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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Good thing this is the CFS suck time of month.  Plenty of time to cool off for January.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202101.thumb.gif.2ba938ba3f9c3299ba3980111ec4da95.gif

Obviously you can get away with some warmth and still have a snowy month, but it just becomes a harder task the warmer the anomaly is.  Would need to have great timing and not waste the cold when there is some.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good thing this is the CFS suck time of month.  Plenty of time to cool off for January.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202101.thumb.gif.2ba938ba3f9c3299ba3980111ec4da95.gif

Obviously you can get away with some warmth and still have a snowy month, but it just becomes a harder task the warmer the anomaly is.  Would need to have great timing and not waste the cold when there is some.

They should only run that at the very end of the month. CFSv2 is in auto red mode till then.

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4 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

They should only run that at the very end of the month. CFSv2 is in auto red mode till then.

We can always go to Alaska.

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Has anyone here read the book "So Cold a Sky - Upper Michigan weather stories"? I ordered it through ABE Books earlier this year, and it's great, giving all kinds of historical details and maps of past winters. Apparently there was a streak of mild winters in the Midwest and Great Lakes in the mid to late 1820s.

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29 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Does anyone know if the winter of 1931-32 was a La Nina?

Not sure, but that was an extremely warm winter. I was looking at Detroit data for winters 1931-32 and 1881-82, those winters were so mild it was crazy. 

 

What brings up 1931-32?

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Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Has anyone here read the book "So Cold a Sky - Upper Michigan weather stories"? I ordered it through ABE Books earlier this year, and it's great, giving all kinds of historical details and maps of past winters. Apparently there was a streak of mild winters in the Midwest and Great Lakes in the mid to late 1820s.

I have a book about upper Michigan weather but also David Ludlum's History of North American winters. fascinating reads. 

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I have a book about upper Michigan weather but also David Ludlum's History of North American winters. fascinating reads. 

David Ludlum's books are awesome. Hard to find, though. I ordered both volumes of Early American Winters a few years back. Pricey, but worth every penny. I go back to them year after year.

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Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

David Ludlum's books are awesome. Hard to find, though. I ordered both volumes of Early American Winters a few years back. Pricey, but worth every penny. I go back to them year after year.

oops yeah, they are called Early American Winters. There were some very harsh winters back then, but also some very mild, "open" winters. 

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53 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Has anyone here read the book "So Cold a Sky - Upper Michigan weather stories"? I ordered it through ABE Books earlier this year, and it's great, giving all kinds of historical details and maps of past winters. Apparently there was a streak of mild winters in the Midwest and Great Lakes in the mid to late 1820s.

I’ve read the book and was lucky enough to see Carl Bohnak in Marquette in 2016, where he gave a presentation on the book, along with some awesome photos not shared in the book. 
Carl is also the local meteorologist at TV6 in Negaunee. 

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3 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Does anyone know if the winter of 1931-32 was a La Nina?

Extended MEI data in the link below. MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index. Slightly different than ONI but I find it more transparent. 1931-32 was a warm neutral. 1930-31 was a strong El Nino. La Nina didn't happen till 1933-34. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

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10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Extended MEI data in the link below. MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index. Slightly different than ONI but I find it more transparent. 1931-32 was a warm neutral. 1930-31 was a strong El Nino. La Nina didn't happen till 1933-34. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

Very interesting. 1933-34 was one of the coldest winters that decade. 1931-32 was a very warm Winter here. Although the frequency of mild winters has increased in recent times, Detroit's top 3 warmest winters (1881-82, 1931-32, 1889-90) stand alone and we have never come close to them in our lifetime.  I looked Detroit Free Press to see if the news papers were marvelling at the weather. In those ancient days of the 1880s newspapers certainly had a different (but fascinating) style, so they did not discuss the weather in as much detail as we do now. However they did make numerous references to it, noting boating on the river as if it was summer, no ice being made for summer use, green grass and no snow, budding peach limbs mid winter. But by 1931-32, newspapers had evolved and weather was always a fun topic to discuss. The articles were countless about the insane warm weather, noting things like roses, trees, and dandelions budding and blooming in December and January and there was even a front page story about a butterfly being seen flying around Detroit in early January.  The 1st snow to actually cover the grass was not seen until February 4th. The snowiest month was March, the winters worst storm was March 22nd, and as you might guess it was a very cold delayed Spring

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44 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

20201207_205431.jpg

3Zes.gif

The sad thing is, 4-6 degrees above normal in Wisconsin in December isn't exactly warm, so when the inevitable flip to BN occurs right around the spring equinox, it effectively keeps us at roughly the same temperature (highs 35-45, lows 25-35) for about 5 months straight.  :axe:

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3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The sad thing is, 4-6 degrees above normal in Wisconsin in December isn't exactly warm, so when the inevitable flip to BN occurs right around the spring equinox, it effectively keeps us at roughly the same temperature (highs 35-45, lows 25-35) for about 5 months straight.  :axe:

Don't you love our new winter of January 15th to April 15th?

