nj2va Posted September 24, 2020 40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro shows less then 2 tenths here through Tuesday. Hopefully the beast trough mid week gives some much needed rain up here . H5 looks darn impressive mid long range Euro. What's your September total? I'm at 0.9" for the month at Deep Creek. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, nj2va said: What's your September total? I'm at 0.9" for the month at Deep Creek. I think 0.6" Drought 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted September 25, 2020 12 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Euro shows less then 2 tenths here through Tuesday. Hopefully the beast trough mid week gives some much needed rain up here . H5 looks darn impressive mid long range Euro. Latest Euro took most of that away now Relying on the Wednesday Through Friday time frame Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Euro took most of that away now Relying on the Wednesday Through Friday time frame You just may have to wait for your November paste bomb to dent that dry spell. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted September 25, 2020 17 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip. WPC goes with higher QPF in latest update. ..Weather/Hazard Highlights... Ample energy seems set to dig into the potent upper trough/low position will push cold fronts across the central and eastern U.S. through the period and provide focus for rain. Amplification trends have slowed the eastward translation of a main lead front and reinforcement as contingent on uncertain stream separation. A significant WPC frontal continuity adjustment was applied to address timing. Modest to locally heavy rainfall totals may focus from the Appalachians eastward for the first part of the workweek, albeit with trough axis differences affecting wave development and moisture inflow potential. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted September 25, 2020 Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere, by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben, recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted September 25, 2020 Went to the beach recently and observed huge amounts of sand have been lost due to recent huge waves battering the surf zone from offshore hurricanes and the effect of the moon phase. Also, opposite of many past Septembers, the surf zone temps have really dropped off quickly. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, frd said: Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere, by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben, recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted September 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though. Pac jet will not be denied. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure. LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference. What I found interesting is that this failure occurred right after an upgrade or other maintenance. Assuming it's just a coincidence. Lake Charles should DEFINITELY get preference. Is there some sort of contingency that allows them to work on multiple 88Ds at once? Rare case but what if a major storm took out 2 or 3 radars in short order. I guess it's a personnel numbers type thing - can't imagine there's a ton of folks able to do work on radars. ETA: This failure probably guarantees the event of the season on Tuesday Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted September 25, 2020 NAM and Hrrr NAM the area just west of 95 tonight Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
George BM Posted September 25, 2020 This is going to be the second system in a row where the rain we get is from remnant tropical. The third event in a row with a tropical connection (There was tropical moisture from 94L on Sept 10th). There have been four storm systems (including this one just starting to affect us now) to affect us this month. Of those four systems only the first system (the one that gave some of us severe weather on September 3rd) did not have tropical connections. ... Man... I REALLY need to work on my grammar... Hopefully you all understood what I said. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted September 26, 2020 I'm calling 0.01" for mby through tomorrow. Eps shows days 6 through 15 low mid 60s here . Fall is here to stay . 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted September 26, 2020 Raining when I left Arlington but lots of stars here. Gorgeous sunset tonight on 68...wish I pulled over for a photo. Currently 55. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 0.60" here so far. Getting heavy downpours now. Wasn't really expecting this. even though most of the mesos yesterday did show a half inch+ here, the latest NAM runs backed off and had the better rains to my west. Official forecast was a tenth to a quarter. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2020 0.58” total. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 The remnants of Beta behaving more like an Alpha here. 0.72" with another heavy shower rolling through. Hopefully its about done. It would be nice to salvage some of the day. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2020 M0.25" Reisterstown. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowtoRain Posted September 26, 2020 1.09", was not expecting that much Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted September 26, 2020 0.00" Mist falling atm 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, SnowtoRain said: 1.09", was not expecting that much Neither was Mount Holly lol. Up to 0.83" here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 0.00" Mist falling atm Yours is coming As wet as it looks this week, and with the last section of grass germinated and coming up, I think my sprinkler will be retired for the year. If your yard somehow gets missed again, I will overnight it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted September 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yours is coming As wet as it looks this week, and with the last section of grass germinated and coming up, I think my sprinkler will be retired for the year. If your yard somehow gets missed again, I will overnight it. If it's only one... then it better be feeeeet long lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Yet another super wet month here, going back to at least July. 8.68" to this point. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: Yet another super wet month here, going back to at least July. 8.68" to this point. Is that total since July or just this month? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poolz1 Posted September 26, 2020 Recording a T for last night. 16 days since the last measurable rain here above a T. Looks like that will probably end next week but a heck of a dry stretch. Fall color has started here on the margins....greens are dulled and the deer are freaking everywhere. The fall smallmouth bite is on as well. Here are a few pics from the other eve while fishing the rapids...up river from Harpers Ferry. 7 smallmouth and 1 walleye! Love this time of year.... 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Is that total since July or just this month? That's September lol. Each of the last 3, if not 4 months have been significantly above normal. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted September 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yet another super wet month here, going back to at least July. 8.68" to this point. .60" September Euro fwiw brings a 998 low right over central Md Wed so that should deliver some rain 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
