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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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11 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Thanks, brother!  I'm thinking Tuesday pm with high tide is my best bet.  Enjoy the waves

If you go to Magic Seaweed site or google “Higgins beach magic seaweed surf *forecast)

There is a cool layout if you scroll down that gives the swell angle and size and period over a graph thru Wednesday .

Looks like I stand corrected and there is enough east component in the swell so the elbow of the Cape should not block much initial SE swell even for areas down to Wells beach that will Max out Monday afternoon 

Shows a double peak . Monday Pm for large SE swell (that is a lock ) and another peak of a slightly shorter period ESE swell Tuesday Pm.

Grab some pics.

Im an idiot with downloading them , I have so many nice vids and photos from in front of Newport Mansions Surf that I would like to share, but when I go to add media it’s says picture won’t download or exceeds (something )

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you go to Magic Seaweed site or google “Higgins beach magic seaweed surf *forecast)

There is a cool layout if you scroll down that gives the swell angle and size and period over a graph thru Wednesday .

Looks like I stand corrected and there is enough east component in the swell so the elbow of the Cape should not block much initial SE swell even for areas down to Wells beach that will Max out Monday afternoon 

Shows a double peak . Monday Pm for large SE swell (that is a lock ) and another peak of a slightly shorter period ESE swell Tuesday Pm.

Grab some pics.

Im an idiot with downloading them , I have so many nice vids and photos from in front of Newport Mansions Surf that I would like to share, but when I go to add media it’s says picture won’t download or exceeds (something )

Awesome, thx for the tip!

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you go to Magic Seaweed site or google “Higgins beach magic seaweed surf *forecast)

There is a cool layout if you scroll down that gives the swell angle and size and period over a graph thru Wednesday .

Looks like I stand corrected and there is enough east component in the swell so the elbow of the Cape should not block much initial SE swell even for areas down to Wells beach that will Max out Monday afternoon 

Shows a double peak . Monday Pm for large SE swell (that is a lock ) and another peak of a slightly shorter period ESE swell Tuesday Pm.

Grab some pics.

Im an idiot with downloading them , I have so many nice vids and photos from in front of Newport Mansions Surf that I would like to share, but when I go to add media it’s says picture won’t download or exceeds (something )

Take a screen pic, here is the one you sent me

20200915_162819.jpg

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Pickles,  Paulette swell was still pumping yesterday. Surfline and Magic Weed are using GFS wave watch for forecasts. Key will be if Teddy goes east or over Bermuda and how quick that left turn happens.  Could easily be epic swells

850_8060-1024x682.jpg

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It looks pretty nasty, but as this point maybe not worse case scenario for Nova Scotia. While we know the waters are cool south of NS, the baroclinic assist from the incoming trough starts later Sunday and continues into Monday. By Tuesday, as Teddy approaches, the storm is more stacked and the hurricane/post-tropical is slowing down before landfall. 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This swell is gonna be very long period . I mean sent from the Deep Tropical latitudes . Gonna need some Deeper water spots , to see swell that isn’t closed out .

Do you surf? If so...never knew!

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This swell is gonna be very long period . I mean sent from the Deep Tropical latitudes . Gonna need some Deeper water spots , to see swell that isn’t closed out .

N winds will pump the near shore heights. Watch this closely as there is a monster circulation once it interacts with the ULL

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Do you surf? If so...never knew!

Honestly , i used to often in Florida . I sold my board when I moved up here bc I was a baby with water temperatures. I had some close calls and I pretty much stopped surfing . I body surf large waves but it’s a bit chilly now and honestly I just have a fetish for Swell and Snow That’s fairly equal . I could watch Giant swells for hours , especially from out at a point on a Sunny day .

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Honestly , i used to often in Florida . I sold my board when I moved up here bc I was a baby with water temperatures. I had some close calls and I pretty much stopped surfing . I body surf large waves but it’s a bit chilly now and honestly I just have a fetish for Swell and Snow That’s fairly equal . I could watch Giant swells for hours , especially from out at a point on a Sunny day .

Agree, I gave up boards decades ago. 10 years ago I  was body surfing 10 to 15 feet swells with no problems.  Now I am wih those people on the beach. Paulette was fun and perfect for me with 4 to 8 feet. I could see 10 plus in spots. Pick of the area for me would be Point Judith

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It looks pretty nasty, but as this point maybe not worse case scenario for Nova Scotia. While we know the waters are cool south of NS, the baroclinic assist from the incoming trough starts later Sunday and continues into Monday. By Tuesday, as Teddy approaches, the storm is more stacked and the hurricane/post-tropical is slowing down before landfall. 

Sooo not really bad. Just maybe kinda not good?

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

N winds will pump the near shore heights. Watch this closely as there is a monster circulation once it interacts with the ULL

I haven’t looked closely on the storm motion past Monday Pm , that WNW hook and it’s associated interaction and subsequent extended fetch from ULL interaction you speak of could create some huge waves if that fetch could establish itself in someone’s swell window and sort of slow . 

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Just now, Hazey said:


Sooo not really bad. Just maybe kinda not good?

lol I mean, it's bad. I'm just saying it would be worse if the phasing happened a bit later, or the incoming trough was stronger and less cut-off from the flow as it approaches NS. 