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35 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Don't you love our new winter of January 15th to April 15th?

That’s Winter 2. The shorter season of Winter 1 runs from late October through mid November. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Very interesting. 1933-34 was one of the coldest winters that decade. 1931-32 was a very warm Winter here. Although the frequency of mild winters has increased in recent times, Detroit's top 3 warmest winters (1881-82, 1931-32, 1889-90) stand alone and we have never come close to them in our lifetime.  I looked Detroit Free Press to see if the news papers were marvelling at the weather. In those ancient days of the 1880s newspapers certainly had a different (but fascinating) style, so they did not discuss the weather in as much detail as we do now. However they did make numerous references to it, noting boating on the river as if it was summer, no ice being made for summer use, green grass and no snow, budding peach limbs mid winter. But by 1931-32, newspapers had evolved and weather was always a fun topic to discuss. The articles were countless about the insane warm weather, noting things like roses, trees, and dandelions budding and blooming in December and January and there was even a front page story about a butterfly being seen flying around Detroit in early January.  The 1st snow to actually cover the grass was not seen until February 4th. The snowiest month was March, the winters worst storm was March 22nd, and as you might guess it was a very cold delayed Spring

1881-82 was a warm winter in Toronto but the severity of the warmth was nowhere near Dec 2015 or Feb 2017. And surprisingly Jan 1882 finished slightly below average. But we only saw 30" that winter. There was a super El Nino that occurred from 1876-1878. They say it may have been the strongest El Nino ever recorded. It could've created a lag effect in the atmosphere leading to a couple warm winters in that time frame, i.e. 1877-78, 1879-1880 and 1881-82. 

1931-32 on the other hand was warm here too. From Dec 1 to Feb 29, Toronto only recorded 14 days below freezing. Only one in January. In comparison, we recorded 18 days below freezing in 2011-12,  21 days in 2001-02, 26 days in 2015-16 and and 28 days last winter from Dec 1 - Feb 28/29. I think 2013-14 was 50+. So, 1931-32 was super warm. Despite that the frequency of mild winters has increased over the last 20-25 years as you mentioned. Interestingly enough, Feb 2015 reigns as Toronto's coldest month ever recorded going back to 1840. 

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55 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Don't you love our new winter of January 15th to April 15th?

You can thank the frequent Nino's from 2014-2019 for that. 2016 was near average and only 2017 was below. Both Nina's. This years Nina is behaving like a Nino this month. :yikes:

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19 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

1881-82 was a warm winter in Toronto but the severity of the warmth was nowhere near Dec 2015 or Feb 2017. And surprisingly Jan 1882 finished slightly below average. But we only saw 30" that winter. There was a super El Nino that occurred from 1876-1878. They say it may have been the strongest El Nino ever recorded. It could've created a lag effect in the atmosphere leading to a couple warm winters in that time frame, i.e. 1877-78, 1879-1880 and 1881-82. 

1931-32 on the other hand was warm here too. From Dec 1 to Feb 29, Toronto only recorded 14 days below freezing. Only one in January. In comparison, we recorded 18 days below freezing in 2011-12,  21 days in 2001-02, 26 days in 2015-16 and and 28 days last winter from Dec 1 - Feb 28/29. I think 2013-14 was 50+. So, 1931-32 was super warm. Despite that the frequency of mild winters has increased over the last 20-25 years as you mentioned. Interestingly enough, Feb 2015 reigns as Toronto's coldest month ever recorded going back to 1840. 

Feb 2015 was 2nd coldest for Detroit but coldest since 1875. Winter of 2013-14 was severest on record for cold+snow in addition to being the snowiest.

 

 December 2015 did manage to nudge December of 1881 out of the top spot for warmest, however February of 1882 still ranks as by far the warmest February on record. In fact, the 2nd warmest February is 3゚ colder! January 1882 was much colder than December or February, but was still a good 5゚ above normal.  Seasonal snowfall in 1881-82 was only 13.2", second least snowy Winter on record period from roughly December 31st to January 6th we had a period of below freezing temperatures and a few inches of snow on the ground. That was literally the only Winter of that entire season. The few other snowfalls that occurred did not last more than one day.  1877-78 and 1879-80 were also extraordinarily warm winters, but by far 1881-82 was the inferno here. For the far upper Midwest, 1877-78 was the famous "year without a winter".

 If we had an 8 year stretch like this today, every wx weenie would be on medication. Every single one of these winters was very extreme 1 way or the other locally.

1874-75: record cold

1875-76: very warm

1876-77: very cold

1877-78: very warm

1878-79: bitterly cold

1879-80: warm

1880-81: historically severe (unmatched til 2013-14)

1881-82: historically warm and snowless 

 

 A bit down the road there was another historically warm and snowless Winter in 1889-90.   

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

And the euro comes in with a blizzard. lol.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

sfcgustmax_006h_mph.png?width=876&height

Path seems to be trending south on both the GFS and EURO. Big differences otherwise. 
 

Ride the multi-seasonal trend, south/weak/sheared

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