December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

If it’s a true MillerB, they work around DC about 10%  of the time and Baltimore 25%. They always form too far NE. From Aberdeen northward can do well but generally Wilmington and north 

You are correct if it’s a pure northern stream dominant miller b.  But there are A/B hybrids. If there is enough STJ involvement and the phase/transfer happens far enough south those can work. Right now this looks like a hybrid. Lots of STJ involvement.  I think we have more of a chance here then with a pure miller B. But unless it’s a pure miller A there is always a risk the storm develops too late for us. 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You are correct if it’s a pure northern stream dominant miller b.  But there are A/B hybrids. If there is enough STJ involvement and the phase/transfer happens far enough south those can work. Right now this looks like a hybrid. Lots of STJ involvement.  I think we have more of a chance here then with a pure miller B. But unless it’s a pure miller A there is always a risk the storm develops too late for us. 

Aren't most of our big storms Miller B's anyway? Miller A's seem like unicorns these days.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS.  Monday stronger, colder than at 12Z.

Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle.

[Buddy1987]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle.

Which one would you personally put your money on for down this way based on model guidance. I was more or less transferring all my eggs to Wednesday but Euro and GFS keeps me interested for Monday.

[JakkelWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Which one would you personally put your money on for down this way based on model guidance. I was more or less transferring all my eggs to Wednesday but Euro keeps me interested for Monday.

Why not both? 

[Weather Will]

It is December 10.  I grew up inside the DC Beltway and am used to no snow until late January if I was lucky.  Patience.  Or like me move N & W....

[CAPE]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Why not both? 

Still not overly enthused about Monday for our area, but it isn't dead. The mid week period holds more potential, but plenty of details to be resolved. In short, we simply cannot know. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Aren't most of our big storms Miller B's anyway? Miller A's seem like unicorns these days.

That can get way in the weeds because people argue over the definitions.  Is a miller B any storm that goes up west of the apps and jumps?  Only northern stream systems that jump and develop. Some mix?  Where does it go from A to B?  Most storm jump somewhere. Actually all storms jump since pressure centers are always redeveloping. But those jumps are often minor.  So when a gulf system gets into GA then jumps to off the Carolina coast we don’t say anything. When a storm jumps from Ohio to off VA that’s a bit more significant so it gets a different classification.  I don’t really like to waste time arguing about definitions and terminology.  So it just depends.  Rule is the more STJ dominant the better.  Further south the transfer and or phase the better!  Closer to a miller A the better.  But a pure miller A is rare.  And even those rules aren’t 100%  March 2013 we had a northern stream handoff that jumped so far south due to an Uber block that we got screwed and the heavier banding set up by Richmond.  Everything is a matter of degrees.  Everything depends on lots of variables.  Even the perfect track depends on how mature and deep the low is and the thermal profile around it.  

 

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Still not overly enthused about Monday for our area, but it isn't dead. The mid week period holds more potential, but plenty of details to be resolved. In short, we simply cannot know. 

Is the midweek storm your typical Miller B?

[CAPE]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Is the midweek storm your typical Miller B?

Recent runs seem to be moving away from that idea. Stay tuned!

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

26 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Aren't most of our big storms Miller B's anyway? Miller A's seem like unicorns these days.

hybrid

[WinterWxLuvr]

When does the 18z euro come out? I’m curious to see what it says about Monday

[WinterWxLuvr]

Wasn’t PD II a hybrid?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

HH euro a bit colder at the surface at 87 hr.

What about precip? Without it it doesn’t matter how cold it is 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

HH euro a bit colder at the surface at 87 hr.

And how far out does it go?

[JakkelWx]

Not sure if Feb 2010 was also a hybrid. There were two lows, one off the OBX and another near West Virginia but I still don't think it fits.

I'm guessing just because there are two lows doesn't make a hybrid

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Is the midweek storm your typical Miller B?

I think we need the primary in TN/KY..OH no bueno for our latitude. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Euro definitely colder .Lower  Hieghts out in front definitely helped.  Lot less interaction with the ns . Maybe a good thing in this case 

We suffer from lack of cold more than lack of precipitation.  This is good news I think. 

[Heisy]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think we need the primary in TN/KY..OH no bueno for our latitude. 

You can still get thumps, but I agree for major snows that is where you want it with hybrids.

[Weather Will]

WB EURO hour 90.  Seems a little slower.  That has to affect things later in the week...

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO hour 90.  Seems a little slower.  That has to affect things later in the week...

For me, I see very little chance that a low near Atlanta can somehow slide straight out to sea. At least I think we’d get precip with that.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For me, I see very little chance that a low near Atlanta can somehow slide straight out to sea. At least I think we’d get precip with that.

Tend to agree. Probably a glancing blow but something. That precip map shows you need heavier precip and dynamical cooling to get some snow. Timing of the shortwave relative to the cold air is also key. Want things a little slower. Seems HH euro did that.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO hour 90.  Seems a little slower.  That has to affect things later in the week...

Depends. There wasn’t much correlation on the GEFS members between the two systems. I checked. There is enough separation (as of now). I think the mid week threat is more dependent on the high/confluence and the interaction of the STJ with the NS. 

[Wonderdog]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For me, I see very little chance that a low near Atlanta can somehow slide straight out to sea. At least I think we’d get precip with that.

It would head straight for Hatteras

[DTWXRISK]

MON DEC 14  looks like a cold rain to me... the  850 mb is cold enough   but 925  and surface temps are   way too warm   

even in the mountains

[DTWXRISK]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle.

   again     very much like  12z  euro//eps 

 

 again     east coast  storms   EURO  leading    with consistency

[Snowchaser]

2 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

  WED   DEC 14  looks like a cold rain to me... the  850 mb is cold enough   but 925  and surface temps are   way too warm   

even in the mountains

Even in the mountains?! What are you smoking? 

 

[DTWXRISK]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS 18Z.  Coastal low not as organized?

   its the  18z GFS  dont care...   WHY?

LOOK at the 18z GEFS ... the differences  between the  OP  GFS  and   the 18z GEFS are   significant   which   tells me  that  the op GFS  is still  not  getting it 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

  WED   DEC 14  looks like a cold rain to me... the  850 mb is cold enough   but 925  and surface temps are   way too warm   

even in the mountains

Wed or the 14th? 

[DTWXRISK]

5 hours ago, Snowchaser said:

I’m feeling solid about this storm upcoming in Cville. I think we all have a great chance of seeing 3”+

  yes ... CANT   wait to move there in March