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September 2020 Discussion

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GEFS will run to 35 days out at 00z. That will take forever though. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I do think this new GEFS won't finish as early as it used to despite starting earlier. The stats do show an improvement and it would be nice for the GEFS to be more competitive with the EPS.  I have not been impressed at all with both the euro op and ensemble this summer. 

It starts an hour earlier about 15 minutes after the Op starts, but will end an hour later. So 3 hours for a full 15 day cycle.

Days 16-35 are only with the 0z run, but will not be created until 21 hours later. Finishing around 2z of the next day


.

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Driest summer on record in N CT / BDL . I recall a few tstorms in E MA and NH/VT that dropped that amount in 2 hours. This is 1960’s redux 

 

That's pretty impressive.

All the other years are grouped pretty closely but this summer has #2 beat by like 2/3rds of an inch.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Driest summer on record in N CT / BDL . I recall a few tstorms in E MA and NH/VT that dropped that amount in 2 hours. This is 1960’s redux 

FY6Yu0j.png

Same here.

 

94E7A858-DFC8-45A5-A847-7DFE5744B708.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Driest summer on record in N CT / BDL . I recall a few tstorms in E MA and NH/VT that dropped that amount in 2 hours. This is 1960’s redux 

FY6Yu0j.png

One storm this summer gave us about that lol

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Thing is I’ve noticed the operational GFS has a propensity to lower heights too much on the polar side of the westerlies jet. Cyclonic nodes (hypsometric ) get as deep as 6 to even 10dm too deep in those cores by D7 upon every run. 

It’s causing an interesting error complexion. In one sense ... the velocities are speeding up; that much is empirical. But the GFS bias is causing it to also speed the flow up because of its own total gradient integral. 

So it’s adding too much velocity to a speeding up flow. I know this is true purely by nerdy observation focus .. But it nicely accounts for a fairly coherent progressive/stretching the GFS does with its wave handling in the mid and extended range. 

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13 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

There's a place in upstate New York that has a similar falls, they have a sign, don't swim, people have drowned due to the undercurrent, yet every year some dumb ass jumps in and drowns, I forget the number of people but it was quite a lot, mostly college kids, it was a college town.

Ithaca,NY.  Taghannock Falls

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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Driest summer on record in N CT / BDL . I recall a few tstorms in E MA and NH/VT that dropped that amount in 2 hours. This is 1960’s redux 

FY6Yu0j.png

So summer is June 21 to Sept 22 then hottest summer ever cancel BDL?

Screenshot_20200924-075350_Chrome.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats DIT on joining the extreme team

20200924_085156.jpg

Fire fighters in Thompson (near Ma Line) have been working the same 5 acre brush fire since July, it’s deep in the ground and breaking containment 

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There's a couple of really nice stretches of color right now on 93 north, north of CON. Especially around the Northfield rest area and a bit before exit 19. It was pretty impressive on my ride home last night. I feel like it usually looks like this around the first week of October.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Death surrounds us now. Trees going

xEQlQMl.jpg

Some of us play chess with it daily and try to stay one pawn ahead. The stone fence in the photo, do you know how far back it goes? As always .....

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Just now, rclab said:

Some of us play chess with it daily and try to stay one pawn ahead. The stone fence in the photo, do you know how far back it goes? As always .....

That borders the periphery of the backyard/ woods. It’s kind of a diagonal line that stretches from the woods up to behind the house. There’s a public hiking trail way back in the woods that goes for many miles thru the woods in town 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op is trash. EPS looks decent for rains next week. 

Bad sign heading into winter.

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The trees are changing every 12 hours it’s noticeable.  Definitely going to peak early, by October 1st probably at this rate.  Columbus Day weekend will be stick season.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The trees are changing every 12 hours it’s noticeable.  Definitely going to peak early, by October 1st probably at this rate.  Columbus Day weekend will be stick season.

Yeah I was thinking that. SNE peeps coming up to the Kanc on Columbus Day weekend only seeing sticks. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The trees are changing every 12 hours it’s noticeable.  Definitely going to peak early, by October 1st probably at this rate.  Columbus Day weekend will be stick season.

I know that many think of Columbus Day as usually the peak but I don't think that's always been true.  We picked our wedding date 20 years ago, September 29th, because that always seemed closer to the regular peak, if there is such a thing.  I'm not sure if there is any data that could really back this up, just my memories through the years.   

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29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There's a couple of really nice stretches of color right now on 93 north, north of CON. Especially around the Northfield rest area and a bit before exit 19. It was pretty impressive on my ride home last night. I feel like it usually looks like this around the first week of October.

Color is coming on strong and very early in the Newfound Area.  My birches and aspens especially.  I usually don't peak till Oct 18th or so.  Trees must be conserving moisture as they start to go dormant.  That's my hypothesis

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Ithaca,NY.  Taghannock Falls

That's it Jerry, there was another good size fall up there, we hiked about a mile up a trail to get there, when we were there a deer fell over the falls, it was alive but appeared to have broken its legs, animal control had to put him down. 

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