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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Gorgeous outside currently. 

Yet, people are rooting for a slop fest on Sunday, which is just going to disappear in 2 days anyway with the warm up. So why bother? 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

March 2002, 12 redux....

Even a temperature departure closer to 2016 or 2010 would be impressive.

March...EWR...NYC...LGA

2019.....-1.2...-0.8...-1.0

2018.....-1.7...-2.4...-1.4

2017.....-2.3...-3.3...-1.2

2016...+7.0...+6.4...+6.8

2015....-4.4...-4.4....-4.3

2014....-4.3...-4.8....-5.1

2013....-1.8...-2.4....-1.7

2012...+9.2..+8.4...+8.6

2011...+1.5...-0.2....-0.3

2010...+6.1..+5.7....+5.8

 

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Temperatures rose well into the 50s today in the Middle Atlantic region. During mid-week, high temperatures could reach the 60s as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal.

Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring some snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -7.80 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.814.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 10, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March.

On March 1, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.496 (RMM). The February 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.971.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

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The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 8degs. AN.

The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45degs.[38/52], or about 4degs. AN.       It still amazingly has 2" of snow near the 11th-12th.     The 12Z update is [39/52] and no snow.

For spite, the LR modelling shows a continuous trough for us starting March 21 and going on and on to early May, when the modelling ends.    lol.

50* here at 6am.     Well 50* seems to have held by me since 5am, now 50* at 8am.       51* at 9am.        Sorry, down to 48* by Noon---got to 52* first, however.       Spent most of the PM (2:30-4:30) at 46*,47* with rain/fog.

 

2020030300_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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If NYC can hold the low of 50 degrees so far, then it will be a new record warm minimum temperature for March 3rd. The average low is still just 32 degrees. It will probably come down to the timing of the convection and frontal passage tonight. So March is getting off to a more springlike start for a change.

3/3 48 in 1991 47 in 2004 47 in 1878

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KNYC&table=1&num=168&banner=off

2798C5FC-AF10-4372-B82D-24F19EEC3162.gif.2d62c1d7022849a9e61672f6cc8943b1.gif

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Looking like we could really see a run at 70 next week. That is truly impressive and will be the first spring break to feel like spring around here for those on break. Few years ago we spent spring break on our 'babymoon' covering San Diego, Palm Spring, Mount San Jacinto, and Phoenix. It was amazing and probably my favorite area of the country. From the beach to snow in one day? Yes please! 

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3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Looking like we could really see a run at 70 next week. That is truly impressive and will be the first spring break to feel like spring around here for those on break. Few years ago we spent spring break on our 'babymoon' covering San Diego, Palm Spring, Mount San Jacinto, and Phoenix. It was amazing and probably my favorite area of the country. From the beach to snow in one day? Yes please! 

We’ve had 90’s in March, 70’s are not that impressive

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1 minute ago, SnowFeen1 said:

We’ve had 90’s in March not that impressive

It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998. 

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39 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

We’ve had 90’s in March, 70’s are not that impressive

The average highs in March range from 46 to 55 in NYC. 70 is well above normal for any point in the month. I’ll sign up for some days like that, especially after what March has given us the last few years.

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34 minutes ago, matt9503 said:

The average highs in March range from 46 to 55 in NYC. 70 is well above normal for any point in the month. I’ll sign up for some days like that, especially after what March has given us the last few years.

Dude we’ve had 70’s in january

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998. 

Right, and spring has turned out to be cool and wet for the last several years, March included.

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on March 22nd 1998 NYC got 5" of snow...2-3" on Staten island...from March 27th to 31st  the temperature topped 80 degrees...90 imby on the 31st...April 1998 had no days in the 80's...the highest temp was 73 near the end of the month...

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998. 

I remember March, 2012 hitting the 80’s a couple of days after St. Patrick’s Day. Had to turn my A/C on....earliest in the season I can ever remember having to do that

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on March 22nd 1998 NYC got 5" of snow...2-3" on Staten island...from March 27th to 31st  the temperature topped 80 degrees...90 imby on the 31st...April 1998 had no days in the 80's...the highest temp was 73 near the end of the month...
Mets first opener in March, and it was 87 degrees at Shea. I remember walking around Liberty Science Center on a class field trip in shorts.

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Today saw readings again reach much above normal levels. In the South, Atlanta picked up 0.49" rain today bringing its year-to-date precipitation to 20.03". That's the highest figure so early in the year. The previous record was 19.38" in 1990.

Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring a little snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Recent model runs have kept the storm farther offshore lowering the probability of snowfall. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +2.11 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.992.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 11, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the middle of the second week of March.

On March 2, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.774 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.496.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

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Just now, SI Mailman said:

Just heard some thunder outside my window.

ZzzzZZZZZzZZ

wake me up when we have snow on the ground 

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GETTING SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER/RAIN/WIND here (Coney Island) at 10:12pm.     53* now.

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