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Baroclinic Zone

July 2020 Discussion

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

At any rate this week we lose the mank and that's all that matters.  Sunny and 80s with low dews is summer at its finest.  We take before we bake. Or we wake and bake 

I would argue mank has to have overcast.  We had sun but very humid until yesterday when it was warmer and drier.

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Too early.

I saw a Mike  Ventrice Tweet 3 days ago about watching the tropics the next two weeks for a surge in African monsoon that should keep eyes focused on MDR for development based but I certainly didn’t see that being the majority opinion when I looked to see if the tropics were looking like they would “heat up “ in that time frame .

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I saw a Mike  Ventrice Tweet 3 days ago about watching the tropics the next two weeks based on favorable conditions but I certainly didn’t see that being the majority opinion when I looked .

The issue is two fold IMO.

First, while there is a window opened by the MJO, it looks to close quickly. That suppressive phase is not that far behind in his graphic. You’d probably need to time something up perfectly for meaningful development. 

Second and more important, the MJO doesn’t change the fact that the overall environment still looks too hostile in the central and eastern MDR with cooler SSTs, higher stability, and low moisture. If there is a vigorous wave, it’ll likely run into trouble in a hostile initial environment right off Africa, and if it survives that, then run into an area where sinking air would likely suppress convection. Not a good combo.

Given how good the WAM has been and persistence of a standing wave east of Africa, I still expect good waves to be in the pipeline, which matters long term. Once the SAL is pushed back, probably in mid August, I think you’ll probably have a week or two where you have “sacrificial” waves that roll off and die but they’ll set the stage for a more moist MDR. Once that happens, I think we get quite active out there. 

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MDR ssts are generally near or above avg and warm enough to support development

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SSTs are just one part. Sure they’re warm enough but only marginally so in the far eastern Atlantic. If you’re going to get development in that part of the world at this time of year you need better than this to overcome a stable and dry environment. 

The area just isn’t a climo favored area, yet. It needs a little more time. Things look better if a wave can get to ~55° W, but that’s a long trek. 

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Honestly the vibe I’m feeling is typical summer in SNE.  NNE it is extraordinary though.

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dew already down to 60 at HFD

That’s just outflow BL from storms to East. They’re in the 60’s as far west and NW into NY state and Mass as you get . Most folks stay over 60 all week 

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s just outflow BL from storms to East. They’re in the 60’s as far west and NW into NY state and Mass as you get . Most folks stay over 60 all week 

Still 74/64 here at 8pm.

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Very similar synoptically to the cool down over a week ago. Weakly low scoots seaward but this one has more actual surface high

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17 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

At any rate this week we lose the mank and that's all that matters.  Sunny and 80s with low dews is summer at its finest.  We take before we bake. Or we wake and bake 

 

And that's not all we're losing.  We've lost 20 minutes of daylight and are now losing about 1.5 minutes/day.  That'll accelerate to losing over 2 minutes/day by months end.

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Not only is NNE killing SNE in heat humidity its killing us with severe. Morning Tstorms are the best. Getting crushed 

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not only is NNE killing SNE in heat humidity its killing us with severe. Morning Tstorms are the best. Getting crushed 

we need @wxeyeNH to get us some pix of the damage

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9 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

 

And that's not all we're losing.  We've lost 20 minutes of daylight and are now losing about 1.5 minutes/day.  That'll accelerate to losing over 2 minutes/day by months 

only around 5 months until days get longer again. Cheers

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Temperature has been bouncing around between 62-66F this afternoon depending on the intensity of the rain.  A rare cool and rainy day in July.  

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21 hours ago, weathafella said:

Honestly the vibe I’m feeling is typical summer in SNE.  NNE it is extraordinary though.

In more ways than one... considering that going above normal is the new norm in itself.

There's a kind of cultural adaptation/acclimation going on with folks, because we are +1 to +3 since June 1...  Logon is 0 for July ( 14 days worth is a pretty remarkable achievement idiosyncratically, actually...) but otherwise, we gather a "typical" impression from above normal.  A true 0.0 month would be bitching about cold anomalies - heh... interesting. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In more ways than one... considering that going above normal is the new norm in itself.

There's a kind of cultural adaptation/acclimation going on with folks, because we are +1 to +3 since June 1...  Logon is 0 for July ( 14 days worth is a pretty remarkable achievement idiosyncratically, actually...) but otherwise, we gather a "typical" impression from above normal.  A true 0.0 month would be bitching about cold anomalies - heh... interesting. 

 

Logan is not representative . Everywhere else is AN to MAN

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Logan is not representative . Everywhere else is AN to MAN

How many people live in the city of Boston? How many people live on the tarmac at Bradley International Airport?

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Just now, kdxken said:

How many people live in the city of Boston? How many people live on the tarmac at Bradley International Airport?

Logan doesn’t even represent the city of Boston lol. Totally different . Terrible point 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The last BN day at CON was 6/17 and that day was 85/44. :lol:

Today will be July's 1st BN day though we're only about 2.5F AN as we've not gone over 82.  June 29 and 30 were BN, and were days like today, only with even more RA.

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