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40/70 Benchmark

December 2020 Discussion

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, def not shocked to see the big bomb end up more of a firecracker. 

Word ... I just saw the 12z GFS re the foreground deal and it's really middling as a cyclone depth at best...  barely less that mid 990's MB ... It's spacial ... large though - so in that sense/math it'll carry on with a decent extra-tropical ISE ...  It probably still - as is - has enough mid level tropospheric wave mechanics to really have been a bigger deal .. but this blown open busted ravioli thing is very spring -like... it smacks like a combination of correction working on it.. One, the relay off the Pac may prove weaker than the model zealotry ( heh ), but it's also neutralizing early April D11 bomb that ends up weaker because seasonal migration exposing the weakening thermal gradients ( baroclinic layout) due to the sun... Only here? we have pallid cold and GW cooking the fronts to death... lol

Nah... kidding on the GWl - eh hm...a little - but if we did have colder air, we probably would have changed this in a lot of feed-back reasons toward an different total evolution.  Cold BL resistance forces coastal ...and that feeds-back by height falls then drawing the deeper layer E...and that also conserves the faster flow better...

Probably spend more time than I care to on this thing ... it's thee transition system the heralds the PNA change - I've maintained that ...  We'll see what happens later on -

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Inland runner for 2nd storm near the 5th on all the models

That thing is a hail mary at best. Absolutely putrid airmass out ahead of it. Maybe a little better than a hail mary for NNE, but not by a lot.

Really, the better pattern is beyond the first week of December.

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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Inland runner for 2nd storm near the 5th on all the models

mm..  12z oper. GFS isn't an "inland" solution...   no sense in overstating the matter lol.   I mean there may be some subjective hand throwing but, inland is more definitively west... Like, PA with only paltry commitment toward a 'dent' on a warm front. Now that's inland.. .

This?  this is a coastal low... It's just not ideal... 

We don't have -8 C 850 mb entry temp slabbed down E along the coastal plain while a 974 mb low passes a stones throw east of ISP no.  

Folks need to be "fluid" in their chart interpretations - I suspect there's too much snap shot grousing that happens.   To each is own... sure. But that solution is fine for this range in a rising PNA.

 

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On 11/26/2020 at 10:21 AM, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget, there rarely is such thing as a persistent '14-'15 type pattern. Many times, our pattern are sort of in between good and garbage. The reasons why sometimes these break right (like Dec 07 for instance) is because of some subtle, but notable distinctions in where features like troughs and ridges are placed.

So it doesn't do a lot of good when you see something not 100% perfect and get all bent out of shape. I don't see anything wrong as a whole on the EPS, especially by December standards. Looking forward to a change.

Paging Uncle Leo.

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So two Bomb screamer soueasters that cut waaaay west and then a slight chance of a few snow threats. I guess that’s better than no chance anyway .

Not west enough unfortunately....

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Edit: I screwed this up - left image is last year.

I don't pay for Weatherbell, but he went colder for New England (and out here actually), with more warmth in the South. Anyone know if he changed analogs? He had like 1973, 1988, 2010, 2010 as the blend for a while, but like +1 warmer than the raw blend of those years.

Weatherbell-Winter-Forecast

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37 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I don't pay for Weatherbell, but he went colder for New England (and out here actually), with more warmth in the South. Anyone know if he changed analogs? He had like 1973, 1988, 2010, 2010 as the blend for a while, but like +1 warmer than the raw blend of those years.

Weatherbell-Winter-Forecast

I don’t know how reliable but better than the other way around.  

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57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

every model cycle(s) inch the region closer ....

image.thumb.png.de564cc5c7ba7ad0f08733921e2ce8a4.png

We all love a bomb sitting over PWM.  Just need to hold that position for 32 more model runs.

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I would love to take my chances with that look. Dancing with the devil. 

Definitely a poor air mass ahead of it but that one is worth watching for NNE.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We all love a bomb sitting over PWM.  Just need to hold that position for 32 more model runs.

Sure I'll be dead calm while you play naked Twister on the picnic tables.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I really love a bomb sitting over PWM.  Just need to hold that position for 32 more model runs.

We know.

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Right ... hence the operative "every cycle inches closer" phrase ... hello -

that run sucks by the way - one shouldn't wanna hold that for 32 cycles any more than a steaming pile of feces ... but if you say so :)

Nah, the runs have been - subjectively ... - materializing a cooler profile - as in 'trend' ? - and a deeper system, which frankly is more likely during that limb of the PNA rise than the foreground system ever was...

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I almost feel like DIT... making a comment knowing it just cannot be left alone to simmer out there without a correction :lol:.

The NNE crew is growing, now having regular posters @PhineasC in N.NH snow country and @bwt3650 living at Jay Peak.  At least we'll get more posts during those events now.

Hope we all get to enjoy a good snowstorm in December.  From the ocean to the mountains.

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A great storm for many!

A total disaster in Hartford..... and that matters.... what came later made up for it no question.....we wait

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3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

A total disaster in Hartford..... and that matters.... what came later made up for it no question.....we wait

A big Tip melt that night...lol.  18-20 around Boston with exhaust over Ayer-maybe 6-7 tops?

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