November 2020 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just an observation ... but it seems the gradient weakened a little ( overall ..orbital perspective ) bit less than a week ago, and this ridge seemed to immediately balloon.

Meanwhile, prior...we had a cold pattern and early tantalizing notions of winter and of course the significant realization/event came of that ...and while that was happening, heights between Florida and Bermuda ...never really deflated... 

I used to refer to the "Miami Rule" ... it was basically:   if the heights over MIA were greater than 582 dm, and the balanced geostrophic winds were above 30 kts at 500 mb ...that means that S/W are entering a destructive interference pattern ... when ejecting E of 110 W/ along ~ mid latitudes.  

This strikes me as related... The snow event we experienced was along a narrow latitude - which is consistent with fast flow neggie interference ... stretching in the longitude.  The event's specific morphology fit - 

Also, as soon as the flow 'relaxed' in a large eddy sense of it...the ridge immediately ...almost reflexively bounces back -   ... 

Interesting... 

The autman has two distinct complexions ... and this also fits with the observation that there is a tendency for huge temperature variances - even relative to transition season typology - setting up along 45 N in the means...  We are going into late summer vs early winter across 300 naut mi over the Continent, which is ...6 hours of advection at any given region near-by from excessively flipping between the two.   But, what's intriguing is to see that without substantive cyclogenesis... Usually, big baroclinic variance results in deeper/larger system behavior. 

I think the speedy nature of the flow is inhibitory...leaving big gradients sort of 'unrealizing' in the means.   Just a hypothesis -

I remember and always use that.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You don't know that. Hell, even in that 97-98 inferno I scored nearly 50".

I’m going under 25” here . Think it’s going to be absolutely brutal 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m going under 25” here . Think it’s going to be absolutely brutal 

It could be.

I don't think the Pacific will be as consistently brutal as some expect, though.

[klw]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Odd to be driving around with snow on the ground and yet I’m in shorts and t-shirt and the car says it’s 67F.

Well it happens here every April.

[Typhoon Tip]

Course the original signal is fighting back... 

heh -

[dendrite]

70.0°

[Dr. Dews]

73.3 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Course the original signal is fighting back... 

heh -

Yes, I've notice the "fold over -epo"...or whatever you called it....on the last few GFS runs.

[moneypitmike]

There were still a few piles when I walked the dog yesterday morning.  Needless to say, they're long gone.

The leaves are taking a little longer than I anticipated.  Make that a lot longer.  I'm glad I took a half day to get an early start on them.

[powderfreak]

At least 69F today, hopefully MVL popped a 70F.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m going under 25” here . Think it’s going to be absolutely brutal 

I haven’t felt it either and you could tell Ray is a concerned as well that the under to his forecasted range has a good chance of hitting. 

It is what it is. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I haven’t felt it either and you could tell Ray is a concerned as well that the under to his forecasted range has a good chance of hitting. 

It is what it is. 

Hey if we’re right it’ll give us plenty of days for beer drinking , high times and yard work outdoors this winter. May reseed some areas in Jan or Feb , plant perennials etc 

[tamarack]

Low 60s here, with more to come.  Prior to this year, we've had 60+ in November 16 times in 22 years with only 1999 hitting the mark as many as 3 times.  Reached 71 in 2003 and 66 the year before while 63 (4X) is 3rd.  I'd guess that frequency will be eclipsed this month - might have 5-6 reach 60 - and we might get to the 66 but I doubt 71 is in play here.

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey if we’re right it’ll give us plenty of days for beer drinking , high times and yard work outdoors this winter. May reseed some areas in Jan or Feb , plant perennials etc 

Lol.. For any of you young-ens reading this, do not jump off the cliff.  We're bound to see some surprises this Winter

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Yes, I've notice the "fold over -epo"...or whatever you called it....on the last few GFS runs.

Two different things ... -EPO vs the 'folding hypothesis'

 But they mimic one another... Folding is just high velocity flow over the Pac encountering the back-logging of the continent and that exaggerates the perennial N/A pattern response and makes the ridge in western Canada burgeon more frequently...

The EPO is basically the whole region from the N-central Pac to Alaska and N BC.... And heights can and do rise into blocking in that region from other reasons... related to everything from PDO to west Pac TC recurvatures... to R-waves.  

Hard to say ...but the GEFs have an AO dive still after the 16 and the NAO too... and those aren't really related to 'folding hypothesis' if you will.. So with the AO going down, and a few members of both the EPS and GFS ensembles buckin for the strong MJO phase 8... - it's thin but not zero chance for that signal to return in earnest.   we'll see...

For the record?  I don't see November going down 74 F as the mean high -

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey if we’re right it’ll give us plenty of days for beer drinking , high times and yard work outdoors this winter. May reseed some areas in Jan or Feb , plant perennials etc 

Alcohol 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Alcohol 

Dinky’s

[powderfreak]

This evening's sunset was pretty good around 4:30pm.  Crazy how early the sun falls below the horizon this time of year. 

Very mild out too... felt like a late-summer evening, happening in the middle of the afternoon.  A mini-mud season.

Wave like feature curling over the Green Mtn Spine.  

[Dan76]

Hour later last week.

[Ginx snewx]

Not even top ten for drought in New England,  we laugh at that Stein guy

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This evening's sunset was pretty good around 4:30pm.  Crazy how early the sun falls below the horizon this time of year. 

Very mild out too... felt like a late-summer evening, happening in the middle of the afternoon.  A mini-mud season.

Wave like feature curling over the Green Mtn Spine.  

 

[CoastalWx]

Who doesn’t like Bruce Hornsby? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Who doesn’t like Bruce Hornsby? 

 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Are you talking to me?

[Lava Rock]

Warm already. 62F

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you talking to me?

This is how you ask DIT “Are you talking to me!”
 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Euro op and ensembles looking better towards day 10.

[radarman]

DSD

[mreaves]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This evening's sunset was pretty good around 4:30pm.  Crazy how early the sun falls below the horizon this time of year. 

Very mild out too... felt like a late-summer evening, happening in the middle of the afternoon.  A mini-mud season.

Wave like feature curling over the Green Mtn Spine.  

I was thinking it felt more like that first warm day in April when the snow is gone and you can finally open the windows again. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

This is how you ask DIT “Are you talking to me!”
 

 

Can’t you see...I’m easily, bothered by these torches.
One pig trough lashing out at you...