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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, jbenedet said:

Support from models with poor verification scores isn’t forecast support. It’s just giving false sense of confidence. 
 

 

According to Oceanstwx the new gfs is performing as well or better than the op across the board for scores. It stayed in line with the foreign models at 00z. They stopped running it at 12z though from what I can find.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

It doesn’t. Was talking about ICON.

 

I don’t think anyone is “wishcasting” here at moment:

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/massachusetts/snow-depth-in/20201217-1800z.html

Switch  between the models available and tell us which one sticks out like a sore thumb?

The evidence points right now that the GFS isn’t seeing something the other globals are, including the ICON.

 

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

You sure it won't be the other way around?

This is the third run in the row that the GFS has done this, so it's not like last night when you could maybe dismiss it as a fluke run. Not to mention we do have a monstrous 50/50 low and strong Canadian high.

I'll ride it given the GFS history of holding out until we are within 48 hours. Would be a pretty epic GFS win if it went the other way.

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