July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rtd208]

High for the day made it up to 89 here. Picked up 0.06" of rain overnight.

Current temp 87/DP 63/RH 45%

[Rjay]

High temp was 88 here.  I hit that twice today.  Once in the early afternoon and once at 7pm after the "cold" front came through.  The winds shifted NW and blew the warmer inland air over the area.  Showed up in a lot of the area obs. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Wednesday will feature somewhat cooler weather in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, heat will begin to build later in the week and during the weekend.

Parts of the Southwest saw more scorching heat today. High temperatures included:

Del Rio, TX: 112° (old record: 106°, 1998) ***Tied all-time record set on June 9, 1988***
Phoenix: 114° (tied record set in 1989 and tied in 2003 and 2005)

With a high temperature of 91°, Washington, DC registered its 17th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 22-August 8, 1999 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 18 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was +1.85.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.846.

On July 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.884 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.961.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 43 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°.

Finally, on July 12, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 7.448 million square kilometers. That is the lowest figure on record  for July 12. The previous record was 7.693 million square kilometers in 2011.

 

[uncle W]

90/70 max/min today...

[SACRUS]

7/13

LGA: 91
EWR: 89
BLM: 89
ACY: 89
PHL: 88
JFK: 88
TEB: 87
TTN: 87
New Brnswck: 86
NYC: 86
ISP: 84

[Cfa]

86/73 today, 0.10” with the pop up shower that moved through.

ISP is giving me KNYC vibes this summer.

[doncat]

88/69 split today...0.02"rain.

[wdrag]

 

Good morning.  Might get a brief wrap around shower north of I80 this afternoon? Then looking ahead, not much change from yesterday. Looks to me like WAA elevated convection arrives here near dawn Friday (mostly showers, but a roll of thunder is not impossible).  That debris might clutter things up for a convective event here late Friday afternoon-evening but something to monitor as PWAT and convective indices offer a possibility.  HOT (90+) appears likely for many parts of our non marine influenced coastal plain almost everyday from Saturday (18th) forward through most of next week.  A large convective event or two is possible for portions of our area, guessing from my basis ECMWF modeling, most likely Monday (20th) or Tuesday (21st) of next week when others will additionally comment on the chance of near 100F (and HI 105+), and then again possibly next Thursday or Friday when modeling becomes more uncertain and so for me, much lower confidence. On 100 air temperature... need surface wind to be westerly or northwesterly, especially CP-LI-coastal CT.522A/14

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 84.5degs., or 6.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.7[78.8].        Should be +4.2[80.9] by the 22nd.

73*(67%RH) here at 6am.            80*(51%RH) by Noon.

[bluewave]

80°Julys have become more common since 2010. This July LGA is above and EWR is close. 80° used to be the average July temperature around the Washington DC area.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	82.8	0
2	1999	81.9	0
3	2020	81.5	18
-	2019	81.5	0
4	2013	81.2	0
5	2016	81.1	0
6	1955	80.9	0
7	1966	80.8	0
8	2006	80.7	0
9	1994	80.6	0
10	2012	80.4	0
-	2011	80.4	0
-	1952	80.4	0
11	2008	80.0	0
-	1993	80.0	0
12	2018	79.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0
11	2016	79.9	0
12	2020	79.6	18
-	1983	79.6	0
-	1966	79.6	0

[SACRUS]

78/61 off a low of 66.  Another sensational day out there to help dry things out for those who were soaked by Fay and strong storms.  Temps today in upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90 of we have some over performers on the W / WNW flow.  Next two days (Wed and Thu)  very Southern California like with strong onshore flow, we will see how low it can go for daily maxes on Thu. Overall next few days look mostly dry.

Queue Martha Vandellas - Heatwave

Starting Friday winds should go around to a more NW'rly flow and begin a very hot period for most stations.  Coastal areas will get into the heat on Sat.  The period 7/18 - 7/25 should see the first widespread heat wave for the area and strong heat 95 (+) on several days between Sat (7/18) and Tue (7/22). ECM and GFS have 850 temps >16c Fri - Sat and >18C Sun - Wed, peaking Sun and Mon at 20c.  Some scattered storms Sun and Tue.  Beyond Wd (7/23) first transient front moves through as ridge build back into the Plains and slowly moves east to meet the Western Atlantic Ridge on / around 7/26.  We'll see how it plays out and if there is any cutoff that can cause rogue ULL or onshore flow.  But closest into the period now and it looks hot.  Do we reach triple digits - if we do it would be Sun , Mon  or Tue period this blast. 

Beyond here in model lala land strong ridge signal in the late July period can offer the next opportunity. 

[SACRUS]

13 hours ago, Cfa said:

86/73 today, 0.10” with the pop up shower that moved through.

ISP is giving me KNYC vibes this summer.

Looks like between Sat and next Tue can offer ISP the westerly flow needed for some heat.

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 84.5degs., or 6.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.7[78.8].        Should be +4.2[80.9] by the 22nd.

73*(67%RH) here at 6am.

If we get big heat last week of the month this could be a +5 or even +5.5 month

[bluewave]

Looks like Sunday may be the next chance to go 95°+ in the usual warm spots. Euro has the sea breeze front with SSE winds near or just east of I-95. Could be some high dew point pooling near and east of the sea breeze front.

