• Member Statistics

    16,050
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NWAflizzard
    Newest Member
    NWAflizzard
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
wdrag

Possible FF, Iso SVR NJ-LI Noon WED 8/12-Noon FRI 8/14

Recommended Posts

Since PHI issued a FF watch for much of its area yesterday, and then OKX followed suit this morning for parts of NY metro; have started this topic.

Yes,  potential exists for Flash Flooding and a few small areas of 4+ inch rains by Noon Friday, but model guidance is not overwhelmingly favorable for our NYC forum area. Northeast NJ,  because of its infrastructure, and previous soil moisture condition is most vulnerable. 

But, best convergence for heavy convection appears to favor I78 southward for the entire period (south of more vulnerable ne NJ), with heavy convection possible further north to FWN-HPN-BDR up there only this afternoon.  (for now, it seems se NYS and much of interior CT will miss the big stuff these next several days - keep watering the flowers from time to time).

More than adequate CAPE and PWAT exist for heavy rainfall,  KI are not pooled excessively in our area so far, but enough exists with a frontal boundary in a fairly light wind flow aloft.  

SVR: Since winds aloft are light,  SVR if any, should be very limited, and probably only the I78 region southward-subject to modeling change. 

In summary: There should be organization for 1-3, short duration episodes of very heavy rain the next several days, especially in NJ. It seems most of this will be in the southern part of our NY forum area and even though the FF guidance is not as vulnerable in Monmouth, Ocean, Mercer counties--- that may be where the predominant threat for excessive rain is greatest-per WPC's morning excessive rain outlook for today-tonight. 610A/12

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

So, another complex that's likely to stay south of me. Dry begets dry...

Doesn't look too good to me for se NYS, even Sussex County in extreme nw NJ and most of interior CT.  Maybe storms will end up further north?  For now,  I'd plan on watering vulnerable flowers late today, Thursday, Friday, Saturday before we get our next area wide chance of 1/4 to 2" rain late Sunday-Monday.  (parts of our NYC forum had rain early this morning but that's about done til sometime between Noon-3P today).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So far as of 115PM I've found at least two 1+" storm total reports near I195, rainfall RATES of 3-5"/hr (digital and WXUNDERGROUND). I discounted one 4+ report...needs another detailed surroundings check. 

Offline til 245P.  NO SVR verification posted as far as I know as of 110P.

121P/12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if this will be one of those days with outflow boundary dominoes popping storms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have had a thunderstorm sitting over my area the past hour that has dropped 3/4 of an inch of rain. Meanwhile just a short distance to my south it looks like sunshine. Reminds me of my days in Florida.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So far nothing N&W of I95. Wonder if that will remain the case

I think the action in central Jersey is about to kickoff, it has gotten very breezy and I am surrounding by dark heavy clouds in New Brunswick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

I think the action in central Jersey is about to kickoff, it has gotten very breezy and I am surrounding by dark heavy clouds in New Brunswick.

Yeah I edited my post, looks like something fired around woodbridge/carteret

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Radar estimates of 2-3 inches of rain across Central Nassau.

 

2EDE5465-2C00-42A3-A8EB-933D363C5600.thumb.png.1d3f9c60fcd8f72691680ecfbdc7abc2.png

 

 

Yea I am in the yellow zone between East Meadow and Levittown.I had 3/4 of an inch but just to my north it was worse and just to my south not much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So far nothing N&W of I95. Wonder if that will remain the case

looks like something just popped up over the turnpike in Middlesex

Raining here in Carteret. ETA: with some added thunder. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

ive missed out on the storms by a few miles all day

I'm getting nailed here in Great Neck at work, but my house hasn't seen anything in Syosset.  Of course my weather envoy seems to have locked up since 1:30 pm so now no data is being received either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I'm getting nailed here in Great Neck at work, but my house hasn't seen anything in Syosset.  Of course my weather envoy seems to have locked up since 1:30 pm so now no data is being received either.

Looks like a station just to your south picked up 2.34.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYMANHA21/table/2020-08-12/2020-08-12/daily

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Flash flood warning, some thunder but not a drop here. Im told its pouring a quarter mile south of me. Queens north of LIE, to Fordham Rd/Pelham Pkwy, Bx getting it good

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.