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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffmantimeframe for the archambault event when the blocking breaks down? Jan 3 Blizzard?

Jan 7. Should start in northern VA with pixie dust around 10PM temp near 18*. About a foot by morning. Some dry slotting during the day before a killer deform finish the next night. About 24” at Dulles. ~30 by you. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Jan 7. Should start in northern VA with pixie dust around 10PM temp near 18*. About a foot by morning. Some dry slotting during the day before a killer deform finish the next night. About 24” at Dulles. ~30 by you. 

the models 48 hours before the storm will have 2 feet in Richmond and 4-8 in DC and 1 inch in philly to too right?

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5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Sheesh... does the ENS control even have any support from the mean? Hell of a way to run a strong NAO block with 50/50 confluence and a high over SE canada.

I think someone posted the individual MSLPs but it's got a few members on its side. Lows became less clustered from 12z to 18z.

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39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Fun fact with this event...the Ohio primary ended up stronger than progged, BUT the transfer to the coastal was pretty quick. A rare instance where up north into the PA mason/dixon counties boomed and DC didn't switch to rain. This was a rare wind for eveyone.

One of the oddities of that storm was how the pacific and the blocking played off each other. Like I said earlier everything depends on so many variables. The pac was a mess. Deep Trough in AK and crashing into the west coast. Normally anything would have cut. But there was the most ridiculous block, centered right near Baffin with a ginormous 50/50 stuck under it at the same time. So all it did was take all the Nino STJ and direct it straight up into a massive wall of confluence.  Take away the Uber blocking and that pac configuration wouldn’t work. Put a pna ridge and that confluence probably suppresses anything that has to develop with a further east trough axis. That was a combination of factors that only worked in conjunction with each other.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One of the oddities of that storm was how the pacific and the blocking played off each other. Like I said earlier everything depends on so many variables. The pac was a mess. Deep Trough in AK and crashing into the west coast. Normally anything would have cut. But there was the most ridiculous block, centered right near Baffin with a ginormous 50/50 stuck under it at the same time. So all it did was take all the Nino STJ and direct it straight up into a massive wall of confluence.  Take away the Uber blocking and that pac configuration wouldn’t work. Put a pna ridge and that confluence probably suppresses anything that has to develop with a further east trough axis. That was a combination of factors that only worked in conjunction with each other.  

Outside of ‘96 that was the single greatest storm for me in northern DE.  Just poured snow for a good 16 hours +. Ended up with 27” of cold powder. Then 4 days later got another 21”. 4 feet in 4 days will never be topped again in this area. 

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anyone remember that run in Jan 2016 where the12z Euro took us from 25 or so inches to 17 inches and there was one of the biggest panic attacks of all time....of course it bounced back in the 00z run but that was like the longest 12 hours of my life lol

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

anyone remember that run in Jan 2016 where the12z Euro took us from 25 or so inches to 17 inches and there was one of the biggest panic attacks of all time....of course it bounced back in the 00z run but that was like the longest 12 hours of my life lol

Bounced back in a big way at 00z. Barely wavered inside of 144. 

1941EDAC-5C01-49BE-8EF7-425CBA289B97.png

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Sheesh... does the ENS control even have any support from the mean? Hell of a way to run a strong NAO block with 50/50 confluence and a high over SE canada.

no one with a brain  should  ever look at  the  EPS  or GEFS  control runs

 the only met   I know that does that is a ****ing  idiot Henry M

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

It is so freaking close here to it being a bigger deal. 2M in the mid 30s along the 81 corridor. I’m hoping rates can possibly turn it over to a wet a** snow. Looks great for the DC crew and that’s with it having a known warm bias.

0B8AACDE-4EF2-4727-B66A-9DDD9B8E890C.png

112CC2A6-EBB3-41C4-9B6A-A1875D874E39.png

 counting on the ICON  for  snowstorm    is a  LOSE   situation

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