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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Dead Jim?

Not really.  It’s still there as a possibility. But even a best case scenario it’s weak sauce. Whatever ejects out west is crashing into a huge ridge and de amplifying.  Could a slightly stronger wave lead to a mini thump...maybe but the whole setup was and is rather limited for anything more than conversation flakes. 

I’m completely swamped at work so haven’t been able to analyze or post much. This is by far the busiest time of year for me. The month before spring break is when everyone decides yearly stuff needs to get done and every deadline hits. 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not really.  It’s still there as a possibility. But even a best case scenario it’s weak sauce. Whatever ejects out west is crashing into a huge ridge and de amplifying.  Could a slightly stronger wave lead to a mini thump...maybe but the whole setup was and is rather limited for anything more than conversation flakes. 

I’m completely swamped at work so haven’t been able to analyze or post much. This is by far the busiest time of year for me. The month before spring break is when everyone decides yearly stuff needs to get done and every deadline hits. 

The bolded is what I'm tracking.  It certainly could moisten up once we get in the short range . I agree with the limit of impact.  I do think if we can get a modest slug to move in maybe a 1-2" type event is possible.  Most could care less unless its wsw material but snow is snow to me and it's still winter after all .

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The bolded is what I'm tracking.  It certainly could moisten up once we get in the short range . I agree with the limit of impact.  I do think if we can get a modest slug to move in maybe a 1-2" type event is possible.  Most could care less unless its wsw material but snow is snow to me and it's still winter after all .

yeah but for the usuals...you, PSU and Mappy etc. For ~70% of us theres virtually no shot at that

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27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The bolded is what I'm tracking.  It certainly could moisten up once we get in the short range . I agree with the limit of impact.  I do think if we can get a modest slug to move in maybe a 1-2" type event is possible.  Most could care less unless its wsw material but snow is snow to me and it's still winter after all .

Maybe but the flat west to east flow is a problem. By the time the wave gets gets there is very little reflection left to turn the wind trajectory so we are left with WAA being offset by downsloping. 

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23 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think because even on good runs it’s only 1-2” (if that) for most. I don’t think at this point anyone cares about 1-2”. But if we get a run that shows 6”+ across guidance I bet this thread lights up quick. 

There is a slight chance the wave juices up some as we get closer but the flow is de-amplified in the east.  Cold is only one part of the equation. 

Track it. Its gonna evolve to a 6 inch snow all across guidance.

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's dead.

The winter I mean.

 

Yeah I know what the next post will be- it was never alive!

When you think about it, it’s the perfect ending.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When you think about it, it’s the perfect ending.

I would prefer a happy ending. 

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Colder further south with the paltry amount of precip for HH.  I’m just pointing it out. Early morning snow tv not off the table.  

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16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Colder further south with the paltry amount of precip for HH.  I’m just pointing it out. Early morning snow tv not off the table.  

Early morning? Which means it would not be any TV at all...lol

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21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Early morning? Which means it would not be any TV at all...lol

You and I will be up. We can sleep when we are dead 

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup there it is just in time to be just too late. 

7F5C43F3-00FA-415E-A2F5-623FDC4F50CA.thumb.png.809933fdf9b4f5b887a5c640d7564399.png

Eh, at this point it's whatever...I'm waiting for the summer when we can start getting ENSO clues, lol

I'll have to play a bit of a fool to go against your 5-10" prediction...but since we've never gone through a solar minimum without profiting with at least an average winter...I'll go with history and hope it continues, lol

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Eh, at this point it's whatever...I'm waiting for the summer when we can start getting ENSO clues, lol

I'll have to play a bit of a fool to go against your 5-10" prediction...but since we've never gone through a solar minimum without profiting with at least an average winter...I'll go with history and hope it continues, lol

Yea but they include like a year before and 2 after in that so it could be the year after next. But the fact the NAO is due to flip base states is one thing to hold out hope on. But there are more negatives than positives in the always murky long range crystal ball. But honestly that’s normal. Our base state is suck. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but they include like a year before and 2 after in that so it could be the year after next. But the fact the NAO is due to flip base states is one thing to hold out hope on. But there are more negatives than positives in the always murky long range crystal ball. But honestly that’s normal. Our base state is suck. 

Are you sure about that? Unless I'm looking at it wrong, the benefits usually happened either the winter of the minimum (i.e if the minimum was like October and the winter that followed was good--like the 1995 minimum) or the following winter (which is what happened with the 2008 minimum) That's why I was thinking this winter would count as one and perhaps whatever lag effect there is we would see next winter.

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nams look snowy :sled:

Where's Ji...

Yep, Now if we can only get one of the better models to follow suit.  -Wes J.

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4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

3km NAM is rainy.

GFS is beefy-er with the precip..wont matter much but it does look more robust than 6z

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