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September 2020 wx discussion

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Two photos of this morning’s smoky sunrise.

Larchmont09152020-1.jpg

 

That's a crazy good shot! What an eerie world we're living in now.

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Two photos of this morning’s smoky sunrise.

Larchmont09152020-1.jpg

Larchmont09152020-2.jpg

maybe billions of years from now Jupiter will be headed right towards the earth and it will look like that...

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12z NAEFS is hardening the northern fringe of qpf in our NYC forum, despite most models less than 0.1".  12z GEFS/EPS both have 0.1" to central NJ - s coast of LI..the EPS about 12 hours slower than the fast 12z/15 GEFS.  

The NAEFS 52 member ensemble must have a high bias in some of it's members (plenty of variability is color coded) but has the 0.4" qpf on successive cycles thru NNJ to the N of LI. I know many on this forum do not think much of the GGEM.  I do think it's good and to enjoy a cyclonic precip event (non-convective), the GGEM must be on board- I've  very seldom seen the GGEM dry and an event occur (lets say within 72 hours).  So, for the sake of a conservative approach...we'll expect the NAEFS to be wrong.  Just the same I'm posting the 00z/12z cycles 24 hr qpf ending 8PM Friday and we'll see if it had any idea of the northern fringe qpf.  

Screen Shot 2020-09-15 at 2.58.42 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-15 at 2.57.46 PM.png

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Reviewing week two outlook as suggested by the NAEFS week 2 guidance posted 8/30.

Have added the QPF for week two... (only 1 event the 9th-11th with the second Sun-Mon 13th-14th being a null event)), and the week two national  average temp which showed the trough axis was actually further west than implied ~Aug 30. Still the guidance was good at opening up east coast possibilities of more normal rainfall and central USA cooler than normal.

 

Screen_Shot_2020-09-15_at_3_14.00_PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-15 at 2.51.59 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-15 at 2.53.01 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-15 at 3.18.43 PM.png

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20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Reviewing week two outlook as suggested by the NAEFS week 2 guidance posted 8/30.

Have added the QPF for week two... (only 1 event the 9th-11th with the second Sun-Mon 13th-14th being a null event)), and the week two national  average temp which showed the trough axis was actually further west than implied ~Aug 30. Still the guidance was good at opening up east coast possibilities of more normal rainfall and central USA cooler than normal.

 

how are the southward moving echoes i posted an example of anomalous propagation? 

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41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What storm is that?  Something that forms later?

Teddy

Bermuda  should watch this closely. 

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everyone interested should be on sunset watch tonight, with the smoke in the air it could be a good one.  unfortunately there doesn't look to be much in the way of cloud cover, but i'm guessing there will be a big, bright reddish sun.  maybe you'll have a chance to peak a sunspot if they're active.

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Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. 

Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats.

Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.

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14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. 

Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats.

Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.

more likely to have stronger troughs in l;ate october then in mid september sandy was once in a 100 year storm..

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28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. 

Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats.

Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.

We have to see if the storm keeps trending west. It can get stuck under the ridge  like HM and Earthlight were talking about earlier today 

 

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

maybe billions of years from now Jupiter will be headed right towards the earth and it will look like that...

I was going to say Venus but your closer to the accurate look. As always ...

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23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Smoky sun this evening.

Larchmontsunset09152020-1.jpg

super smoky.  it was gone before it dipped below the horizon.  i'm thinking the better shots will be the sunrises, i guess there's usually less particulates in the air in the morning than the afternoon due to diurnal heating and churned up wind currents.  idk though.

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The NYC 4th longest 70° degree streak finallly ended.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 70 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 118 2015-09-30
2 117 1995-09-22
- 117 1994-09-21
3 115 1925-09-21
4 113 2020-09-14
- 113 2008-09-18
5 111 2016-09-27
- 111 1966-09-19
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Today was the coolest day so far this month. After another cool start, tomorrow will be somewhat milder.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, more monthly record high temperatures tumble in parts of Europe, including Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. Météo-France described the record-breaking September heat that occurred north of the Seine River as follows, "Monthly records have been beaten, even pulverized." Monthly record high temperatures included:

Antwerp, Belgium: 94°
Beauvechain, Belgium: 94°
Brussels: 94°
Charleroi, Belgium: 96° (national September record)
Florennes, Belgium: 91°
Geilenkirchen, Germany: 95°
Gilze-Rijen, Netherlands: 95° (national September record)
Kleine Brugel, Belgium: 94°
Lille, France: 95°
Luxembourg: 93°
Maastricht, Netherlands: 94°
Melun, France: 94°
Paris-Le Bourget: 95°
Pontoise, France: 95°
St. Quentin, France: 94°

An even cooler air mass could arrive late in the week. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters.

The most recent subseasonal guidance is in strong consensus that a generally cool regime could last through the first week of October. The latest EPS weeklies forecast an end to the cool anomalies near the end of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +7.67.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.576.

On September 14, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.030 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.743.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5°.

Finally,on September 14, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 3.582 million square kilometers. To date, the summer minimum figure is 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record.

 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NYC 4th longest 70° degree streak finallly ended.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 70 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 118 2015-09-30
2 117 1995-09-22
- 117 1994-09-21
3 115 1925-09-21
4 113 2020-09-14
- 113 2008-09-18
5 111 2016-09-27
- 111 1966-09-19

with four years ahead of 2020 its the fifth longest...I wonder if the smokey skies helped keep highs down...

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1 hour ago, JoshSnow said:

I’m not religious but doesn’t the Bible predict the world ending after the sun gets completely blocked off. It feels a title eerie lately with what’s going on around the world honestly, maybe I’m just bugging. I saw the sunset earlier it looked so weird!

 

edit: 

I found the verse

 

The sun will be turned to darkness and the moon to blood before the coming of the great and glorious day of the Lord.

Thanks for sharing this powerful quote. Once the smoke has passed, we’ll see more typical sunsets. The kind of sunset we witnessed today is commonplace in countries such as Indonesia and China. There’s just an incredible amount of pollution that produces such sunsets. At least that was the case when I was in both countries.

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9/15

JFK: 70
ACY: 68
PHL: 68
LGA: 67
EWR: 67
ISP: 67
TEB: 67
New Brnswck: 66
TTN: 66
NYC: 66
BLM: 65

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