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Baroclinic Zone

December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In hindsight we can always say this Should have been done or that but man I believe most would be sucked in again after 30 runs of different models that showed more snow .

Sometimes some set ups are just too difficult to accurately forecast .

Never underestimate a lousy antecedent air mass is the lesson.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Never underestimate a lousy antecedent air mass is the lesson.

Never get invested before 12/15 is a lesson I've taught myself well. I started paying attention to this like yesterday.

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We've had our share of marginal big producing events down here such as 3/21/18 (total crusher, up to 18" of cement here), 11/15/18 (not a huge event but totally unexpected, Long Island had up to 6" when we were supposed to have brief snow mix to rain) and 11/7/12 right after Sandy, but 1-2 degrees higher would've probably meant those were nothing. You would just think with a bombing nor'easter it would make it happen, and none of those other than 11/7/12 were really classic nor'easters. 3/21/18 sort of but I believe that didn't come north of HFD-PVD. 11/15/18 was mostly a big WAA event that I think you guys got in on as well. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I assume you are in one of the higher elevations in the area? 

Yep, 900+ feet in ORH. 

Paxton just west of ORH just reported 12.5”...they are up near 1200 feet. 

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As of about 8pm about 6 inches in Monson (20 miles south of Moosehead Lake, Maine), dad's lady friend posted this picture. Hoping we still clear 10 inches up that way to start getting the sleds out to pack and cut blowdowns

130190348_10157854564890886_878332977916

 

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In hindsight we can always say this Should have been done or that but man I believe most would be sucked in again after 30 runs of different models that showed more than 10” . Even KTAN busted high for most 

Sometimes some set ups are just too difficult to accurately forecast .

When everyone was flipping to snow ahead of schedule I thought it was going to be a positive bust...LOL. Shows how quickly things can change. I was sure that the 128 belt was gonna get rocked. They were changing over around 2pm and it looked excellent for hours...but they just never mustered the intensity after the flip. The low level temps were a problem but I’m still surprised. I guess maybe the lift wasn’t quite lining up perfectly in DGZ which really helps in marginal setups. You need everything to go right...esp at lower elevations and perhaps that was the one ingredient missing in an otherwise perfect opportunity to overcome the marginal near-sfc layer. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Those maps Ray uses from Euro are bad 

Honestly, they are all bad in thermally questionable setups.

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Other people are getting heavy snow still right? Am I the last man standing or something?

Everyone from Maryland is getting pummeled right now.

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Other people are getting heavy snow still right? Am I the last man standing or something?

Last to get started, last to end is the NNE motto.  Need a measurement pic, get outside!... fire pit area looks like a good spot, lol.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When everyone was flipping to snow ahead of schedule I thought it was going to be a positive bust...LOL. Shows how quickly things can change. I was sure that the 128 belt was gonna get rocked. They were changing over around 2pm and it looked excellent for hours...but they just never mustered the intensity after the flip. The low level temps were a problem but I’m still surprised. I guess maybe the lift wasn’t quite lining up perfectly in DGZ which really helps in marginal setups. You need everything to go right...esp at lower elevations and perhaps that was the one ingredient missing in an otherwise perfect opportunity to overcome the marginal near-sfc layer. 

Given the reports I guess Northborough didn't do so well after all. :lol: 

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4 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

As of about 8pm about 6 inches in Monson (20 miles south of Moosehead Lake, Maine), dad's lady friend posted this picture. Hoping we still clear 10 inches up that way to start getting the sleds out to pack and cut blowdowns

130190348_10157854564890886_878332977916

 

Great pic.  6" or more of paste looks real nice.

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Other people are getting heavy snow still right? Am I the last man standing or something?

Nope, it's ripping here too. Quite a plaster job. The birches are all bent over 

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19 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

10" in Union vs 3ish on that map. Just as bad as if it was the other way around

Its off in eastern worcester county as well by a good amount. Many spots wound up with 7-10” where that map shows like 2”. We were still under forcasted amounts by NWS though. 

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2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hey man how was the trip? I made a quick spot change this am. I have no clue how my original spots doing but I’m doing fine here. Kind of wish I made the little extra trip to Maine, but no complaints. I wasn’t expected anything crazy I just didn’t get like any snow last year so I’ve been feening 

Trip was easy, except for the fishtail, accident, crashing into the  guard rail dude that was just in front of me.  Knew that was going to happening because mofo was hauling ass...way too fast.    Up to 6" here now

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Given the reports I guess Northborough didn't do so well after all. :lol: 

My guess is they had about 5 or 6 inches. Not too bad but I would’ve thought more of you asked me this morning when it was flipping pretty early. 

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30 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, there was no cold air. It isn’t like I was in the teens today even way up here. It was a 31/32 degree Baltimore cement job all day. Even now with NW winds ripping its 29. Just no cold air around. 

Yea...when it’s 31/32 at 1600 feet in northern NH under heavy precip...nuff said. 

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56 minutes ago, wdrag said:

MUCH MUCH better. Just took a look at snow fall and many of these reports were not LSR'd (I don't think).  Appreciate the update...  lots to chase at these WFO's. Some easier to note what is timely, than at others.  Do not like that statement: Latest.  Always should have date-time. Permits a person to immediately know if something is timely for their use. Done w my  complaint.  Thanks for keeping me up to speed.  Walt

You know you are a weenie when retired and "lots to chase st these WFOs"...

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even though some busted on the low side in  here ,  im extremely jealous reading all these posts from here in  nw jersey lol where i had a cold rain :(

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

My guess is they had about 5 or 6 inches. Not too bad but I would’ve thought more of you asked me this morning when it was flipping pretty early. 

I remember driving up there in Mar 2019 for a work event and seeing the huge piles of snow and being jealous. In Feb that year I had to drive to an event at the Boston Museum of Science in a sleet/ice event by me to snow in MA and praying I wouldn't die on the Mass Pike. Fun times.

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22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Other people are getting heavy snow still right? Am I the last man standing or something?

You will not see any help from your Vermont buddies tonite , just you and maybe Alex and a random Mainer 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

I remember driving up there in Mar 2019 for a work event and seeing the huge piles of snow and being jealous. In Feb that year I had to drive to an event at the Boston Museum of Science in a sleet/ice event by me to snow in MA and praying I wouldn't die on the Mass Pike. Fun times.

Ahh yes those piles were prob from the 3/4/19 storm. That was the best storm that winter. Dumped a widespread 8-16” for the eastern 2/3rds of SNE. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it isn't...just in that area.

It was accurate everywhere else. At the end of the day, they are all flawed to a degree, but they are more accurate than most.

I meant in that area.

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26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Gotta be the heaviest of the day so far based on the look in the deck spotlight. 

Looks like a break coming in a few hours unless it fills in. Is this thing supposed to be pivoting?

I doubt the dry slot makes it to you. You should stay under banding until about 2-3am then it’s upslope after that. 

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Trip was easy, except for the fishtail, accident, crashing into the  guard rail dude that was just in front of me.  Knew that was going to happening because mofo was hauling ass...way too fast.    Up to 6" here now

St. Agatha?

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