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HoarfrostHubb

October 2020 Discussion

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Sun was massive as it was rising this morning  wish I wasn't  driving and got a pic..

because of the decoupled nature of the atmosphere and cold density at the surface was lensing (atmospheric refraction )

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It could certainly come back ... but it is irresistible to tease people because they have no other outlet to trigger dopamine joy and have become dependent upon a weather models to do so...

ha.  But, climatologically? this is still the period of time for the so dubbed, 'home grown' season -

I mentioned last week that this was probably just being a sensitivity issue in the GFS, based upon those native numerical instabilities at this time of year that permeate that 'petri dish' for TC's in that area - I even said we 'go through this ever year' where the the GFS ( and sometimes the GGEM used to) brings a TC across Cuba.  sarcastically.. comparing it to Sandy - which ...was a scenario where the GFS "probably" at first did the same antic, but then the scored at the black-jack table when one actually did develop.  I remember some 13 days prior to Sandy, early model runs had a similar evac of  TC... But, as fate would have it, the NAO tanked ( crucially west based no less!), such that a cumulus cloud would be forced to into the MA... and then a perturbation timed right and found fertility in that area - boom...

Also, back in 2003 the GGEM did this - reiterating that post... which, yeah - seems arbitrary to reference and era 17 years back but it's relevant regardless -

It's was probably just illusions of numerical instability ... not "yet" realized... Whether the yet materializes?  It may still... but at this time, it is just modeled to do so - in the meantime, there are recent/other compensating physics going on that are muting that climate signal, and that is why the models are not spinning up the phantoms, either.  It does probably lower the probability altogether that anything there will develop if that is the case because that means that the muting emerged rather than a TC from the "uncertainty principle" of chaos as we get closer - lol.. .but yeah

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6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drunk?

Nope.  Finally up today and realizing we have people coming over...lol.   Autumnal day.   I’m looking forward to a mild week-have some local hikes I’m interested in.    November looks colder to start.

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38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nope.  Finally up today and realizing we have people coming over...lol.   Autumnal day.   I’m looking forward to a mild week-have some local hikes I’m interested in.    November looks colder to start.

Let’s get a snower Nov 2nd

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33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Me last year, you this year!

It hasn’t happened in my 47 years. The first couple days of Nov are almost always mild . Oct 11 had snow OTG but it’s never fallen 

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It hasn’t happened in my 47 years. The first couple days of Nov are almost always mild . Oct 11 had snow OTG but it’s never fallen 

We had about an inch on 11/2 about 8-12 years ago per memory.  We need Will to clarify. 

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We had about an inch on 11/2 about 8-12 years ago per memory.  We need Will to clarify. 

I believe that was only an E MA deal. I think it was like WAA off the ocean and then you all flipped to rain . Not in CT unfortunately 

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1 hour ago, alex said:

This time of the year the difference a few miles can make is amazing. This is currently in Conway 

724020AD-0989-45D3-9C48-5C4E377CEB7C.jpeg

It's October 18, I'm surprised there is snow left anywhere South of the Great north woods.  

Very impressive snow for this time of the year in that Route 2 corridor over 1000-1200' feet

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3 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Thinking 11/2/14.  A Sunday morning. 

It was a Sunday but not sure it was that recent?

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8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Go to page 60 and 61. Some crazy joking, yet disturbing foreshadowing going on in that thread.

 

 

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Posted in wrong thread probably but snowcover still hanging around here. It seems pretty unusual for this time of the year to have 48+ hr of snowcover at relatively low elevations. 6E30FFE5-D6B2-439D-801F-64E086F84E1F.jpeg.8026b311f11e3bb4a5ca89ec8871db55.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, alex said:

Posted in wrong thread probably but snowcover still hanging around here. It seems pretty unusual for this time of the year to have 48+ hr of snowcover at relatively low elevations. 6E30FFE5-D6B2-439D-801F-64E086F84E1F.jpeg.8026b311f11e3bb4a5ca89ec8871db55.jpeg

Dang. The longest period of continuous snow cover here last winter was about 72 hours. 

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