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Baroclinic Zone

December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

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1.5” here. Was just up in Portland and they have none. Winds were fantastic up there tho. Passed a couple people swimming in Casco Bay.

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31.7 with light but steady snow over the last few hours which has actually accumulated much better than during heavier rates seen this morning. Getting some good gusts too, feels very wintery. Knocking on the door of 3.5 inches, hoping some of these bands pivoting in from the NE provide a little boost

Getting down to lake level, probably just over an inch and a half, the accumulating burst during late morning didn't make it down there

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34 minutes ago, tamarack said:

About the same depth here, not quite the morning forecast of 12-18 nor the midstream update to 8-12, as the good bands refused to come more than about 5 miles NW of I-95.  Heavy precip now is downeast, but probably RA/mix within 30 miles of salt water.  Many flickers here and 7-8 full blacks - only for 1-2 seconds, not enough to start the gennie but plenty to foul up computers and TV.

3.5" for you... wow.  That looked like a lock for 8"+ too.

We definitely over-estimated the dynamic cooling and should certainly pay better attention to 2-M temps next time.  Last night's 00z EURO had widespread >0C surface temps as of 8pm tonight but as a forum I don't think we really discussed that aspect.  The idea was the dynamics would flip it easily to stackable snow.

Wonder what your QPF is?

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32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m calling it 8.5” final.  I had been hoping for 9-12”. So this was close.  I wasn’t buying the 15-18” amounts clown maps were spitting out

Awful to clear though.  Pretty water logged.  Chute kept getting jammed up 

Just picked up a 2021 Ariens platinum 24 sho this morning. Don’t think it will be needed but might fire it up for fun in the am.

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Alright. So we have almost 3”...calling it 2.8” so far

Stratus #1 had 0.32” of rain when the snow started sticking. I out the snow board out and just took an 8hr sample that  had an additional 0.67”. Whether or not some liquid melted out the bottom and dripped off the board, I dunno. 

There’s enough weight to these 3 inches that the birches are touching the ground. I just shook off the hawk netting and bamboo for the 5th time, but hopefully that’s the last one. What a PITA for just a few inches. It goes to show you just how impactful liquid equivalent is. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

DT was right, kudos deserved for him. I was thinking in terms of how these storms often go for New England with a colder airmass. I guess this airmass really is that lame. 

It’s pretty awful for this time of year. The pattern now is ok but the record +NAM state and pac ridge combo in November left us void of any N American cold air source.  I know I’m south of you but I’m on top of a ridge in a spot that normally gets crushed by marginal good track setups and despite a textbook h5 and surface track all I could manage is a few slush bombs mixing in during the heaviest rates. Everything had to go picture perfect for this to work even up there given there was no low level cold at all to work with. 

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14 minutes ago, DomNH said:

@512high if you’re the guy plowing up and down the street in front of Fody’s we’re watching. 

LMAO ! I plow Davis Funeral Home(lock st), was there earlier, my mechanic is Maffee's Garage , I'm now at exit 5 (enjoy your beers! lucky)

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s pretty awful for this time of year. The pattern now is ok but the record +NAM state and pac ridge combo in November left us void of any N American cold air source.  I know I’m south of you but I’m on top of a ridge in a spot that normally gets crushed by marginal good track setups and despite a textbook h5 and surface track all I could manage is a few slush bombs mixing in during the heaviest rates. Everything had to go picture perfect for this to work even up there given there was no low level cold at all to work with. 

Yeah, there was no cold air. It isn’t like I was in the teens today even way up here. It was a 31/32 degree Baltimore cement job all day. Even now with NW winds ripping its 29. Just no cold air around. 

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32.1F Light snow.   1.75"   Just took a quick drive.  No snow accumulation at the bottom of my road 600 feet below me.  Roads up at my elevation are slush covered and super slippery.  Town did not treat any roads.  I think our highway dept all live down below where there is no snow.  Just shoveled my driveway before all this turns to solid ice later tonight.  Huge bust in my area.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s pretty awful for this time of year. The pattern now is ok but the record +NAM state and pac ridge combo in November left us void of any N American cold air source.  I know I’m south of you but I’m on top of a ridge in a spot that normally gets crushed by marginal good track setups and despite a textbook h5 and surface track all I could manage is a few slush bombs mixing in during the heaviest rates. Everything had to go picture perfect for this to work even up there given there was no low level cold at all to work with. 

Yep, New England was in the mid-50s for a high yesterday and no cold air coming in before the storm. Big red flag. I had the same white rain today even in the meat of the CCB which in a better airmass would drop 2"/hr. Never would've thought Boston might end up with close to the same outcome. What a waste. 

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

DT sort of raised the red flag yesterday when folks were partying over the WB maps. 

Well, no one bought those....they were like 20". But I essentially compromised between the Kuchera, which gave me like 10" and those EUROwx maps (2")....should have stayed all EUROx in a marginal set up.

I have 2".

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I should have never strayed from the tried and true snow map...there was a reason it was so paltry.

It underplayed snow in the hills of NE CT, but did well otherwise....... @Ginx snewx

Screen Shot 2020-12-05 at 8.48.40 PM.png

10" in Union vs 3ish on that map. Just as bad as if it was the other way around

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, no one bought those....they were like 20". But I essentially compromised between the Kuchera, which gave me like 10" and those EUROwx maps (2")....should have stayed all EUROx in a marginal set up.

I have 2".

Yeah those widespread 12-24” are going down in a dumpster fire.  Fascinating event from the outside.  I’m shocked.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, no one bought those....they were like 20". But I essentially compromised between the Kuchera and those EUROwx maps....should have stayed all EUROx in a marginal set up.

In hindsight we can always say this Should have been done or that but man I believe most would be sucked in again after 30 runs of different models that showed more than 10” . Even KTAN busted high for most 

Sometimes some set ups are just too difficult to accurately forecast .

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In hindsight we can always say this Should have been done or that but man I believe most would be sucked in again after 30 runs of different models that showed more snow .

Sometimes some set ups are just too difficult to accurately forecast .

Never underestimate a lousy antecedent air mass is the lesson.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Never underestimate a lousy antecedent air mass is the lesson.

Never get invested before 12/15 is a lesson I've taught myself well. I started paying attention to this like yesterday.

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We've had our share of marginal big producing events down here such as 3/21/18 (total crusher, up to 18" of cement here), 11/15/18 (not a huge event but totally unexpected, Long Island had up to 6" when we were supposed to have brief snow mix to rain) and 11/7/12 right after Sandy, but 1-2 degrees higher would've probably meant those were nothing. You would just think with a bombing nor'easter it would make it happen, and none of those other than 11/7/12 were really classic nor'easters. 3/21/18 sort of but I believe that didn't come north of HFD-PVD. 11/15/18 was mostly a big WAA event that I think you guys got in on as well. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I assume you are in one of the higher elevations in the area? 

Yep, 900+ feet in ORH. 

Paxton just west of ORH just reported 12.5”...they are up near 1200 feet. 

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As of about 8pm about 6 inches in Monson (20 miles south of Moosehead Lake, Maine), dad's lady friend posted this picture. Hoping we still clear 10 inches up that way to start getting the sleds out to pack and cut blowdowns

130190348_10157854564890886_878332977916

 

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