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hlcater

Major Hurricane Delta

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Wondering when subsidence off these intense convective plumes is finally going to be overwhelming enough inside that tiny mid-level vorticity maximum to kill off the high cirrus spilling over.

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WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is 
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have 
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  This makes 
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind 
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

11am yesterday: 45/1002
Now: 130/954

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

About 2 mb per hour, so that's quite fast for a 24-hr period.  I think Wilma dropped something like 10 mb in two hours at one point.

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2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:
WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is 
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have 
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  This makes 
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind 
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

https://youtu.be/XVPE7I0I7X4?t=13

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More than decent chance we will have a Greek letter Cat 5 storm in the next 24 hours. What a year

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Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows.

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3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows.

only 18-20 hrs before it hits land. not enough time for ERC I don't think.

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My friend/coworker lives in Cozumel. What implications are we looking at for that area? She is staying put. 
No offense but
IS SHE INSANE?!

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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It's a tiny storm so it really will need a direct landfall over one of the resort towns to have a huge impact. Hopefully it just misses them. 

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I assume NHC is going to be coming out with a special advisory to update the intensity forecast? That’s 15mph off from what was initialized at 10pm CDT.

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8 minutes ago, Vicious1990 said:

My friend/coworker lives in Cozumel. What implications are we looking at for that area? She is staying put. 

looks to pass NE of them so they would miss the eye/eyewall.

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Inner structure looks pretty disorganized on satellite for a 130mph 954mb. 

Is the eye so small that it's difficult to see at that resolution or something else?

2020-10-06_114802.jpg

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Inner structure looks pretty disorganized on satellite for a 130mph 954mb. 
Is the eye so small that it's difficult to see at that resolution or something else?
2020-10-06_114802.jpg&key=666e1f4ae51ddd9cb95e917f5c2c36140ef2ac52e2cb96fdc7c06d32b70bd7cd
4 nm wide eye

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a tiny storm so it really will need a direct landfall over one of the resort towns to have a huge impact. Hopefully it just misses them. 

So let me guess...pinpoint forecasting for smaller hurricanes is more difficult because the major impact radius is smaller?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So let me guess...pinpoint forecasting for smaller hurricanes is more difficult because the major impact radius is smaller?

Right, the eye may get a bit larger, but it's a fairly small storm in terms of radius of max winds. But, it's very intense. 

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25 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

No offense but
IS SHE INSANE?!

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Cozumel has been hit by intense hurricanes before and will be hit again. It’ll survive. Their friend will probably be scared shitless tho. Wilma raked them for hours as an upper end cat 4 and it didn’t level everything. This will be a fast moving buzzsaw. 

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21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks to pass NE of them so they would miss the eye/eyewall.

Hopefully that is the case. If it does hit the island, the eastern portion and north eastern portion would be ideal. It's virtually uninhabited. Most of the population is on the west part of the island. We work for the airlines and I asked her if she would like to fly out and come stay with me for a few days, but she doesn't want to leave. I'll definitely be glued to the radar tonight.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Never heard of the CHIPS before.

delicious model...some of it's members include Lays; Ruffles, Doritos

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Got a friend who just got to Cancun yesterday for his honeymoon. Why he went, I have no clue. He is reporting they have evacuated his entire resort inland. 

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