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Baroclinic Zone

July 2020 Discussion

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50 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

refreshing morning, 64.9/62.. still a bit cloudy  not muggy at all here, glad to have the AC off for a few days.

Yes windows all wide open, nice to get fresh air flowing through the house. 

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56 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

refreshing morning, 64.9/62.. still a bit cloudy  not muggy at all here, glad to have the AC off for a few days.

 

This. 

 

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles show the uber heat staying west. Sort of MOTS (thank you Dick Albert) and although we'll get some bursts of heat, we'll be prone to fropas like we just had too.

 

Shocked.  Just shocked.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

5-6 day furnace coming.

meh.. nothing we have not experience already, getting used to it.. i mean 64/62 feels refreshing.. body adjusting to the warm/dews

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32 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

meh.. nothing we have not experience already, getting used to it.. i mean 64/62 feels refreshing.. body adjusting to the warm/dews

It may be milder today but they can’t call it COc k. That’s for sunny dry dews in 40’s and 50’s. 

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Dry month here.  Only 1/4" thru mid month now.  Warm month but not hot.  +4.0F.  2 90F readings on the month as well, giving me 4 total now, midway thru Met Summer.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It may be milder today but they can’t call it COc k. That’s for sunny dry dews in 40’s and 50’s. 

Partly sunny and 80/60 is still pretty chamber.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It may be milder today but they can’t call it COc k. That’s for sunny dry dews in 40’s and 50’s. 

Lol every year you try to define what Chamber weather is. In summer we Chamber on clear clean upper 70s low 80s over anything below 62 DP.  Summer is not spring 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Partly sunny and 80/60 is still pretty chamber.

Windows open the breeze feels wonderful.  The mank has been scooted away.

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I definitely wouldn't mind a cold front to clean house with some 558 thicknesses and 82/52 stuff. That's been tough to do in recent summers. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I definitely wouldn't mind a cold front to clean house with some 558 thicknesses and 82/52 stuff. That's been tough to do in recent summers. 

Kinda random but I've been thinking about this lately. There were some articles on this a few months ago but haven't seen anything since but I'm interested in your opinion. Do you think a decrease in flights has had any impact on the performance on forecast models and if so, how significant of an impact is it? 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

5-6 day furnace coming.

Told you CPC would have to knock down the tenor for "excessive northeast heat" for that D 5. The Euro pushing back constantly toward and beyond D6's is really just it correcting it's own amplitude bias as it ages those frames in later cycles... That original excessive bold percentile claim is/was set to begin tomorrow...when it will be 59 F at dawn and smell of low tide clear to Springfield Mass...heh.  Maybe not so extreme as that, buuut...there's no deep tropospheric heat signal available to the northeast - to wit, we assume that to mean New England in this context. 

Frankly ... there is heat over the continent - it's not for lack of supply and demand.  It is, however, a delivery problem... I actually give the models a bit of a break on this one, too.  They were correct to see the subtropical heat expansion scenario.  That much is evident both in the hydrostatic heights and the hypsometric thicknesses permeating south of ...~ 38th parallel across the continent... etc.   But, what's happening above that latitude is the arrival of an unseasonably strong polar jet that wasn't really part of those original ensemble visions of a week ago.. It's sort of insidiously albeit relentlessly gain presentation from the N .. slowly correcting and pressing the heat south on every cycles spanning some five day's worth. 

I'd also give more of a nod to the GFS operational than the Euro on this one, too, because the GFS was always tending to ablate the heat dome's N arc ... running vorticity and jetlets over the top preventing as much liberal polarward migration of the warm 850 mb conveyor...

Contrasting, the Euro's correction schemes may seems to emerge a negative performance with that model, one that I've come to find is more express-able over North America perhaps than other quadrants of the N. hemisphere ( geophysical circumstantially).  What it does is tends to fall back to whatever signal it happens to be managing at D4 ... turning the page into D6 ( as does it's EPS mean, too) and then runs away with whatever remains - which unfortunately for it, that means it tends to look over amplified in the extended(s).  It's the antithesis to winter, why there's too oft D8/9 phantom east coast bombs with the Euro.  But in summer ridging ... 

