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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:
Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA 
Doppler radars indicate that the maximum sustained winds associated 
with Hurricane Isaias have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with 
higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 988 mb 
(29.18 inches).

NOAA buoy 41004 recent reported sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) 
and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the southwest eyewall of Isaias.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

 

 

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Thinking rainfall is underdone. All that rain in VA and the interior SE is non existent on the mesoscale models except for the RGEM.

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Starting to get increasingly concerned this won't just be your run of the mill tropical storm. 

The combo of that jet and this system is def a concern. We're also seeing the tornado threat play out right now. 

Imagine if the Ukie & Euro were right with those widespread 70+mph gusts

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Wow. Starting to think the more intense impacts up here will be possible given the accelerating speed of it and it not weakening as much as normal over land due to the trough interaction 

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Agreed on poor mesoscale modeling via the NAM/ARW.  Second slug in VA will find its way up into e PA maybe NJ overnight.  If we get a subtle sic wind convergence zone,  could easily be some 4+ inch amounts by morning. Not staying up to witness...instead get up at 4A and see what's what.  Busy day for NY forum tomorrow including the big damaging winds (fully leafed trees)/rains/FFW's. Could see widespread power outages in the afternoon/eve.

Am aware of svr leading edge this eve in NJ heading north on the nose of the 850jet/fgen/waa but just didn't have the heart to get this mixed in as well...  too much other high impact weather ahead. The TOR's could be a problem tomorrow, if they occur coastal NJ/LI/CT. 

911P

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Wow frequent vivid lightning and shake your windows kind of thunder. Heavy rain. Wind intense to start

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Agreed on poor mesoscale modeling via the NAM/ARW.  Second slug in VA will find its way up into e PA maybe NJ overnight.  If we get a subtle sic wind convergence zone,  could easily be some 4+ inch amounts by morning. Not staying up to witness...instead get up at 4A and see what's what.  Busy day for NY forum tomorrow including the big damaging winds (fully leafed trees)/rains/FFW's. Could see widespread power outages in the afternoon/eve.

Am aware of svr leading edge this eve in NJ heading north on the nose of the 850jet/fgen/waa but just didn't have the heart to get this mixed in as well...  too much other high impact weather ahead. The TOR's could be a problem tomorrow, if they occur coastal NJ/LI/CT. 

911P

If we get a quick inch or two overnight that will soften up the ground for more absorption with tomorrow’s heavier downpours and combined with the winds will have an impact on tree uprooting.

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Got a good first taste here in Long Beach. Probably 20-30 mph gusts. Now I'm wondering if the flashes are lightning or power flashes...

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2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

charge those phones fellas lol, rain on my door step sitting by the window like a kid on christmas for a thunderstorm:lol:

I'm going to the ocean tomorrow to take video

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TWC had a graphic of power  outages 

They had the coast highlighted  as widespread

Be careful 

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

TOMS River from a thunderstorm  peak G 61 kt at 751P  KMJX 032353Z AUTO 25041G61KT 

 

JFK 45 kt right now. 

75 mph at Berkeley Twp, which I think is co-located with the Toms River AWOS at Miller Air Park. So they definitely corroborate each other. 

image.png.e629f9ee518637945a97d0e565d7c820.png

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27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wow. Starting to think the more intense impacts up here will be possible given the accelerating speed of it and it not weakening as much as normal over land due to the trough interaction 

That always the risk. We are lucky this isn't a strong 2 right now or you would be looking at 100mph plus gusts and not  the that's 80mph possible across the shore line.

The forward speed getting caught in the jet was always the concern for this holding its field all the way to 40N 

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Was at the gas station and got half way through filling up and the power blinked from this thunderstorm. Already a few small branches down (one was not so small). If this is a sign of things to come we are in trouble. 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This line was really well modeled on the 12z guidance.

The thunderstorm is meh.  The winds are awesome though. 

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It's been almost 8 years since Sandy. That's a long enough time elapse for trees that were not vulnerable then to be vulnerable now. That is if the winds verify as strong as they're being forecast. Could be pretty substantial tree damage.

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The thunderstorm is meh.  The winds are awesome though. 

Yeah it wasn’t modeled to be severe, just the beginning of much more to come.

Its probably on the verge of being a Cat 2. 

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The thunderstorm is meh.  The winds are awesome though. 

Yeah, rain is probably moderate with it here. Edit-never mind, now torrential but wind died down. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Yeah it wasn’t modeled to be severe, just the beginning of much more to come.

Its probably on the verge of being a Cat 2. 

I wonder how the models overnight will incorporate the strengthening happening now. It won’t have much time to weaken before it’s here. 

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