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Rtd208

June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

heat advects southwest from canada thurs-fri. totally normal and ok

ecmwf_T850a_us_fh0-144.gif

2020 never fails to impress, just crazy. 

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11 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

2020 never fails to impress, just crazy. 

Not done yet. Imagine a winter storm with the rain changing to snow line moving from the southeast to the northwest, starting in the ocean. Im not even sure if that’s possible than again 104 in the land of the midnight sun .... As always....

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23 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

2020 never fails to impress, just crazy. 

much above normal heat in canada is just above normal heat in nyc..

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

they were near triple digits in Maine....that aint anywhere near normal either for Maine or NYC

 

i seen no predictions for anywhere close to triple digit heat let alone mid 90;s heat for nyc anytime soon...

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Super orange outside, looks like Sahara dust but it’s probably not.

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36 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Hey Don, was that photo with the building taken near Manor Park in Larchmont?

It was taken from Umbrella Point within Manor Park.

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6/28

ACY: 95
LGA: 93
EWR: 93
PHL: 92
BLM: 92
New Brnswk: 91
TEB: 91
TTN: 90
NYC: 90
JFK: 86
ISP: 85

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New York City saw its second 90° day of the month and year today. A few parts of the region experienced strong thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -0.70 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.657.

On June 27, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.467 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.666.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

 

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I’ll add my photos from Muttontown when the cell passed N and we had the gust front roll through.  Had some mammatus prior to the gust front, but was in the pool and couldn’t take pics.

Gust front approaching:

640DDB31-853E-452A-967B-2FADB271774E.thumb.jpeg.ed74fab50ac92f44cb96e80d3b0a20ab.jpeg

 

Gust front after passage:

8210A834-48AF-4C44-A8C2-697EFEE7112A.thumb.jpeg.c519a9a6533e556e27bf598c582893df.jpeg

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

A backdoor warm front on the 3rd followed by a backdoor cold front on the 4th. 

it's not a 2' KU but it's still another extreme to add to the list

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Have taken a bit more time to look ahead these next 6 days (thru Saturday) when convection should be flirting with our area many afternoons (especially north of I80). For hailers, in our NY forum area, it looks to me like Wednesday afternoon is the most probable day. Not saying 1" diameter or greater, but thinking hail is in the mix that afternoon due to cape/lightning density and KI projections. Not posting a separate thread for that day as it's probably mostly routine scattered heavy rainers, a bit of small hail here and there. 

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The last 2 days of June are averaging 76degs., or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[73.6].       June should end at  +2.4[73.8].

The first 10 days of July are averaging 83 or +7 with today's run.

72*  here at 6am, hazy blue.           79* by Noon.       80* at 1pm with cumulus west.        87* by 4pm, still more sun than clouds.

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Have taken a bit more time to look ahead these next 6 days (thru Saturday) when convection should be flirting with our area many afternoons (especially north of I80). For hailers, in our NY forum area, it looks to me like Wednesday afternoon is the most probable day. Not saying 1" diameter or greater, but thinking hail is in the mix that afternoon due to cape/lightning density and KI projections. Not posting a separate thread for that day as it's probably mostly routine scattered heavy rainers, a bit of small hail here and there. 

 There should be some big winners in the rain department with slow moving convection. Any storms that setup and air could produce flash flooding. Now to get one to setup on the uws!

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81/63 and a bit drier then the past 2 days.  Currently mostly sunny but clouds building down from the north.  Overall anther warm day that may see the sunnier spots bet guidance and nab a 90 degree reading.  Trough builds down and cuts off over the northeast creating unsettled weather Tue (6/30) - Thu (7/2).  More N / NE flow component this week with Wed and Thu looking to be mainly cloudy and could see widespread showers. 

 

The trough / ULL is pushing out by Fri and the winds go more W/NW pushing the heat into the region.  July 4th should start warm then see more of a NE cooler flow push in for the evening which continues Sunday. Warmer flow kicks of a hot week by Mon 7/6 (coastal/beach areas by Tue 7/7).  Off to the races 7/6 and beyond with chance at strong heat and seasons first widespread heatwave.

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yesterdays storms totals.

 

TEB: 0.14
NYC: 0.11
EWR:  0.01
LGA: 0.02
JFK: 0.52

 

 

 

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10AM ROundup

 

ACY: 83
New Brnswk: 82
EWR: 82
PHL: 82
JFK: 81
BLM: 81
LGA: 79
TTN: 79
ISP: 77
TEB: 77
NYC: 76  (0.10 rain yesterday impact )

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16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

81/63 and a bit drier then the past 2 days.  Currently mostly sunny but clouds building down from the north.  Overall anther warm day that may see the sunnier spots bet guidance and nab a 90 degree reading.  Trough builds down and cuts off over the northeast creating unsettled weather Tue (6/30) - Thu (7/2).  More N / NE flow component this week with Wed and Thu looking to be mainly cloudy and could see widespread showers. 

 

The trough / ULL is pushing out by Fri and the winds go more W/NW pushing the heat into the region.  July 4th should start warm then see more of a NE cooler flow push in for the evening which continues Sunday. Warmer flow kicks of a hot week by Mon 7/6 (coastal/beach areas by Tue 7/7).  Off to the races 7/6 and beyond with chance at strong heat and seasons first widespread heatwave.

Have a hunch in a few days, Wed-Thu, the guidance will mute the heat in the extended. It’s been the pattern this summer so far & until the heat is within a few days on the models, I’m not biting on a heatwave. 

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Just now, uofmiami said:

Have a hunch in a few days, Wed-Thu, the guidance will mute the heat in the extended. It’s been the pattern this summer so far & until the heat is within a few days on the models, I’m not biting on a heatwave. 

For sure, certainly a possibility.  Overall warmer than normal (+2 - +3 ) with real heat /records muted by ridge axis being too north.  As we push through we may see this expand and the stronger heat center more south of where it has been.  Or it could go north across the poles into the south pole.

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