Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[RogueWaves]

49 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point.

This is a 2020 Nina. No point in comparing with the 00's. Thx anyways

[Snowstorms]

52 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point.

Euro and CFS both have a robust easterly wind burst over the next 2 weeks. Still a lot of cold subsurface anomalies esp below eastern Nino regions. I would expect the ENSO regions to cool down over the next few weeks solidifying a moderate Nina come NDJ. Even across western regions it has cooled down some over the past few weeks. We currently have an east based La Nina right now. 2017 and 2007 are the two most recent east-based La Nina’s. 2013 too if you want to consider it as it was borderline weak Nina.

I would assume Nina's are fairly dry for your region in the winter. 

[iluvsnow]

And as always the infinitely detailed, pinpoint, way out on a limb, Accuweather guess at winter....

 

[H2Otown_WX]

29 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

And as always the infinitely detailed, pinpoint, way out on a limb, Accuweather guess at winter....

Lmao, Snow at Times? Wtf does that even mean?

[cyclone77]

They should have painted triple phaser on there somewhere dammit.

[dayton1996]

Ohio.  Rain and snow.  Genius...

[StormfanaticInd]

Meteorological winter is just under two months away

[RobertSul]

13 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Lmao, Snow at Times? Wtf does that even mean?

It means that sometime over the next 6 months, an undetermined amount of rain and snow will fall over a large geographical area where rain and snow fall. 
 

Reminds me of the old George Carlin line, “Tonight’s Forecast: Dark.”

[Malacka11]

Tonight was the first night where I went outside, and was genuinely surprised by how winter-like the cold felt. Something about the echo-ey road sounds, the frost on the hood of my car... It was just different tonight.

[michsnowfreak]

Euro doesn't look great but I don't consider +1-1.5C a blowtorch.  As always it's gonna come down to storminess and if la nina lives up to its name there should be fun times.

[slow poke]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Euro doesn't look great but I don't consider +1-1.5C a blowtorch.  As always it's gonna come down to storminess and if la nina lives up to its name there should be fun times.

Hoping for a speedy recovery for you buddy. Looking forward to talking about snow storms this coming winter with you.

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, slow poke said:

Hoping for a speedy recovery for you buddy. Looking forward to talking about snow storms this coming winter with you.

Thank you! I look forward to that as well!

[slow poke]

Hopefully it warms up and stays warmer then normal till mid December then flips to cold. A cold and white late Fall seems to give us a warm and muddy holiday season. In the 20 years that we’ve had our place in northern lower Michigan the 5 or 6 years we didn’t have a white Christmas up there we had a white Thanksgiving. Last year was one of them even though it did cool off enough too snow a few days after Christmas and we ended up with A white New Years with about 10” on the ground.

 

[RogueWaves]

18 hours ago, slow poke said:

Hopefully it warms up and stays warmer then normal till mid December then flips to cold. A cold and white late Fall seems to give us a warm and muddy holiday season. In the 20 years that we’ve had our place in northern lower Michigan the 5 or 6 years we didn’t have a white Christmas up there we had a white Thanksgiving. Last year was one of them even though it did cool off enough too snow a few days after Christmas and we ended up with A white New Years with about 10” on the ground.

 

'95 was a white Turkey Day, and an even whiter Christmas. #funtimes

[slow poke]

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

'95 was a white Turkey Day, and an even whiter Christmas. #funtimes

November/December of 04 and 08 also seemed to buck that trend if I recall, they both had snowy November’s and December’s in northern lower but I think 08 had the big melt down Christmas week. I could definitely be wrong though because I’m just going off my not so good memory but I remember having a nearly 2 foot base of snow melt down to 8” of rock hard crust one Christmas week up there and I thought it was 08. 

[stadiumwave]

On 10/1/2020 at 4:34 PM, RogueWaves said:

This is a 2020 Nina. No point in comparing with the 00's. Thx anyways

 

I'm hoping this is sarcasm?

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm expecting a 2020 style day after tomorrow type winter. 

[A-L-E-K]

it's coming

 

 

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

it's coming

 

 

Late October snows bring mid winter woes

[A-L-E-K]

tossing all the old rules this year

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

tossing all the old rules this year

Ballin' from Halloween to Valentines Day. Then Morch 2.0

[wishforsnow]

On 10/7/2020 at 2:29 AM, RogueWaves said:

'95 was a white Turkey Day, and an even whiter Christmas. #funtimes

You got that right. I came up for a job interview just a few days after thanksgiving. It was quite snowy here in the Keweenaw. When I finally moved up here the end of December that year it was very snowy. The snowbanks were so high I had to stand up out of my seat at the intersections to see if anyone was coming. At that time I drove a 1985 Ford 3/4 ton van. Then a few weeks after I moved up here we had a big snowstorm that ended up dumping 54 inches at the Airport which is north of Hancock. Also, that is the storm that this one nut decided to rob the bank and got his car stuck in the snow just up the street up from the bank and the cops had a standoff and the hostage he took ended up getting shot in the process. It was snowing so bad the plows were pulled off the roads.

[slow poke]

4 hours ago, wishforsnow said:

You got that right. I came up for a job interview just a few days after thanksgiving. It was quite snowy here in the Keweenaw. When I finally moved up here the end of December that year it was very snowy. The snowbanks were so high I had to stand up out of my seat at the intersections to see if anyone was coming. At that time I drove a 1985 Ford 3/4 ton van. Then a few weeks after I moved up here we had a big snowstorm that ended up dumping 54 inches at the Airport which is north of Hancock. Also, that is the storm that this one nut decided to rob the bank and got his car stuck in the snow just up the street up from the bank and the cops had a standoff and the hostage he took ended up getting shot in the process. It was snowing so bad the plows were pulled off the roads.

The winter of 95-96 was awesome for northern Michigan. My aunt and uncle lived on Long Lake just north of Alpena back then and my wife, girlfriend at the time still, and I went up there snowmobiling a few times that winter. The snow was so deep up there that we were riding our snowmobiles in some fields where there were round hay bails that hadn’t been picked up yet from the last cutting and the snow on the flat was covering almost the entire bails. Just crazy deep snow that winter, would love to have another like that. For you non farmers a round bail is probably 5 feet high or more.

[Frog Town]

In all honesty, I really like where our sub sits right now.  Last year it was proged to be a bad winter leading to disappointment after disappointment.  Now, if anything occurs, it will be delightful.  Just my opinion.  

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

In all honesty, I really like where our sub sits right now.  Last year it was proged to be a bad winter leading to disappointment after disappointment.  Now, if anything occurs, it will be delightful.  Just my opinion.  

La Nina's almost always lead to great Toledo winters, and prolific early spring flooding. 

I'd say the sweet spot for Toledo is a 50" winter. Perfect amount of consistent snow cover to allow for ample winter sports, yet at the same time isn't overwhelming. The 86" that fell in 2013-14 was too much. I loved snow but wow was it nearly impossible to get around rural communities that winter.

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

La Nina's almost always lead to great Toledo winters, and prolific early spring flooding. 

I'd say the sweet spot for Toledo is a 50" winter. Perfect amount of consistent snow cover to allow for ample winter sports, yet at the same time isn't overwhelming. The 86" that fell in 2013-14 was too much. I loved snow but wow was it nearly impossible to get around rural communities that winter.

What's your address!  I'm gonna send you a present for making my day, lol.  

[Hoosier]

Don Sutherland is going with a warm winter in the Lakes (>3F above average).  But considering the temps, his snow projections for Chicago and Detroit aren't terrible.