July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wdrag]

I hope this is a good Monday morning! No severe thread today and not much for me to talk about for a few days.  IF anything occurs this afternoon in our NYC forum coverage area, probably restricted on our eastern edge, mainly New Haven County and plenty of doubt.

Looking ahead, actually might be a brief shower tomorrow-Tuesday beneath the cool pool 500MB trough with some instability wrapping southeast.  Then Thursday night (overnight) convection still seems plausible in WAA.

Looks pretty hot for a while Saturday-Wednesday of next week and with PWAT creeping up above 1.8 at times, maybe we'll have a boundary or two to spawn pockets of big convection?

Last night: lightning died in western NJ (as far as I can tell). One shower gust that I found, 26KT at KLGA ~949P (briefly PRESRR also).  And the digital rainfall is posted.. blue starts .48". So no 1" in our forum area...but there is the coverage... too much decay after midnight  which i didn't expect.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 82.5degs., or 4.5degs. AN.       The 8 days after this are averaging an unbelievable 89degs., or about 11degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[78.8].          Should be about  +3.5[80.3] by the 21st.

74*(80%RH) at 6am, cirrus.         84% by 3pm.

[bluewave]

So far the high temperature of the month at NYC and LGA is 96° and 95° at EWR. Latest model runs indicate that our next chance to go 95°+ is around the 20th. We’ll see if the models hold this day 6-10 forecast or back off again. The period around July 20th has been our warmest part of the month for 7 out of the last10 years.

Highest July temperature and date at EWR or LGA since 2010

7-21-19........100

7-1-18...........98

7-20-17.........98

7-23/25-16...99

7-19-15.........98

7-2-14...........96

7-18-13........101

7-18-12........104

7-22-11........108

7-6-10..........103
 

 

[SnoSki14]

I don't think we'll see the elusive 100F. Models have consistently backed off the extreme heat for our area and all the recent rains make it less likely as well. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think we'll see the elusive 100F. Models have consistently backed off the extreme heat for our area and all the recent rains make it less likely as well. 

We'll probably do it in september

[Allsnow]

.15 overnight. It’s been a very wet last 7 days. It’s nice to have it happen in the middle of July 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

.15 overnight. It’s been a very wet last 7 days. It’s nice to have it happen in the middle of July 

my area looked like Phoenix 6/24...since then we've had close to 9 inches of rain-looks like Ireland now.

[FPizz]

.10" last night.

[SACRUS]

Humidity back 79/68 and partly sunny.  Looks less stormy today that initially expected.  Some clouds moving through as winds shift to SW.  Today again with enough sun and assume storms are more scattered, we should see places outside the damp park reach 90.  Tuesday (7/14) looks like a cooler version of Sunday but again temps near 90 before more onshore flow Wed - Thu.  Dry / sunny and temps on mid 80s both days. 

 

Friday toss up day where if winds go around to the SW the heat is on.  Starting Saturday (7/18) should see overall hot pattern beging (gfs seems too cool) and continue thru at least 7/25.  Potential in the period for strong heat 95 (+) especially towards 7/20.  ECm has 850s >16c  for the period and peaking at >20c around next mon/tue (7/20-21) Have to watch weakness undercutting the ridge  (season persistence) which looks anchored between the Plains and Mid West.  

 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 0.26" 9PM ish/12 to 2AMish/13

[Rjay]

17 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i like the cooler  temps in the  central park area makes it more tolerable..

It's not a real thing

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

We'll probably do it in september

And 90 in early October 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's not a real thing

We need some new photos.

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

June 2009

 

June 2013

 

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

And 90 in early October 

We did it last year so why not

[forkyfork]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We did it last year so why not

ewr hit 96 with high humidity. lol

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We did it last year so why not

Lol. Yep. Then come November we will go down to 12 degrees for two nights as we approach are 50/rainy season 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Lol. Yep. Then come November we will go down to 12 degrees for two nights as we approach are 50/rainy season 

Yep big ol torch coming this winter after a cold November.     It'll be interesting to see if the usual suspects go cold and snowy for a 3rd yr in a row....

