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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Discussion

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23 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

I do love the November storm that had widespread 8-12" totals and only a Winter Weather Advisory lol

That was crazy lol. It was apparent early on that totals were going to bust big, but rather than change the advisory to a warning they just kept upping the accumulation forecast.

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On 9/23/2020 at 9:07 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Actually that's not too difficult for DTX or GRR because of how much they love the old "Winter weather advisory" .  We had at least one, maybe 2 of those busts last Winter alone. But in a great Winter we would see many more.  I notice that GRR as the worst. 1 to 3" of Lake effect snow? They issue a Winter weather advisory. 5 to 8" of synoptic snow? Winter weather advisory lol

I was referring specifically to the Jan 12th(??) System that had warning headlines flying for ice and/or snow, neither of which materialized to storm levels. And it was across multiple states not just here in MI. Worst fail in decades. Some offices even issued an explanation or attempted one. Don't think any of the 3 Lower Mich offices did tho

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5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I was referring specifically to the Jan 12th(??) System that had warning headlines flying for ice and/or snow, neither of which materialized to storm levels. And it was across multiple states not just here in MI. Worst fail in decades. Some offices even issued an explanation or attempted one. Don't think any of the 3 Lower Mich offices did tho

 My memory of that specific storm is kind of vague since I personally was never on the wintry side of it, but wasn't that the storm where they were predicting an epic ice storm for some areas that just did not materialize? Dont remember the snow aspect. We ended up with very heavy rain which ended as freezing rain then a dusting of snow.

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11 hours ago, Stebo said:

GFS says okay go time

GFSMW_prec_ptype_237.png.5dc9338727bcf10bc8dfe747c46754c4.png

GFSNIL_prec_snow_279.png.a9f500c832bf511b0f59d60dba09100f.png

Last year you could see the pattern setting up to favor an usually far south early snow, which actually ended up happening at the end of October.  This would take it to the next level though.

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Last year you could see the pattern setting up to favor an usually far south early snow, which actually ended up happening at the end of October.  This would take it to the next level though.

Just a few days ago was the anniversary of the record earliest measureable snowfall for part of the sub, 1947.

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10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Just a few days ago was the anniversary of the record earliest measureable snowfall for part of the sub, 1947.

So you're saying that the GFS actually has a shot then :pepsi:

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On 9/26/2020 at 1:08 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

:rolleyes:Got a feeling this winter will be better than the past couple of years which is not saying much

I sure hope so.  I am snow starved after several back to back winters that have failed to produce much of anything.  

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14 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

I sure hope so.  I am snow starved after several back to back winters that have failed to produce much of anything.  

Don't worry. This winter will be an absolute banger.

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Officially in La Nina conditions per WMO.

Thinking a moderate event is becoming increasingly likely with strong trade winds continuing near and east of the dateline.

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Too much excitement.

It’ll come down to more than just the Nina, per usual.


.

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12 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

this is our year

Moderate Ninas can be very fun. The last few have been plentiful for the region outside of the Ohio Valley, even then 08 worked out for them in a few cases.

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31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Moderate Ninas can be very fun. The last few have been plentiful for the region outside of the Ohio Valley, even then 08 worked out for them in a few cases.

Iiuc we may even be looking at a strong Nina. Tradition says that'd be worse for us. But lately everything has bucked tradition. Counting on this to do the same. I do feel that if winter comes in fast and furious it will leave the same way. By that I mean early.

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Iiuc we may even be looking at a strong Nina. Tradition says that'd be worse for us. But lately everything has bucked tradition. Counting on this to do the same. I do feel that if winter comes in fast and furious it will leave the same way. By that I mean early.

Thats my favourite type of winter. Early season snow and cold and then spring starts fast mid march 

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19 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Thats my favourite type of winter. Early season snow and cold and then spring starts fast mid march 

An early departure is alright with me as long as we define 'early' as March, not December.

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Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. 

Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks. 

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13 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. 

Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks. 

64-65 was pretty decent. Mby got 13+ from that storm. Ofc I was 8 (mos) and remember only an after photo. :yikes:@ Detroit. The land of 30+ year Big Dog droughts.

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

64-65 was pretty decent. Mby got 13+ from that storm. Ofc I was 8 (mos) and remember only an after photo. :yikes:@ Detroit. The land of 30+ year Big Dog droughts.

Decent winter. good on snowcover but there were a few thaws. This was a good storm, broke the big snowstorm drought of the '30s-50s. 

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Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point.

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