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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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7 minutes ago, radarman said:

I know it's been mentioned here dozens of times here already, but LOL if that STJ wave train on the GFS comes to pass in a legit nina.  Just glad we're in the obs/nowcasting business and not the forecasting business.    That's a helluva tricky business.

Oh they are scrambling for sure. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of these exotically warm ratter calls have the potential to be over before they begin.

From a forecast standpoint, some are doing a 180 for part of December, depending on where you live. The thinking is back half of December returns to Nina, but I don't know if there is confidence.

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

From a forecast standpoint, some are doing a 180 for part of December, depending on where you live. The thinking is back half of December returns to Nina, but I don't know if there is confidence.

 

My thought has always been after xmas and potentially beyond the first week of January for a deterioration...but the big PNA is a surprise to me, and I would think that would be more fleeting.

I think the polar domain and EPO will take a bit longer to go to crap.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw some work showing a few stronger Ninas did have a +PNA in December. 

Yea, I could miss on that. I am nervous about that portion of my call right now. However, I like my forecast for a near neutral PNA on a seasonal level. All things considered, I think I am looking better than the consensus for the month of December.

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. I think this ends up more warmer in the end, but man that’s a lot of QPF on all guidance.

un-related note...

... can the next person that brings up drought in this social-media's sphere be chastised and ridiculed beyond the very endurance of man please -  every f'n June with this gig ya know -  ugh

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

un-related note...

... can the next person that brings up drought in this social-media's sphere be chastised and ridiculed beyond the very endurance of man please -  every f'n June with this gig ya know -  ugh

Its mostly Bob with the drought fetish.

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My only hope with this is that it substantially contributes to wave breaking down the line. I couldn't care less how deep the low gets if it doesn't result in a great deal of snowfall for Methuen. I'm not one to massage my own prostate while counting isobars on social media, unless its tropical in nature. This ends in banal sensible appeal for these parts one way or another.

Give me a 1000mb low over the benchmark with cold in place.

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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The 12z GFS is such a weird depiction with the swirling, meandering lows. 

I'm thinking part of the issue with that 'swirling' non-committed center ... it's very spring-like -

Sometimes the mid and extended early April chart will have a deep mid level gyre that looks quite menacing, but has a comparatively weak surface reflection rattling around underneath. Basically in both scenarios such as that ...and probably this?  - there's no cold air at low levels to force the frontal structures.  

It's complex fluid/thermodynamic stuff ... but sharper fronts do things like make upward vertical motion be more "up" ...and not diffusely spread out over broader, shallower frontal surface areas, where by the restoring up under the lifting air regions are also thus spread out - that 'spread out' opens up the low ... with that sort of busted ravioli mess   -

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. 

Question is will it fire up the SE ridge or will any higher heights in NAO region push the cold into the east?

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