donsutherland1 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 The region saw its coolest readings since just after mid-June this morning. However, under sunshine, the temperature rebounded into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The day ended with scattered thunderstorms. Another brief cool shot is possible near mid-week before a more prolonged warming trend takes hold. Out west, extreme heat again prevailed in the Southwest. Select high temperatures included: Bishop, CA: 105° Blythe, CA: 117° (old record: 116°, 1950 and 1992) Death Valley, CA: 127° (old record: 125°, 1994) Flagstaff: 91° (old record: 88°, 2002) Kingman, AZ: 108° (old record: 106°, 2001) Lake Havasu City, AZ: 115° Las Vegas: 112° (old record: 111°, 1939) Mesa, AZ: 113° (old record: 106°, 2019) Needles, CA: 117° (tied record set in 1892) Palm Springs, CA: 114° Phoenix: 115° (old record: 114°, 2013) Sacramento: 105° Stockton, CA: 109° (old record: 106°, 1967) Tucson, AZ: 109° (old record: 108°, 2013) Yuma, AZ: 114° (tied record set in 1892 and tied in 1953 and 1992) Death Valley reached 125° or above for the third consecutive day. That ties the August record, which was set during August 11-13, 1933 and tied during August 6-8, 1998. Intense heat will likely continue in that region into the coming weekend although the most severe heat will fade after midweek. Phoenix has an implied 96% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.3° - 96.7°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop. The SOI was -3.52. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.917. On August 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.635 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.367. The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 8/17 EWR: 84 TEB: 83 New Brnswck: 83 LGA: 83 PHL: 83 TTN: 82 NYC: 81 ACY: 80 ISP: 79 BLM: 79 JFK: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 81 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Rained moderately for about 6 minutes. The heavy rain missed just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 From this evening as a thunderstorm passed to the north of Larchmont. The Village received a downpour, but only a few drops fell right at the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 About to get drenched here-storm looks to be right on the Nassau/Suffolk line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Getting hammered in Syosset. .81” of rain in 15 minutes, I’m surprised no flood warning issued. Still raining probably end up close to 1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 1 minute ago, uofmiami said: Getting hammered in Syosset. .81” of rain in 15 minutes, I’m surprised no flood warning issued. Still raining probably end up close to 1”. yea thats headed this way, doesn't look to be weakening at all either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Drenched here in S Huntington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Drenched here in S Huntington. They need a flood advisory for this. Monsoon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Just cleared an inch here, rates well over 3” per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Wunderground stations here seem to have 0.8-0.9". It really poured for a good 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Back edge finally approaching with .93 in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Another line of storms approaching. Several severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Not much rain for the South Shore of Nassau County with the first line of storms. I had about 0.19 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Squall line incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Tornado warning for Warren County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 18, 2020 Author Share Posted August 18, 2020 Great job by @wdrag on highlighting this potential. Spot on as usual. Definitely an impressive line of storms, have to see how it holds together as it approaches portions of the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 37 MPH in Wantage NJ at 105AM. Max so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Line looks to be improving to. Tewr was picking up a lot of rotation. Let’s see if it makes it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Radar starting to fill in behind the initial line now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night. Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 1 minute ago, wdrag said: NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night. Walt Thank you for all your post you crushed this timing and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 An impressive light show with the squall line as it passes through. Frequent CTC/CTG Is accompanying this feature. No strong winds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Torrential rain is occurring with this feature. It’s winding down here and we have picked up 0.79”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Impressive light show indeed out here in Warren County for most of Monday evening. It appears this line maxed out once it went Tornado Warned near Stroudsburg PA. It moved through here with a nice light show and torrential rain. Thankfully no damage at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Good Tuesday morning everyone, I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC. I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM. However, if not, then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. I don't have new topic material for now. Today: Might be an isolated shower in nw NJ and se NYS this afternoon that tracks into CT/LI this evening but a long shot. Wednesday: suspect a narrow band of showers of across NJ and possibly LI early Wednesday with a very brief instability burst. Sat 22nd-Monday 24th: looks a little more interesting, especially Sunday in NJ/LI, for thunderstorms. Late next week: Going to be interesting to watch tropics and northern stream interactions next week. For now, tropic moisture should be shunted east-northeast, to our south but we'll have to look for possible changes in the northern stream Great Lakes area trough. If some of that trough splits south into Tennessee (long shot right now) then we can bring up some of that tropical moisture. For now, most 00z/18 ensemble members of the GEFS, EPS/NAEFS say it stays southeast of us guided by a coherent northern stream west to east dominant flow. 539A/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good Tuesday morning everyone, I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC. I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM. However, if not, then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. Vivid lighting and booming thunder around 2am woke me up despite the AC and a fan running which typically drowns out all other noise, lasted 20-30 minutes, picked up .65” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.8]. Should be +2.9[78.5] by the 26th. 66*(87%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 75*(72%RH) by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 This was the heaviest rain event for Eastern LI in a while. 2.52” at the Southhold mesonet. They picked up 1.12” of that total in just 15 minutes. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout Liquid-Equivalent Precipitation 6 hours: 2.32″ 1 day: 2.52″ 3 days: 3.08″ 7 days: 3.17″ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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