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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Getting past the ULL Fri / Sat, the rest of the memorial day weekend looks much like the past week onshore flow / Calinfornia style weather.

Temps warming Tue/Wed with first shot of 90s Thu-Sat (5/28 - 5/30) in the warmer spots - expecting temps to beat current guidance..  Cold front arrives Sat/Sun next weekend with cooler start to June 5/31 - 6/4 as ridge builds into the  Plains/ GL.  Gotta watch hung / slow frontal passage 5/31 - 6/2.  Way out there there but  6/5  still troughing pushing into the WC, with ridge  orientation needing to improve to get the sustained warmth into the east.  Will be interesting to see how it progresses and if the current dry is ended with an abrupt soaker a few days.  

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1 hour ago, tek1972 said:

Seems like the seasons have been pushed forward a month lately. It's gonna be June soon and it feels like end of April.
Woke up to 35 degrees yesterday. By the time we heat up we start losing daylight.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

There had been a June cool pocket over the Northeast since the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

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F7FD2329-40FF-4CBC-87EB-0DF8311793D8.png.85adfdfbc5f4ef9de21c8d07541bcefb.png

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74 with clouds starting to roll in now. Quick 20 degree jump this morning. It was nice to actually get in the 70s again.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Getting past the ULL Fri / Sat, the rest of the memorial day weekend looks much like the past week onshore flow / Calinfornia style weather.

Temps warming Tue/Wed with first shot of 90s Thu-Sat (5/28 - 5/30) in the warmer spots - expecting temps to beat current guidance..  Cold front arrives Sat/Sun next weekend with cooler start to June 5/31 - 6/4 as ridge builds into the  Plains/ GL.  Gotta watch hung / slow frontal passage 5/31 - 6/2.  Way out there there but  6/5  still troughing pushing into the WC, with ridge  orientation needing to improve to get the sustained warmth into the east.  Will be interesting to see how it progresses and if the current dry is ended with an abrupt soaker a few days.  

Any chance of snow? :D

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Up to 76 here remaining partly cloudy for a bit longer.  

 

DIX_loop.gif

 

 

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75 here, on the edge of clear (to the south) and overcast (to the north). Feels distinctly bright, max sun angle is 70° now.

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Euro has first 1-2” rain event since mid-April tonight into Saturday. 
 

72B03DD6-2FAF-4EF7-B3B0-5A12086CF6FD.gif.190d0a8c5d87f697ea5d45adac862c5e.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro has first 1-2” rain event since mid-April tonight into Saturday. 
 

72B03DD6-2FAF-4EF7-B3B0-5A12086CF6FD.gif.190d0a8c5d87f697ea5d45adac862c5e.gif

 

Looks like this morning's NAM-there will be a heavy pocket of rain somewhere

-

namconus_apcpn_neus_15.png

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro has first 1-2” rain event since mid-April tonight into Saturday. 
 

72B03DD6-2FAF-4EF7-B3B0-5A12086CF6FD.gif.190d0a8c5d87f697ea5d45adac862c5e.gif

 

GFS has much less, I suspect Euro is wrong again.  We will see

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22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

GFS has much less, I suspect Euro is wrong again.  We will see

The new HRRR v4 has been doing pretty well this spring. It has areas that get 1-2” under the best banding. But areas outside the main bands will get less.
 

6A8F6141-5E5B-48F7-962D-E5147C4FA844.png.f90f13ff9389a1105f33d484cb8f05fd.png

 

 

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24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

First time hiking up Jayne’s Hill today despite it being 10 mins from me. Was gorgeous. 

Try west hills park also.  Very cool in there

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Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the 70s across the area. High temperatures included:

Brigeport: 75°
Islip: 76°
New York City: 76°
Newark: 77°
Philadelphia: 71°

An area of light rain moved through parts of the New York City region this evening. Tomorrow will feature mainly cloudy skies with periods of rain.

Sunday and Memorial Day should feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +5.15 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.457.

On May 21, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.157 (RMM). The May 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.202.

Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

First time hiking up Jayne’s Hill today despite it being 10 mins from me. Was gorgeous. 

I used to go there all the time. In the winter you can stand on that rock and see pretty far. 

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2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

GFS has much less, I suspect Euro is wrong again.  We will see

I would take the under.

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro has first 1-2” rain event since mid-April tonight into Saturday. 
 

 

 

This looks good as of now. Nice slug of moisture to our south. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 68degs., or about 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.5[57.6].          Should be -2.0[60.3] by the 31st.

60* here at 6am.(FOG <0.1mile)      62* by 9am(Fog >2miles)    10:30am-back to 60* and little visibility.    65* by 1pm, visibility >5miles.     59* by 8pm.       58* at 9pm.

Was only 68* here yesterday, with City  at 77*

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