I mean you look at this,

image.thumb.png.d0122725eaab8b10f25740f041c74475.png

 

...it's kind of hard to run a heat transport to the 40th parallel and beyond ...with that giant grinding jet and power R-wave structure in place. If one has a modicum of real Meteorological and climate wit and wisdom about their ability to analyze, this is anomalous flow for mid summer.  Orienting in parallel some 5 to 7 hydrostatic lines circumnavigating such definitive R-wave construct for mid summer - frankly, this is the summer variant of the jet velocity saturation issue that was observable in recent winters... It's taking a gradient saturated hemisphere in both cases, just that in the summer,...less so. I've seen that kind of R-wave signature and velocity balancing in February back in the 1990s... Rare, and it takes a relaxation period,... but it's f'n July.   This should not look this way... 

Moreover, whenever the models may relax that N jet structure even a little bit, right away, we get more heat...so it's like precariously we are on the fence.. and noise will dictate which side we land on...

 

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43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol every year you try to define what Chamber weather is. In summer we Chamber on clear clean upper 70s low 80s over anything below 62 DP.  Summer is not spring 

Where did 62 dew become the definition? Maybe cuz you know it won’t go below that at your house?and it’s cloudy there. Always changing coc k definitions to fit. No go 

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I definitely wouldn't mind a cold front to clean house with some 558 thicknesses and 82/52 stuff. That's been tough to do in recent summers. 

Wait for October I guess?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wait for October I guess?

This year November or December?

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It may be milder today but they can’t call it COc k. That’s for sunny dry dews in 40’s and 50’s. 

Lol...40s in July?

 

DewpointFrequencyORH.png

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...40s in July?

 

DewpointFrequencyORH.png

A dew point over 60 cannot and has not ever been called COC k was my point. He has added some mysterious number of 62 lol. If you look at official dew scale 60-65 classified as muggy over 65 humid and 70+ oppressive 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It may be milder today but they can’t call it COc k. That’s for sunny dry dews in 40’s and 50’s. 

Like what today is up here.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It may be milder today but they can’t call it COc k. That’s for sunny dry dews in 40’s and 50’s. 

idk what the definition is, but if you are in a shady area, you could sit out there all day.

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52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A dew point over 60 cannot and has not ever been called COC k was my point. He has added some mysterious number of 62 lol. If you look at official dew scale 60-65 classified as muggy over 65 humid and 70+ oppressive 

Those dew scales were also developed by ASOS dew points, not backyard dews.  Move those up 5F for Davis dews at least.

You have to be honest, 62F though doesn’t feel like it did a month ago.  Your body does adapt really quickly.  

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Those dew scales were also developed by ASOS dew points, not backyard dews.  Move those up 5F for Davis dews at least.

You have to be honest, 62F though doesn’t feel like it did a month ago.  Your body does adapt really quickly.  

But the discussion isn’t about adaptation. That’s like when we get a dew 58-60 in winter one day and all the “it’s so humid and sticky “posts fly. Go out and run or hike or anything physical with dews in 60’s and you’ll work up quick sweat like I did at 5:00. A cloudy, muggy day with temps in 70’s and 60’s dews has not and will never be COC k

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Those dew scales were also developed by ASOS dew points, not backyard dews.  Move those up 5F for Davis dews at least.

You have to be honest, 62F though doesn’t feel like it did a month ago.  Your body does adapt really quickly.  

Today ain't muggy in any sense of the word, my god what a Sally. Doing lawn work today and didn't even break a sweat. Good lord 73/61

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Those dew scales were also developed by ASOS dew points, not backyard dews.  Move those up 5F for Davis dews at least.

You have to be honest, 62F though doesn’t feel like it did a month ago.  Your body does adapt really quickly.  

Comfortable as we think 

170705_dewptscale.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Today ain't muggy in any sense of the word, my god what a Sally. Doing lawn work today and didn't even break a sweat. Good lord 73/61

yeah does not feel muggy at all.. maybe down his way and away from shore.

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BOS 60F dew and ORH 59F....definitely doesn't feel muggy. It doesn't feel like 40F COC that we get in May, but for July, this is pretty nice. It helps that the temp is 67F.

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