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December 2020 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Models are adamant on a lake effect band setting up from Toronto to Hamilton on Wednesday A lot of it depends on the storm track. A further north track will mean a stouter lake effect band due to better cloud seeding from the storm. The 3km NAM has moisture getting up north to Ohio which is good for our region. Potential is definitely there for 2-4"+. 

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

It's a start... Winter conditions have arrived a lil bit.  18 with a w/c of 13, has snowed 2" overnight.  Temp should continue falling to around 12 degrees by noon... 4.5" otg  :lol: 

Wow, that’s pretty crazy you guys only have that much on the ground right now, very unusual for sure. At least you know it’s not if but when the snow will start to pile up and get deep up there. You’ll probably still be below average come the 1st of the year but I would bet you guys will have a decent snowpack building by then. Down here in northern lower we have a decent start snow wise after this weekends storm but it’s anyone’s guess if it will continue building or be gone by new year’s. It was snowing out pretty good a bit ago here at Higgins, some lake effect, saying another 1-2” today but more to the north and west of us.

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From pattern recognition, a Miller B redevelopment on the East Coast is almost always good for some accumulating lake effect in WI/IL. Looks like we will be seeding the lake clouds from the synoptic system thanks to the subtle N/W shift in the upper-level waves. Should be good for at least mood flakes late tomorrow AM into the night. 

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3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

From pattern recognition, a Miller B redevelopment on the East Coast is almost always good for some accumulating lake effect in WI/IL. Looks like we will be seeding the lake clouds from the synoptic system thanks to the subtle N/W shift in the upper-level waves. Should be good for at least mood flakes late tomorrow AM into the night. 

take it to the bank folks

 

 

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the 12z hi-res guidance is generally .1-.2 liquid on this side of the lake but I'm gonna ride the ukmet obv

Plot twist, Alek's backyard as the snow capital of the Chicago metro. 

 

Edit: In all seriousness though, the LES parameters aren't terrible tomorrow from a thermodynamics perspective and duration as well. When I looked yesterday, lake induced ELs were peaking on the forecast soundings at 6k-7k feet, which is a bit better than marginal. The problem is the possibility as partial ice loss as we lose saturation in a portion of the DGZ. Overall DGZ saturation won't be great and lift peaks below it, so flake size should be pixies. Hoping the FZDZ monster is avoided.

 

 

 

 

 

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