Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

[DomNH]

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Jaffery/Rindge NH over to Ashburnham MA look nice on the Goofus

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Jaffery/Rindge NH over to Ashburnham MA look nice on the Goofus

You look pretty good too, ha.

[Boston Bulldog]

Definitely more wiggle room out here with that W tick on the GFS

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You look pretty good too, ha.

Yeah...I had to laugh at his post.  

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

All about the flip. After the 00z model suite I was expecting it around noon here. A flip around that time gives us a shot at double digits.

Of course.....this is going to be one of those systems where when you measure "by the book" you got 10" but when you shovel at the end it looks like 3"

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah...I had to laugh at his post.  

Ashburnham has a couple of hundred feet of el over me       They do amazingly well.    

[Chrisrotary12]

Canadian looks like rain? 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

 

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

All about the flip. After the 00z model suite I was expecting it around noon here. A flip around that time gives us a shot at double digits.

Of course.....this is going to be one of those systems where when you measure "by the book" you got 10" but when you shovel at the end it looks like 3"

I need to see it in Bufkit before I'm entirely certain, but at 15z Sat it looks awfully close to freezing throughout the column despite being 37 at the surface. It looks like the lowest 500 m or so are above freezing for sure (~1600 ft) so that's pretty close to all snow that early in the day. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

Starts off with +1C at H95 at ASH midday tomorrow, but by afternoon that wetbulb 0C is below that level despite throwing out a 35° at 2m (976mb). 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You trace that cold side of the innermost closed contour. That's a tasty track for a lot of people on this board.

I keep watching the H5-H7 track (they are almost the same since this goes nuts so fast)....having those go over the Cape is premium for a good chunk of interior SNE and I think having them exiting out into the gulf of maine signals at least a few hours nearer to the coast around or just north of BOS.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

Ya porked us nicely with 0c 925 line regarding changes from 6z. Still close But get me out about 25 miles NW at 1k 

[Wentzadelphia]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, GFS will be too warm...I will trade the more eastern tracks for more development. Dynamics will be more valuable than that few miles of longitude.

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

Good luck not scoring bedbugs.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

Good luck and be safe.

[IowaStorm05]

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Canadian looks like rain? 

It has... and if this warmer solution verifies One could point out we aren’t exactly in an NAO negative right now... 

the Canadian has been most consistent of em all the whole time.... I feel like, predicting a warmer soltn

 

15z RAP looking great for CT but I don’t trust it for 30 hours out

[DomNH]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Starts off with +1C at H95 at ASH midday tomorrow, but by afternoon that wetbulb 0C is below that level despite throwing out a 35° at 2m (976mb). 

It's pretty warm around H85 through like 18z-19z, though.

[UnitedWx]

37 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

We will send in our Power Companies to assist, rest assured

Thank you! Neversource is significantly understaffed even compared to cl&p days

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

It's pretty warm around H85 through like 18z-19z, though.

ya so basically a later change over is what is being said. On 12z Goofus . 6Z changed over 3 hours earlier

[Damage In Tolland]

Change over time for CT looks like mid to late morning.That look about right?

[Whineminster]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ashburnham has a couple of hundred feet of el over me       They do amazingly well.    

Honestly I think the best area ends up east of us.  It almost always trends east versus west as we get closer in. I can only thing of a couple times where it went the other way. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

GGEM is a turd.  Definitely on the warm side of consensus 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

It's pretty warm around H85 through like 18z-19z, though.

Yeah...nice isothermal layer up to H8. Paste city aloft. 
 

Date: 30 hour AVN valid 18Z SAT  5 DEC 20
Station: 42.78,-71.52
Latitude:   42.78
Longitude: -71.52
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   -20                                                                 
SFC  980   145   2.8   1.9  94  0.9   2.4   4  16 277.6 278.3 276.6 289.9  4.49
  2  950   395   1.1   0.9  98  0.2   1.0  10  34 278.3 279.0 276.7 290.0  4.28
  3  900   828  -0.5  -0.5  99  0.1  -0.5  18  43 281.0 281.7 277.9 292.4  4.08
  4  850  1286   0.1  -0.0  99  0.1   0.0  41  43 286.3 287.0 280.9 299.0  4.49
  5  800  1772  -0.3  -0.4  99  0.1  -0.3  66  33 290.8 291.7 283.1 304.2  4.64
  6  750  2288  -1.3  -1.4  99  0.1  -1.4 104  37 295.2 296.0 284.8 308.7  4.59
  7  700  2836  -3.3  -3.6  98  0.3  -3.4 131  43 298.8 299.6 285.8 311.4  4.20
  8  650  3420  -5.8  -6.2  97  0.4  -6.0 139  42 302.4 303.1 286.6 313.7  3.70
  9  600  4044  -8.9  -9.4  96  0.5  -9.1 146  39 305.8 306.4 287.3 315.5  3.12
 10  550  4712 -12.5 -12.9  97  0.4 -12.7 152  39 309.2 309.7 287.9 317.4  2.57
 11  500  5434 -17.1 -17.2  99  0.1 -17.1 159  41 312.2 312.6 288.3 318.7  1.99

 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I keep watching the H5-H7 track (they are almost the same since this goes nuts so fast)....having those go over the Cape is premium for a good chunk of interior SNE and I think having them exiting out into the gulf of maine signals at least a few hours nearer to the coast around or just north of BOS.

Fall back on conceptual models and ignore the 2 m temp noise. Between 18 and 21z those winds go from NE to N in Essex Co and that should stop any warming potential for the rest of the event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

This is the GFS clown map.  Still looks great for the eastern half of NNE, we do get in a little on this one though in western NNE.

Congrats, Pat's Peak...literally.

[DomNH]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

ya so basically a later change over is what is being said. On 12z Goofus . 6Z changed over 3 hours earlier

Yep. Still probably a sick thump GFS verbatim. Any more NW tics though and we're probably on the outside looking in enjoying 1-2'' of slop at the end.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Good luck not scoring bedbugs.

Hotel is at about 650' on the dot. Better than where i am lol

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Change over time for CT looks like mid to late morning.That look about right?

yeah that's what I'm thinking. maybe even early-to-mid morning for hills

[Snowcrazed71]

So do you guys think that the National Weather Service will put some watches up in to Connecticut now?