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Agree, I gave up boards decades ago. 10 years ago I  was body surfing 10 to 15 feet swells with no problems.  Now I am wih those people on the beach. Paulette was fun and perfect for me with 4 to 8 feet. I could see 10 plus in spots. Pick of the area for me would be Point Judith

Ruggles will be big . Surf was 30-40% more focused in that deeper water spot w Paulette as opposed to first beach . Second beach was mostly blocked as it has poor SE exposure .Some faces were a solid 12 feet. 

 

Is Teddy’s wind field of 34 knot winds similar size on east side as Paulette 

currently i see forecasts of 6 feet @17 seconds from 148-150 degrees Late Sunday / Monday in RI

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I've been checking out this surf site because it shows a lot more info than some of the others: https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Ogunquit-Beach/forecasts/latest/six_day.  Typical summer wave energy on a decent day might be 200Kj, whereas this forecast has it going up to over 3000Kj on Tuesday. I doubt you'll see many people in the water on Tuesday. Sunday afternoon frankly looks pretty good. If you can see that link here's a screenshot of the forecast for Ogunquit. 

Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 8.43.43 AM.png

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Ruggles will be big . Surf was 30-40% more focused in that deeper water spot w Paulette as opposed to first beach . Second beach was mostly blocked as it has poor SE exposure .Some faces were a solid 12 feet. 
 
Is Teddy’s wind field of 34 knot winds similar size on east side as Paulette 
currently i see forecasts of 6 feet @17 seconds from 148-150 degrees Late Sunday / Monday in RI
I will give a shameless plug of my friends local surf forecasting app. Ww3 data, gfs wind, local cams, and very good spectral analysis from the local buoys. RI specific, but worth checking out: called "HopeWaves" .49be36ddf483d48114800111d22701ae.jpg415fd3545eb37dc373d85ccc8d8fa1b1.jpg

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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For the last 3 day's-worth ...some 12 cycles of the models, et al they have slammed the tropical season shut after this Teddy... fitting that in terms of ACE Teddy symbolizes a finale: it is the single ( probably ..) biggest contributor to the seasonal aggregate, and .. haha, that it would stay safely, unappealingly out of fun's way ...even bulging west upon exit track as a last hesitation mockery-smack in the face. 

It's like the scene in "Airplane," when Leslie Neilson's character smacks the woman a couple of times ..."Calm down!  Get ahold of yourself!"  Then the attendant intercedes, "Captain, your needed in the cabain.  "All right -" but as he steps away ... he hesitates, looks over his shoulder, and steps back in as though 'upon second thought' - one last smack.... Then he finally steps away.   Pretty funny scene - 

That's Teddy...  lol -

Yeah who knows if that abrupt season termination is legit.  The models seem to do above median performance in predicting this recent 2-week flurry of Invests and other waste of timers for lusty dystopian geese, so perhaps they'll perform well to shut it down.  The Euro, GFS, and GGEM operational versions all starkly end up in a dearth of features out there beyond Teddy over the MDR...  It is nearing October so -  

One thing that occurs to me ... Scott had mentioned that although there is above normal actual entities to observe, the ACE has been normal for TC seasonality.  We can thank the odd propensity to sputter everything... Teddy took days and days to gain 20 kts this and pressure that... and whatever's causing that belated realization has afflicted everything - as far as I can recall. Even Laura spent time fighting and languishing.  Even over the last 24 hours since it finally gained it's merit badge ... heh.. Teddy hasn't looked convincing with ragged cloud tagged eye wall features...and weird curved bands that occasionally slice inward around the ring of deep convection from time to time.  Oh, it's a cat 4 sure... you could just feel the writer of the upgrade discussion 'finally!'  But, the last five years?  That thing woulda been a Cat 6 and through eyewall replacements, with satellite TD rotating outer arms so far removed from the central pressure well that they've manage to formulate ephemeral cyclonic nodes... Kind of like artistic analog of the captured Magellanic Cloud dwarfs captured by the Milky Way.  This season?  There isn't enough "Dark Matter" -

Anyway, it is interesting that despite the occurrence counts the ACE is normal... -ish ... I would extend that characterization of the normalcy ( so far...) to also having the occurrence-density timed on top of the climate bell-curve of activity/normal as well, mid September range on the calendar.  

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39 minutes ago, EJM said:

I've been checking out this surf site because it shows a lot more info than some of the others: https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Ogunquit-Beach/forecasts/latest/six_day.  Typical summer wave energy on a decent day might be 200Kj, whereas this forecast has it going up to over 3000Kj on Tuesday. I doubt you'll see many people in the water on Tuesday. Sunday afternoon frankly looks pretty good. If you can see that link here's a screenshot of the forecast for Ogunquit. 

Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 8.43.43 AM.png

I always look at this site with the energy. Very important during coastal flooding events to look at wave energy and current speed.  New Moon goon

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46 minutes ago, drstuess said:

I will give a shameless plug of my friends local surf forecasting app. Ww3 data, gfs wind, local cams, and very good spectral analysis from the local buoys. RI specific, but worth checking out: called "HopeWaves" .49be36ddf483d48114800111d22701ae.jpg415fd3545eb37dc373d85ccc8d8fa1b1.jpg

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

nice man thanks for the link, downloaded the app, love it

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Going to be interesting how Teddy interacts with that trough. To sling that nw at such high latitude will take some forcing. Dull roar from the local media so far. No alarm bells sounding yet. If nothing changes track wise I suspect later this weekend will be hoping as panic hits.

 

 

#NovaScotiaStrong

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Still not giving up :)

Yeah,. you only need about a 500mi correction west in mean track and you'r good.  That's doable in 4 days.

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