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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you can only have one and the other will we total garbage the pac is better. We have more snows from pac help and a disaster atl then the other way. However, that assumes both the epo and pna are hostile. The advantage of high latitude blocking in a Nina is if you get enough ridging into the western NAO and AO domain it’s going to apply pressure on the TPV to either retrograde west just enough to pop a pna ridge...the you have a +epo, +pna -AO/NAO which is a great snow pattern or you get the tpv to drop into the west and pop an epo ridge and get a -epo -pna -AO/NAO which is also good. It’s hard with a great looK up top for the pac to remain total garbage in both the epo and pna domains. 

It would be nice to get a -EPO, -PNA, -AO and -NAO. A east based negative NAO would be better than a west based one. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s the best look up top we’ve had in years...some ppl are just getting antsy because there isn’t a blizzard on the Gfs yet lol 

i remember the 18-19 winter...the euro weeklies kept advertising this but it never came to pass

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i remember the 18-19 winter...the euro weeklies kept advertising this but it never came to pass

Yes except we aren’t chasing a day 16 fantasy. The NAO ridging has already begun to develop and by 72 hours we have a legit -AO/NAO that holds and even strengthens through the rest of the run on ALL guidance. 

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One thing that’s giving me the warm fuzzies is that we see a great look up top develop within 10 days from now and not really relent through the remainder of the run. Looking at the GEFS, we see the -AO and -NAO and a decent look on the Pacific side, as well.

It'll suck if we don’t score in the next couple weeks, but if we can set this as the base atmospheric state for the season then we WILL score sooner rather than later.

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1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

NOAA is thinking this will be a mountain event for Monday. Western Virginia, West Virginia into western Pennsylvania.

If true, this could really help the ski resorts out.

 

Honestly a 10% chance of 0.25” of snow/sleet QPF for D5 for the mountains of MD and WV could probably be shown all winter long.  

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