December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

LWX Winter Threat 7 is currently at "Yellow"/Slight for west of 95 and the mountains.   I don't think outside the mountains last year had anything but Green.  

[mappy]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

LWX Winter Threat 7 is currently at "Yellow"/Slight for west of 95 and the mountains.   I don't think outside the mountains last year had anything but Green.  

I think there is one day in January where my area and west were yellow, got 5 or 6 out of that one. pretty much the only good event up this way.

[LP08]

Beating a dead horse but...woof

[JakkelWx]

Here's our gift for missing out on the past couple years.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Here's our gift for missing out on the past couple years.

Build the h5 pattern and the snow maps will come 

[WxUSAF]

^keanuwhoa.gif

Based on the maps I’ve seen, Eps looks really really nice. Cold and with a more southern transfer to the coast than the Op. Getting tingly. 

[SnowLover22]

5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Here's our gift for missing out on the past couple years.

wow with a mean like that there must be some big hits for DC. How do the individuals look.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Where’s weather will with the 3” probability map?

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

wow with a mean like that there must be some big hits for DC. How do the individuals look.

Here they are. A couple that jackpot SE of DC, surprisingly, which inspires some confidence

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS 3 inches or more Day 7.

[JakkelWx]

 

[poolz1]

Stronger high and better placement + earlier transfer.....a trend toward a classic look today.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Clustering 

 

Beautiful!! Only one left in Ohio. Strong storms off hatteras. Giggity giggity.

[clskinsfan]

Got stuck in a meeting so couldn't watch the Euro as it came out. But there is excellent agreement btmetween the Euro and Gfs at this point that Shenandoah Valley is gonna get clocked next week. God this is so much more fun than last years debacle. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Beautiful!! Only one left in Ohio. Strong storms off hatteras. Giggity giggity.

For 120+ HR out, that's a strong signal.

[PhineasC]

Hope this pans out down here. 

[Snowchaser]

I’m feeling solid about this storm upcoming in Cville. I think we all have a great chance of seeing 3”+

[jaydreb]

Yeah, when the Euro, GFS and ensembles all agree on something at range, plus it fits the overall pattern, that is a pretty typical signal for our bigger storms.  

[WxUSAF]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Yeah, when the Euro, GFS and ensembles all agree on something at range, plus it fits the overall pattern, that is a pretty typical signal for our bigger storms.  

Yup. Just remember the calendar and adjust accordingly. But a really nice 12z suite. 6 days to go. 

[JakkelWx]

Water temperatures. They are still in the upper 40s/low 50s off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This could be a potential problem with mixing towards the coast

[Ji]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. Just remember the calendar and adjust accordingly. But a really nice 12z suite. 6 days to go. 

 

[WxUSAF]

WPC hazard plot highlights the area for “Heavy Precipitation” on the 16/17th. Heavy rain southeast of DC/Baltimore, heavy snow for PA mountains up into western and northern New England. 

[jaydreb]

 

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WPC hazard plot highlights the area for “Heavy Precipitation” on the 16/17th. Heavy rain southeast of DC/Baltimore, heavy snow for PA mountains up into western and northern New England. 

How’s Carbondale looking?  NE Md pummeled?

[RDM]

Stepped away for a while...  Upon returning 4 hours later the message ticker said "125+ messages"  Brings a smile and that special feeling we all get when "it's on!"   

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Hope this pans out down here. 

LOL exactly

[NorthArlington101]

48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WPC hazard plot highlights the area for “Heavy Precipitation” on the 16/17th. Heavy rain southeast of DC/Baltimore, heavy snow for PA mountains up into western and northern New England. 

[NorthArlington101]

Also: ICON has really shifted back towards having a storm on Monday. We need some cold, but that storm has really trended back.

[clskinsfan]

This is a pretty nice CAD signature out of the Euro for mid December. Have to use 850 because I dont have access to the surface. But it still looks nice.

 

[CAPE]

Mount Holly mentions the potential in their AFD..

On Tuesday into Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low right along the coast. This would bring precipitation to the entire forecast area starting Wednesday morning, and continuing into Wednesday night. As of now, it looks like this would be a rain/snow event. As always, the track will determine the p-types. But it looks like much of the area could see some snow at some point during the evening, with an accumulating snow possible for some areas. We`re still a week away, so we`ll have several changes before then, but definitely worth watching.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep... to me it looks like some possible snow n+w verbatim especially with that track  .  Its close and icon thermals don't seem to be the best normally. 

Gfs and euro both have 850 cold enough but below that is pretty torched.