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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Have taken a bit more time to look ahead these next 6 days (thru Saturday) when convection should be flirting with our area many afternoons (especially north of I80). For hailers, in our NY forum area, it looks to me like Wednesday afternoon is the most probable day. Not saying 1" diameter or greater, but thinking hail is in the mix that afternoon due to cape/lightning density and KI projections. Not posting a separate thread for that day as it's probably mostly routine scattered heavy rainers, a bit of small hail here and there. 

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The last 2 days of June are averaging 76degs., or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[73.6].       June should end at  +2.4[73.8].

The first 10 days of July are averaging 83 or +7 with today's run.

72*  here at 6am, hazy blue.           79* by Noon.       80* at 1pm with cumulus west.        87* by 4pm, still more sun than clouds.

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Have taken a bit more time to look ahead these next 6 days (thru Saturday) when convection should be flirting with our area many afternoons (especially north of I80). For hailers, in our NY forum area, it looks to me like Wednesday afternoon is the most probable day. Not saying 1" diameter or greater, but thinking hail is in the mix that afternoon due to cape/lightning density and KI projections. Not posting a separate thread for that day as it's probably mostly routine scattered heavy rainers, a bit of small hail here and there. 

 There should be some big winners in the rain department with slow moving convection. Any storms that setup and air could produce flash flooding. Now to get one to setup on the uws!

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81/63 and a bit drier then the past 2 days.  Currently mostly sunny but clouds building down from the north.  Overall anther warm day that may see the sunnier spots bet guidance and nab a 90 degree reading.  Trough builds down and cuts off over the northeast creating unsettled weather Tue (6/30) - Thu (7/2).  More N / NE flow component this week with Wed and Thu looking to be mainly cloudy and could see widespread showers. 

 

The trough / ULL is pushing out by Fri and the winds go more W/NW pushing the heat into the region.  July 4th should start warm then see more of a NE cooler flow push in for the evening which continues Sunday. Warmer flow kicks of a hot week by Mon 7/6 (coastal/beach areas by Tue 7/7).  Off to the races 7/6 and beyond with chance at strong heat and seasons first widespread heatwave.

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16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

81/63 and a bit drier then the past 2 days.  Currently mostly sunny but clouds building down from the north.  Overall anther warm day that may see the sunnier spots bet guidance and nab a 90 degree reading.  Trough builds down and cuts off over the northeast creating unsettled weather Tue (6/30) - Thu (7/2).  More N / NE flow component this week with Wed and Thu looking to be mainly cloudy and could see widespread showers. 

 

The trough / ULL is pushing out by Fri and the winds go more W/NW pushing the heat into the region.  July 4th should start warm then see more of a NE cooler flow push in for the evening which continues Sunday. Warmer flow kicks of a hot week by Mon 7/6 (coastal/beach areas by Tue 7/7).  Off to the races 7/6 and beyond with chance at strong heat and seasons first widespread heatwave.

Have a hunch in a few days, Wed-Thu, the guidance will mute the heat in the extended. It’s been the pattern this summer so far & until the heat is within a few days on the models, I’m not biting on a heatwave. 

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Just now, uofmiami said:

Have a hunch in a few days, Wed-Thu, the guidance will mute the heat in the extended. It’s been the pattern this summer so far & until the heat is within a few days on the models, I’m not biting on a heatwave. 

For sure, certainly a possibility.  Overall warmer than normal (+2 - +3 ) with real heat /records muted by ridge axis being too north.  As we push through we may see this expand and the stronger heat center more south of where it has been.  Or it could go north across the poles into the south pole.

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Warmest June at EWR and  LGA since 2010 and 2011. But the monthly maximum temperatures were much lower. Fits with the highest June maximum temperatures going to our north.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max  Temperature
1 2010 76.2 98
2 2011 74.5 102
3 2020 74.1 93
4 2013 73.3 96
5 2016 72.9 91
6 2014 72.8 92
7 2019 72.7 93
- 2017 72.7 99
8 2012 72.4 99
9 2018 72.1 96
10 2015 72.0 93
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max  Temperature
1 2010 76.0 96
2 2020 75.8 93
3 2013 74.0 96
4 2017 73.6 101
- 2016 73.6 90
5 2018 72.9 96
- 2012 72.9 98
6 2019 72.8 94
7 2011 72.7 97
8 2014 72.5 88
9 2015 71.3 92


 

 

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7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 There should be some big winners in the rain department with slow moving convection. Any storms that setup and air could produce flash flooding. Now to get one to setup on the uws!

this may be one type of set up where the south shore cashes in.

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmest June at EWR and  LGA since 2010 and 2011. But the monthly maximum temperatures were much lower. Fits with the highest June maximum temperatures going to our north.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max  Temperature
1 2010 76.2 98
2 2011 74.5 102
3 2020 74.1 93
4 2013 73.3 96
5 2016 72.9 91
6 2014 72.8 92
7 2019 72.7 93
- 2017 72.7 99
8 2012 72.4 99
9 2018 72.1 96
10 2015 72.0 93
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max  Temperature
1 2010 76.0 96
2 2020 75.8 93
3 2013 74.0 96
4 2017 73.6 101
- 2016 73.6 90
5 2018 72.9 96
- 2012 72.9 98
6 2019 72.8 94
7 2011 72.7 97
8 2014 72.5 88
9 2015 71.3 92


 

 

are the higher maxes to our north this year because it's drier further north?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmest June at EWR and  LGA since 2010 and 2011. But the monthly maximum temperatures were much lower. Fits with the highest June maximum temperatures going to our north.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max  Temperature
1 2010 76.2 98
2 2011 74.5 102
3 2020 74.1 93
4 2013 73.3 96
5 2016 72.9 91
6 2014 72.8 92
7 2019 72.7 93
- 2017 72.7 99
8 2012 72.4 99
9 2018 72.1 96
10 2015 72.0 93
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max  Temperature
1 2010 76.0 96
2 2020 75.8 93
3 2013 74.0 96
4 2017 73.6 101
- 2016 73.6 90
5 2018 72.9 96
- 2012 72.9 98
6 2019 72.8 94
7 2011 72.7 97
8 2014 72.5 88
9 2015 71.3 92


 

 

I doubt JFK makes it far up its list....no 90 degree highs yet.

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54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I doubt JFK makes it far up its list....no 90 degree highs yet.

First June since 2009 with no 90 degree days at JFK. The 89 today was the high for the month. Very few warm offshore flow days with the onshore flow dominating.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 89 1
2019 91 0
2018 91 0
2017 94 0
2016 92 0
2015 90 0
2014 91 0
2013 91 0
2012 97 0
2011 93 0
2010 98 0
2009 83 0
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