Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Snowlover11]

never the less a good start especially for some guys that are on the ledge.

[Barman49]

8 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Do you have the 18z and this one in comparison?

 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Barman49 said:

 

Thats a pretty giant improvement actually

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Great run for the coast(improvements). For those that threw in the towel you watch more post less.

wind direction is everything for the south shore. If we can keep as much north in the wind as possible and keep that CAD going it may never go above freezing. A great example is March 07. In some recent big storms we melted allot, If not all the front end thump snow. This will not be the case this time for those hoping for a white Christmas. With all the sleet and ice your talking pure glacier 

 

[wxman]

It seems to me the sleet on the NAM (at least the 3K) is dependent on lighter precip/dry slotting.  If we can keep that at bay we can tack on a few more inches.  Still time for even more improvements.  

[cardinalland]

00z HRRR. Mostly snow, with a few hours of sleet around 95 and 1 hour of sleet for those north of 95 in Northern New Jersey

[HeadInTheClouds]

9 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

 

Good run for most. Crushes HV. 

[MJO812]

The pivot after the dry slot is real on the models

[SnowGoose69]

One thing to watch tomorrow is if the 3km NAM idea of that snow shield hitting a wall near Sandy Hook and not really making it into the area til 23Z is correct.   There is a decent dry zone 5-7,000 feet but the air mass itself isn’t exactly a bone dry one overall and winds are more 050-060 in the lower levels vs 010-030.

[nycsnow]

Winds are sick on nam 60mph with snow nice 

[friedmators]

Massive improvements on the RGEM.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

Massive improvements on the RGEM.

Looks like a mix to backend again incredible improvements for the areas that were on the fence before 

[OrangeCTWX]

6 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Massive improvements on the RGEM.

In what regard?

[NJsnow89]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

It’s colder and east

It’s already out??

[David-LI]

Nice banding on the 3k NAM as the storm pulls away

[HVSnowLover]

RGEM definitely Improved, no prolonged dry slot. Still flips LI to rain. 

[Northof78]

Seems to be growing trend of snow or rain, very little mix/sleet area...thusly the very tight gradient

[White Gorilla]

Does anyone have concerns over the eventual strength of the surface low tomorrow ?  Read a statement from NWS Boston that says pressure may only go as low as late 990s to early 1000s mb and that the models may have overestimated potency of cyclogenesis.  

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Seems to be growing trend of snow or rain, very little mix/sleet area...thusly the very tight gradient

Nam is only model really showing much sleet at our latitude. 

[romba]

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

We don’t want this storm to be too strong because otherwise it’ll punch through the confluence and give us all rain! 995-1000 millibar isn’t that strong but it’s strong enough to give you 35-40 mph gusts and heavy snow. The confluence should hold steady with a storm like this. 

True.  Thanks. 

[HVSnowLover]

Low seems to be taking a more ENE track as opposed to the due east track once off shore which is pushing warmer air into LI and prolonging the duration of the event. 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

It appears a quicker transfer could be the reason for the colder/snowier runs.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

So when do you smarty pants start throwing out your snowfall predictions   

 

Southern Westchester please  

I’ll give it a go 

Central Park 10 inches 

Jfk 6 inches 

lga 9 inches 

islip 5 inches 

hpn 13 inches 

Poughkeepsie 15 inches 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[friedmators]

Just now, MJO812 said:

All snow for NYC  on Rgem

Yea I deleted my comment.  The shield lifted north a smidge, but what was once sleet is now snow for NJ which is nice.

[nesussxwx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

All snow for NYC  on Rgem

still a little fishy to me all that sleet would blow right past philly and not reach the city/metro area

[SI Mailman]

3 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

still a little fishy to me all that sleet would blow right past philly and not reach the city/metro area

the surface low also makes it up to Point Pleasant before exiting the NJ coast which makes that run even fishier for me.  

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

still a little fishy to me all that sleet would blow right past philly and not reach the city/metro area

It is odd almost looks like a Miller B 

[Nibor]

[SnowGoose69]

That RGEM map looks to have 5 for JFK and 13-14 for LGA.  That’s quite a gradient lol