81/15/68/north of 70. Plain rain all the way past IAD this run. Wraparound snow changeover with CAA as the low goes east. CAD wedge is thin and marginal, quick retreat with WAA. Those near the M/D line into southern PA to I-81 will love this run. 12-18+ for those areas. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

18z NAM is a disaster. Decent front end thump then quickly over to sleet then heavy rain in all but favored locations...81/15/68/north of 70. Plain rain all the way past IAD this run. Wraparound snow changeover with CAA as the low goes east. CAD wedge is thin and marginal, quick retreat with WAA. Those near the M/D line into southern PA to I-81 will love this run. 12-18+ for those areas. 

Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope...

  • Haha 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

for the mets:  I've been talking offline to Forky and he thinks the models aren’t responding properly to the CAD and that the storm is too far north overall. 

Who is Forky? Did you talk to Woody, too?

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Just now, DDweatherman said:

To further show the hefty dynamics at play, check out the h7 frontogen here @ 54 hrs. 

nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_55.png

If only it were a bit colder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope...

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope...

yup. was a nice run for a few days. pack it up weenies. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

3km nam nest results aren't much nicer than the 12km nam.

nam3km_asnowd_neus_61.png

That’s double what I thought for my house.   Overperformer? 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

What is the debate at hand? You're making statements about the 18z NAM in specific. Yes you received a snarky response, but you and I both know its on the edges of the model envelope and we're not going to take it verbatim. If it verifies it would be a big score relative to where the other Op's have things at the moment. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only times I have found the nam useful at range is to confirm trends 1-2 runs after the Global’s spin them. Nam 48+ is not a great mode and pinning down main features like the Globals are. Now I have seen the nam not follow a trend for 2-3 runs in a row after globals suggested it. And nam has turned out to be right here and there last I remember was 2017 but can’t recall the event. 
 

Anyhow, nam has played its part perfectly. It’s confirming globals. Just as always, is one to two sets behind.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

not sure this is the appropriate response to that, but okay. we all appreciate your thoughts and insight. 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

for the mets:  I've been talking offline to Forky and he thinks the models aren’t responding properly to the CAD and that the storm is too far north overall. 

What does spoons have to say?

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.