[qg_omega]

Park has been wet that removes 90 chances significantly 

[Cfa]

Cell ~40 miles to my ENE over eastern Suffolk...

81/74 and raining here now....

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep big ol torch coming this winter after a cold November.     It'll be interesting to see if the usual suspects go cold and snowy for a 3rd yr in a row....

Who really knows...if anything the last few years  have humbled some that put out seasonal Outlooks. IMO the key factors for any winter are the PV and MJO. Unfortunately, those can change drastically from month to month. Last winter the PV got uber strong and locked the cold by the pole. We didn’t get any help from the strat and it turned into a nightmare for snow lovers. In 18-19 we got a SSW in January but it never coupled so we got a few day cold outbreak. It also didn’t help that the nino never showed Up the last two winters. We ended up with more of a Niña like pattern for February 19 and 20.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Who really knows...if anything the last few years  have humbled some that put out seasonal Outlooks. IMO the key factors for any winter are the PV and MJO. Unfortunately, those can change drastically from month to month. Last winter the PV got uber strong and locked the cold by the pole. We didn’t get any help from the strat and it turned into a nightmare for snow lovers. In 18-19 we got a SSW in January but it never coupled so we got a few day cold outbreak. It also didn’t help that the nino never showed Up the last two winters. We ended up with more of a Niña like pattern for February 19 and 20.

Yep, what looks great (or bad) in October and November doesn't always carry through to Dec-Mar.   Last few years seemed to have a development that came out of nowhere and wrecked our winter (last year the PV and also the warm water NE of australia which kept the MJO in 4-5-6)

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

my area looked like Phoenix 6/24...since then we've had close to 9 inches of rain-looks like Ireland now.

Damn, 6" more than here ~30 miles north. My wettest period so far was 1.3" in a few hours late Saturday but I was only at ~1.7 before that.

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep big ol torch coming this winter after a cold November.     It'll be interesting to see if the usual suspects go cold and snowy for a 3rd yr in a row....

October. We are going to get significant snow again in October and early frosts will doom the garden in September. Then it will be 65° t shirt riding weather on Xmas eve again.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Damn, 6" more than here ~30 miles north. My wettest period so far was 1.3" in a few hours late Saturday but I was only at ~1.7 before that.

October. We are going to get significant snow again in October and early frosts will doom the garden in September. Then it will be 65° t shirt riding weather on Xmas eve again.

We had that 4 incher on 7/3, that inflated our totals

[psv88]

90 for the high here

[bluewave]

Impressive first half of summer warmth to our north.

 

[forkyfork]

the start of a heat wave finally made it to day 5

[Maureen]

15 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

F me ignore this just fireworks at 11 PM on a Sunday.  I've heard three times as many fireworks this summer as I have any other summer.

o/t Every. Night. For weeks. 
 

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day made it up to 89 here. Picked up 0.06" of rain overnight.

Current temp 87/DP 63/RH 45%

[Rjay]

High temp was 88 here.  I hit that twice today.  Once in the early afternoon and once at 7pm after the "cold" front came through.  The winds shifted NW and blew the warmer inland air over the area.  Showed up in a lot of the area obs. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Wednesday will feature somewhat cooler weather in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, heat will begin to build later in the week and during the weekend.

Parts of the Southwest saw more scorching heat today. High temperatures included:

Del Rio, TX: 112° (old record: 106°, 1998) ***Tied all-time record set on June 9, 1988***
Phoenix: 114° (tied record set in 1989 and tied in 2003 and 2005)

With a high temperature of 91°, Washington, DC registered its 17th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 22-August 8, 1999 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 18 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was +1.85.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.846.

On July 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.884 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.961.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 43 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°.

Finally, on July 12, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 7.448 million square kilometers. That is the lowest figure on record  for July 12. The previous record was 7.693 million square kilometers in 2011.