 

 

[doncat]

56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If we get big heat last week of the month this could be a +5 or even +5.5 month

A  +5 degree departure in July would be near record territory.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, doncat said:

A  +5 degree departure in July would be near 2 record territory.

The 2nd half of the month would need to average around +7.5

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

80°Julys have become more common since 2010. This July LGA is above and EWR is close. 80° used to be the average July temperature around the Washington DC area.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	82.8	0
2	1999	81.9	0
3	2020	81.5	18
-	2019	81.5	0
4	2013	81.2	0
5	2016	81.1	0
6	1955	80.9	0
7	1966	80.8	0
8	2006	80.7	0
9	1994	80.6	0
10	2012	80.4	0
-	2011	80.4	0
-	1952	80.4	0
11	2008	80.0	0
-	1993	80.0	0
12	2018	79.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0
11	2016	79.9	0
12	2020	79.6	18
-	1983	79.6	0
-	1966	79.6	0

crazy that 2016 and 2019 were that warm at ewr with no 100 degree days

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

crazy that 2016 and 2019 were that warm at ewr with no 100 degree days

Newark has had more SSE flow off the bay since the higher dew point surge began in 2016. But the Harrison station was just far enough from the bay to reach 100 several times.

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2020	97	17
2019	101	0
2018	101	0
2017	98	0
2016	97	0
2015	98	0
2014	95	0
2013	102	0
2012	103	2
2011	107	1
2010	106	1

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark has had more SSE flow off the bay since the higher dew point surge began in 2016. But the Harrison station was just far enough from the bay to reach 100 several times.

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2020	97	17
2019	101	0
2018	101	0
2017	98	0
2016	97	0
2015	98	0
2014	95	0
2013	102	0
2012	103	2
2011	107	1
2010	106	1

i've posted before that harrison is more representative of the city of newark than the airport

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i've posted before that harrison is more representative of the city of newark than the airport

Yeah, the bay breeze has been showing up quite a bit since 2016 at the airport. It wasn’t much of a factor from 2010 to 2013 when Newark had the deep westerly flow and all those 100+ days. The subtropical high has been just a little too far north and east in recent years. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

crazy that 2016 and 2019 were that warm at ewr with no 100 degree days

the higher humidity is making 100 degree heat more difficult

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Sunday may be the next chance to go 95°+ in the usual warm spots. Euro has the sea breeze front with SSE winds near or just east of I-95. Could be some high dew point pooling near and east of the sea breeze front.

 

 

100 degree heat possibilities seem to be much reduced with this upcoming heat

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

If we get big heat last week of the month this could be a +5 or even +5.5 month

It's very difficult to get that hot in July even in our hottest summers....I would think +3 or +3.5 is the highest it can go.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

80°Julys have become more common since 2010. This July LGA is above and EWR is close. 80° used to be the average July temperature around the Washington DC area.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	82.8	0
2	1999	81.9	0
3	2020	81.5	18
-	2019	81.5	0
4	2013	81.2	0
5	2016	81.1	0
6	1955	80.9	0
7	1966	80.8	0
8	2006	80.7	0
9	1994	80.6	0
10	2012	80.4	0
-	2011	80.4	0
-	1952	80.4	0
11	2008	80.0	0
-	1993	80.0	0
12	2018	79.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0
11	2016	79.9	0
12	2020	79.6	18
-	1983	79.6	0
-	1966	79.6	0

Yeah well DC is going to crash through their record of most consecutive 90+ days!

My question for you is how long before NYC and Long Island see a big increase in their number of 90 and 100 degree days?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/13/2020 at 12:48 PM, Allsnow said:

And 90 in early October 

or 95.....

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2020 at 5:32 PM, weathermedic said:

90/64 at my station. Amazing how much more comfortable 10 degrees off the dew point feels.

these so-called cold fronts should really be called dew fronts....

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2020 at 5:54 PM, dmillz25 said:

91 here for the high. The Park is trash

the south shore is 3 degrees hotter than "NYC" lmao

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2020 at 7:32 PM, uncle W said:

negative in the summer...positive in the winter...lets hope that does not repeat...

Based on what's been going on it probably wont be as bad as last winter, but still probably below normal snowfall wise (one big snowfall in an otherwise mild winter can always "rescue" us though....a la 2005-06.)

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2020 at 8:40 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region and at or above 90° or above from Newark southward. Overnight, parts of the region will see showers and some thundershowers. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than today.

In parts of the Southwest, record heat prevailed. High temperatures included:

Palm Springs: 121° (old record: 120°, 1958 and 1985)
Phoenix: 116° (old record: 115°, 2005 and 2009)
Tucson: 113° (old record: 110°, 2005)   

With a high temperature of 90°, Washington, DC registered its 17th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 22-August 8, 1999 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 18 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was +16.74.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.959.

On July 11, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.967 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.297.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 42 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°.

 

Don what's the highest temp the CONUS has seen thus far this year?  I heard Death Valley hit 128 two days ago, was that it?  Globally too?

 

[psv88]

87 for a high today, 85 now