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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Discussion

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On 9/10/2020 at 5:41 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Gotta roll the dice with big warm cutters if we ever wanna get lucky

Margin of victory with cutters always seems a bit iffy due to dry slot issues, positive-tilt warm-sector convection robbing the cold-sector precip, overaggressive WAA, etc.  Hybrid clipper systems is where it's at.

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8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Margin of victory with cutters always seems a bit iffy due to dry slot issues, positive-tilt warm-sector convection robbing the cold-sector precip, overaggressive WAA, etc.  Hybrid clipper systems is where it's at.

Those hybrid clippers seem to always overperform as well, at least locally. 
 

I will happily skip the models constantly shitting the bed and each storm becoming a strung out piece of garbage.

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hybrid clippers are awesome. Seriously though  I would take 2007-08 in a heart beat even though I am more of a snow cover lover. As someone who loves snow cover it was absolutely torture to see snow pack constantly getting demolished by brief thaws and even torches (remember early January 2008 torch?). But that Winter the snow just immediately always returned.  I don't care how many thaws mother nature slits the the wrist with, I cannot diss a near 80" season. It would be nice though if she could time her fits a little better, in 2007-08 a 10" snowpack was demolished 2 days before Christmas and then we ended up with the deepest white Easter on record.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure if it's just me, but can't see image.

I can but I do not know what a post about TS Isaias from August 4th has to do with winter.

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55 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hard pass

Yeah center that west about 300-500 miles and then we are talking 

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I think that most of you would agree with me that it would just be nice to feel something again during winter. Last winter wasn't even filled with disappointment, you know? I mean, it was, but a system completely disappearing from existence three days out is just incomparable to a nail-biting, near-miss a county to the north or south. Not that I love near-misses, but at least those are a standard part of any winter. 

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Last Winter was better in Michigan then areas just to the south. I cannot say that a Winter with average snowfall featured no fun moments, but it was definitely a weird Winter with a very disappointing December thru mid January. I'm never one to care about storm tracking as much as the actual storms themselves, and actually several of our bigger snowfalls last Winter exceeded expectations. I personally can do without the model fantasies and near misses.

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Question for you guys;  as an East Coast native, I'm wondering how much a -NAO matters for getting snow here? I'm guessing it doesn't matter as much and could even be a detriment if it's east-based?

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12 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Question for you guys;  as an East Coast native, I'm wondering how much a -NAO matters for getting snow here? I'm guessing it doesn't matter as much and could even be a detriment if it's east-based?

Strong persistent blocking can be a problem, but -NAO patterns, the ups and downs help spur big storms creation. February 1965 is a good example of a strong storm forming when the -NAO formed. January 1978 speaks for itself. Early January 1918. The November 1950 blizzard in the OV was -NAO.

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East based -NAO are good for the Great Lakes. West based can be good if it is weak, if it is stronger than -1 that favors the east coast more.

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On 9/14/2020 at 11:11 AM, Malacka11 said:

I think that most of you would agree with me that it would just be nice to feel something again during winter. Last winter wasn't even filled with disappointment, you know? I mean, it was, but a system completely disappearing from existence three days out is just incomparable to a nail-biting, near-miss a county to the north or south. Not that I love near-misses, but at least those are a standard part of any winter. 

did you just curse us?

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2 hours ago, Baum said:

did you just curse us?

I would like to think not. I've spent an extensive amount of time in my secret ritual cave and have sacrificed a myriad of wild animals and neighbors alike to ensure a satisfying winter for all midwesterners. If that doesn't do the trick, then winter is cancelled

 

 

 

...In all seriousness, I just thought of something: Surely everyone in here has heard of people being like "F*ck 2020" and talking about how every month of the year, something new goes catastrophically wrong. Thus, it would only make sense for this winter to be an absolute snow/cold fest because that way, people can keep personifying the calendar year and complaining. With kids not even being in school, it would only make sense for all of the snow in the universe to fall this year so that no snow days are awarded.

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On 9/11/2020 at 8:18 PM, madwx said:

2007-08 looks like a good analog.  Especially if La Nina gets a little stronger than progged.  Would take that winter and following severe weather season

This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April.

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21 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Question for you guys;  as an East Coast native, I'm wondering how much a -NAO matters for getting snow here? I'm guessing it doesn't matter as much and could even be a detriment if it's east-based?

I am not that great with all the indices during patterns, but I do know that a +NAO can also be good for some snowsorms here. So when we see that the NAO is going positive it's not as much dooms day in the Great Lakes as it would be on the East Coast

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1 hour ago, andyhb said:

This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April.

Yes, like I said though, pass on repeating the accompanying floods in '08. Far outstripped all the tornadoes except Parkersburg for impacts.

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am not that great with all the indices during patterns, but I do know that a +NAO can also be good for some snowsorms here. So when we see that the NAO is going positive it's not as much dooms day in the Great Lakes as it would be on the East Coast

Ok thanks, that makes sense. Well, hopefully we can have a more active pattern this year than last lol.

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16 hours ago, Stebo said:

East based -NAO are good for the Great Lakes. West based can be good if it is weak, if it is stronger than -1 that favors the east coast more.

 

23 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Strong persistent blocking can be a problem, but -NAO patterns, the ups and downs help spur big storms creation. February 1965 is a good example of a strong storm forming when the -NAO formed. January 1978 speaks for itself. Early January 1918. The November 1950 blizzard in the OV was -NAO.

Thanks guys. I guess it's the opposite of what I thought. I always thought an east-based -NAO would put the trough axis too far east for here. Angrysummons - I don't know 2 out of 3 of those storms you mentioned. I will have to look at the January 1978 one on NARR.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

how many winters have you been in Milwaukee?

This will be my 2nd. Last year I lived in Waukesha. Now I'm on the Greenfield/Milwaukee border. Much more convenient to commute to the airport.

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On 9/14/2020 at 12:11 PM, Malacka11 said:

I think that most of you would agree with me that it would just be nice to feel something again during winter. Last winter wasn't even filled with disappointment, you know? I mean, it was, but a system completely disappearing from existence three days out is just incomparable to a nail-biting, near-miss a county to the north or south. Not that I love near-misses, but at least those are a standard part of any winter. 

More like a rare "day of" storm warning bust for many NWS offices. Worst seen in decades!

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On 9/22/2020 at 6:07 PM, RogueWaves said:

More like a rare "day of" storm warning bust for many NWS offices. Worst seen in decades!

Actually that's not too difficult for DTX or GRR because of how much they love the old "Winter weather advisory" .  We had at least one, maybe 2 of those busts last Winter alone. But in a great Winter we would see many more.  I notice that GRR as the worst. 1 to 3" of Lake effect snow? They issue a Winter weather advisory. 5 to 8" of synoptic snow? Winter weather advisory lol

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11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually that's not too difficult for DTX or GRR because of how much they love the old "Winter weather advisory" .  We had at least one, maybe 2 of those busts last Winter alone. But in a great Winter we would see many more.  I notice that GRR as the worst. 1 to 3" of Lake effect snow? They issue a Winter weather advisory. 5 to 8" of synoptic snow? Winter weather advisory lol

I do love the November storm that had widespread 8-12" totals and only a Winter Weather Advisory lol

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