December 2020 Discussion

[weathafella]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Going to be seeing a lot of that in SNE over the next few weeks 

You’re back!

[dendrite]

Euro pops a weak sfc low with that in enough time for Maine.

[ORH_wxman]

Man, that block over the arctic ocean just rots the entire run basically.

It does keep that PV pinned down in Canada....and with the NAO not hostile (even favorable at several intervals), it's not a bad look overall. It's a look that definitely provides a lot of chances. It's a very active flow. None of the timing was great this run, but that is small scale nuance that can change easily.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah verbatim sucks, but I also expect it to change. It's a parade of s/w's.

[MJO812]

12z geps likes the mid month storm

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah verbatim sucks, but I also expect it to change. It's a parade of s/w's.

Yep....without a massive standing PNA wave like 2015 or a 2010-2011 NAO block, you're always going to have some level of nuance that requires lining up for events. Those SWFE patterns in Dec '07 or '08 easily could have failed. This one could too, but my gut is that at least one of these works out in the next 2 weeks or so.

It's active and there's legit cold pinned down into Canada.

[ORH_wxman]

I also expect modeling to be horrible for individual threats out in the medium range....remember, this is La Nina with some high arctic blocking. Probably the worst setup for model guidance to be accurate with individual storm threats. Too many S/Ws coming from terrible data coverage regions (this includes the satellite coverage which gets distorted up in the arctic).

 

[SnoSki14]

The upcoming pattern isn't that bad at all. It's a lot better than I expected given all the doom and gloom forecasts. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Get out in it saturday night and sunday morning....should be a solid event if you love 35F rain.

My wife and daughter are heading to Old Sturbridge Village for a Christmas thing Sat evening.  Looks like the Grinch lived in olden days too. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like EPS have a coastal mid week

next week. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like EPS have a coastal mid week

next week. 

Awesome signal

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife and daughter are heading to Old Sturbridge Village for a Christmas thing Sat evening.  Looks like the Grinch lived in olden days too. 

Drizzle up to thy knickers?

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty classic Miller B sig.....hopefully it stays

 

[CoastalWx]

HP and Miller B. We pray it holds.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HP and Miller B. We pray it holds.

It will be a cutter within a couple days, lol. But at the same time, some threat will probably appear of nowhere inside of 6 days. That seems to happen a lot in these blocky Nina patterns.

At any rate, this is way better than a one-eyed pig pattern where you don't even need to really look at the models for any threats and instead you are staring at ensembles out to 360h hoping to see when it finally might break down. That feeling of hopelessness like we saw for long stretches last year.

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty classic Miller B sig.....hopefully it stays

 

That’d be a nice birthday present, one day early. Most years I wait until after 12/18 for the first significant SF. 

[Mothman]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It will be a cutter within a couple days, lol. But at the same time, some threat will probably appear of nowhere inside of 6 days. That seems to happen a lot in these blocky Nina patterns.

At any rate, this is way better than a one-eyed pig pattern where you don't even need to really look at the models for any threats and instead you are staring at ensembles out to 360h hoping to see when it finally might break down. That feeling of hopelessness like we saw for long stretches last year.

I have nightmares where I'm just doing this. Refreshing TT pages and holding back tears as cicadas sound nearby in the December dusk. 

[Mothman]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty classic Miller B sig.....hopefully it stays

 

A sight for sore eyes. That would be tasty. I'm sure it will oscillate and shift and play with our emotions a bit...but as everyone else has said, it's kinda exciting to be able to track multiple things that aren't historic torches. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It will be a cutter within a couple days, lol. But at the same time, some threat will probably appear of nowhere inside of 6 days. That seems to happen a lot in these blocky Nina patterns.

At any rate, this is way better than a one-eyed pig pattern where you don't even need to really look at the models for any threats and instead you are staring at ensembles out to 360h hoping to see when it finally might break down. That feeling of hopelessness like we saw for long stretches last year.

I’m hopeful something breaks right even if it’s an advisory. Seems Ike there’s no shortage of s/w’s. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I despise miller B’s but any miller is better than no miller at all.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm wondering ...well, 'suspecting' .. that the flat trajectory in an anomalously fast hemisphere coming off the Pacific into western N/A is proving the operational models as being far worse than the technological hubris thinks of itself... 

If the EPS solution is right with 51 members at D8/9 ... than the operational Euro should never be run again -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Today was the most snow we’ve had in Greenfield since October 30 .25” Yay! 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I despise miller B’s but any miller is better than no miller at all.

It’s almost Miller time!  Hopefully the Millers aren’t out of code and skunked. 

[Spanks45]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I despise miller B’s but any miller is better than no miller at all.

Ones that develop early. IF they need to, they can run right through Rhode Island as a fully developed system, time for the western crew to score on a few of these.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I despise miller B’s but any miller is better than no miller at all.

I can understand your issues with them.
 

I don’t mind them at all actually.  I’ve done really well here with them in the past...some of the biggest for me have been B’s.  I know you’re more west than I, and sometimes that’s the just the difference between a big hit and something more moderate.  And sometimes everybody west of Windham sucks exhaust. 
 

Obviously Jan/Feb ‘15 wasn’t as favorable here as it could have been...but that’s part of the gamble with those.  All of Jan ‘11 and Feb 13 were huge hits here with those B’s.  So I’ll gladly take my Chances where I am with them any day. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The upcoming pattern isn't that bad at all. It's a lot better than I expected given all the doom and gloom forecasts. 

Its a nice December pattern with a good arctic/atlantic, and a subpar Pac....precisely AWT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is all that matters.

 

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like EPS have a coastal mid week

next week. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m hopeful something breaks right even if it’s an advisory. Seems Ike there’s no shortage of s/w’s. 

I'd be shocked if we end up below average snowfall this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I despise miller B’s but any miller is better than no miller at all.

I don't think this is a set up where you would whiff, since we have some NAO to slow things down a tad...probably just won't JP...but lets get the storm within a week first.

[MJO812]