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Dr. Dews

March 2020 disc/obs

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3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Huge lightning strike in Canton and the power went out instantly. The day we bought a ton of perishables too, great.

Holy crap I think I was near that bolt! Bona ride storm with frequent lightning!  Almost an explosion after 

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Had some really loud thunder a while ago while relaxing out on the back porch (enclosed and a wood stove) with a scotch in hand. 

Sometimes you just gotta appreciate nature and this virus crap has been a good way to find that escape more than usual. 

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I think beginning next year the countdown thread will be until March instead of May. Been getting a few nice events the past several years this early. Since I hold the copyright to it I can make that change!!!

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Had some really loud thunder a while ago while relaxing out on the back porch (enclosed and a wood stove) with a scotch in hand. 

Sometimes you just gotta appreciate nature and this virus crap has been a good way to find that escape more than usual. 

It was a nice break for sure. 

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Nice thunder -SN ob out of BML. 

KBML 300223Z AUTO 15011G19KT 2 1/2SM VCTS -SN FEW026 BKN038 OVC045 02/M02 A3007 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NW 

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12 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Snow @tamarack's place?

3.0" of 4:1 stuff and 32° with SN- at 6:30 this morning.  Some nice parachutes 4-5 yesterday aft, then rimey snow that was more rime than flake - bounced like small IP but opaque with irregular shapes.  Back to SN- before dawn.  TS apparently died before getting this far east.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1106 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             LEICESTER               42.25N  71.90W
03/29/2020  M1.25 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR THE SPENCER LINE

0853 PM     HAIL             WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0853 PM     HAIL             LEICESTER               42.25N  71.90W
03/29/2020  M1.00 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0856 PM     HAIL             WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
03/29/2020  M1.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO

0902 PM     HAIL             HAVERHILL               42.78N  71.09W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO

0920 PM     HAIL             WOONSOCKET              42.00N  71.50W
03/29/2020  M1.00 INCH       PROVIDENCE         RI   BROADCAST MEDIA

i

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For those of us that long for the warmth of spring and the return vibe of vitality, leading the anticipation of summer ... etc, etc, some encouraging signs from the 00z EPS mean that the recent Euro operational ideas of relaxing the seasonality/cool appeal in the east is now only a week away.  

I'm looking forward... because we can hand-ring and wanton lust for these -NAO but like this one hammers over heads and the lessen still fails to get through skulls ...the -NAO is not what people think it means for winter enthusiasts.  It's a suppression signal ...as the lower/Mid Atlantic low escape and failure along the EC proves for the millionth time. 

Heather Archembault's paper from way back in the day explained statistically in fairly discrete results that the primary storm-loading pattern for the eastern U.S. is the PNA modality... with, as her conclusion paraphrases, a weaker corresponding similar behavior with the NAO.  But, popular media and science-fad of the day seemed to flip this around and to this day,... approximately 1.5 generations-worth of individuals scientifically reared during that era, persist with that faux perception.  

The/her papers really just point out the the key to a large scale instibility is a disruption passing thru.  It's really just using statistical methods to point out what is intuitively obvious ( to me..), but has it's huge value and merit in the scientific process. If a system reaches and equilibrium state, than it is quiescent and 'not storming' ... Then, something comes along to perturb the field ... cyclones results.  That 'perturbation' of the field IS the changing index - the upward or downward moving teleconnector index means that there is something perturbing - that is why cyclones happen more frequently at the teleconnector inflection points.  Since the atmosphere in the northern Hemisphere tends to move west to east at mid latitudes...it then adds to the intuitive notion that the PNA would be a better loader than the NAO... because the PNA comes from the west.   

The NAO probably has a better use as a 'modifier' ... destructive or constructively interfering with the PNA's signal(s) depending on which way its index is moving in tandem.  Almost like the MJO; when the WPO/NP/EPO are out of sync with the MJO, the MJO doesn't seem to have much echo in the flow as an enforcing agent... Yet, when they sync up, look out! Synergy results and the flow characteristics can get extreme in either direction.  The NAO probably adds ( not in the exact same way...), but offers modulations that help/constructively interfere's with troughs, or vice versa... to mention, helping cold loading in front-sides to enhance baroclinicity/thermodynamic instability that way...and on and so on. 

Anyway, this NAO migration that's going to unfold over this next 3 to 5 days ...hearkens my attention back to this annoying misconception that was handed down by early assumptions in the late 1980s and early 1990s and everyone ran away with...  I'd take a pulsed rising PNA with antecedent -EPOs any day before a NAO does anything as a winter enthusiast. 

But at this time of year...I don't want either.  I'm hoping the NAO relaxing while the PNA fails to actually go positive, as per last night, are indications that the EPS/Op. Euro are onto a warm mid month

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Probably time for an April thread. March has seemed to drag on forever.

Looks like we just need to get through the ULL garbage this week and maybe we get some baby step improvements beyond this weekend. At least we seem to be done with the really cold nights.

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I'd start that thread but in my own proclivity for harsh lament over the dreaded month of April in New England, I wouldn't have anything other than hate for God to say so ... I can only butcher Samuel Clemens, a.k.a. 'Mark Twain''s bemusement:  "the worst winter I ever experienced was "April" in New England"  ... his version '..was a summer San Francisco' but it works -

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Found a small puddle in the corner of my basement this morning.  That shows how heavy the rain was last night as this has only happened a few times in the past 12 years.  Happened during Irene too. 

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Snow has been steady all afternoon, ground is white.

 

Big big winter incoming!

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