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Possible FF, Iso SVR NJ-LI Noon WED 8/12-Noon FRI 8/14


wdrag
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Since PHI issued a FF watch for much of its area yesterday, and then OKX followed suit this morning for parts of NY metro; have started this topic.

Yes,  potential exists for Flash Flooding and a few small areas of 4+ inch rains by Noon Friday, but model guidance is not overwhelmingly favorable for our NYC forum area. Northeast NJ,  because of its infrastructure, and previous soil moisture condition is most vulnerable. 

But, best convergence for heavy convection appears to favor I78 southward for the entire period (south of more vulnerable ne NJ), with heavy convection possible further north to FWN-HPN-BDR up there only this afternoon.  (for now, it seems se NYS and much of interior CT will miss the big stuff these next several days - keep watering the flowers from time to time).

More than adequate CAPE and PWAT exist for heavy rainfall,  KI are not pooled excessively in our area so far, but enough exists with a frontal boundary in a fairly light wind flow aloft.  

SVR: Since winds aloft are light,  SVR if any, should be very limited, and probably only the I78 region southward-subject to modeling change. 

In summary: There should be organization for 1-3, short duration episodes of very heavy rain the next several days, especially in NJ. It seems most of this will be in the southern part of our NY forum area and even though the FF guidance is not as vulnerable in Monmouth, Ocean, Mercer counties--- that may be where the predominant threat for excessive rain is greatest-per WPC's morning excessive rain outlook for today-tonight. 610A/12

 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

So, another complex that's likely to stay south of me. Dry begets dry...

Doesn't look too good to me for se NYS, even Sussex County in extreme nw NJ and most of interior CT.  Maybe storms will end up further north?  For now,  I'd plan on watering vulnerable flowers late today, Thursday, Friday, Saturday before we get our next area wide chance of 1/4 to 2" rain late Sunday-Monday.  (parts of our NYC forum had rain early this morning but that's about done til sometime between Noon-3P today).

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So far as of 115PM I've found at least two 1+" storm total reports near I195, rainfall RATES of 3-5"/hr (digital and WXUNDERGROUND). I discounted one 4+ report...needs another detailed surroundings check. 

Offline til 245P.  NO SVR verification posted as far as I know as of 110P.

121P/12

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46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

ive missed out on the storms by a few miles all day

I'm getting nailed here in Great Neck at work, but my house hasn't seen anything in Syosset.  Of course my weather envoy seems to have locked up since 1:30 pm so now no data is being received either.

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7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I'm getting nailed here in Great Neck at work, but my house hasn't seen anything in Syosset.  Of course my weather envoy seems to have locked up since 1:30 pm so now no data is being received either.

Looks like a station just to your south picked up 2.34.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYMANHA21/table/2020-08-12/2020-08-12/daily

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