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Chicago Storm

Mid-week potential of something somewhere

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Freakin' amazingly trash models this winter. Just a couple of days ago, I thought Alek's 5.5 call was going to bust due to the best snows being in WI, while I was waiting on a participation trophy for back end reacharound flakes.

Tonight's 3km NAM bullseyes us with 7". Unbelievably bad. I feel bad for forecasters as every time the models pull this crap, they have to take the brunt of it from the public.

And how much money has been spent to tweak and upgrade these models in recent years?

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35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z UK..... wow.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Yeahhh... I think the truth of this storm will be somewhere closer to the GEM than this,, that's like comedcially underamped like the GFS, and the WPC agrees

Preference: 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET through 12Z/27
            non 12Z CMC blend from 12Z/27 to 12Z/28

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Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Yeahhh... I think the truth of this storm will be somewhere closer to the GEM than this,, that's like comedcially underamped like the GFS, and the WPC agrees

Preference: 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET through 12Z/27
            non 12Z CMC blend from 12Z/27 to 12Z/28

Denial is a perfectly natural step in the grieving process. 

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I liked it better about 12 or 13 years ago when everything trended NW and stronger. It was exciting because someone ended up with big totals at the last minute. Now, the area the gets the jackpot ends up with a couple of inches. lol. I can’t wait for someone to be in an enhanced severe weather area this Spring only to end up with a 45 degree steady rain. lol

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For a little perspective for those further upstream of this pos.  This is how things have changed in the last 24hrs.  Who knows what the difference will be between tonight and tomorrow night at this rate.

Last night at this time we were looking at this fresh off the press from the 3km NAM.  

11.png

 

24hrs later, this is what it shows from the same ending period of 12z Wed.  

22.jpg

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Well with any luck, maybe the bleeding has stopped locally.  I mean, onset is just hours away now.

Does look like my call is going to be a few inches too high.  I think 4-6" is a reasonable range.  6" being if some better banding/lehs comes through. 

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Just now, MIstorm97 said:

Euro shifted east, but it’s not *too* dramatic. Nothing like the UKMET at least. 

4C4D78CA-3493-48A8-AEBA-135ADC4EC3CD.png

Maybe the hemorrhaging has slowed and the clock can run out.

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25 minutes ago, roardog said:

I liked it better about 12 or 13 years ago when everything trended NW and stronger. It was exciting because someone ended up with big totals at the last minute. Now, the area the gets the jackpot ends up with a couple of inches. lol. I can’t wait for someone to be in an enhanced severe weather area this Spring only to end up with a 45 degree steady rain. lol

We went through a period when you could almost take the northwest trend to the bank.  Now it's like a complete 180.

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1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said:

Nope! Need more bleeding! The O.V. still gets shafted..me by 20 miles!  :weep:

Drive to see the snow. 

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Have a feeling this will end up being a sloppy mess for nearly everyone involved (not everyone). Models struggling with track and amounts - that tells me that it’s going to be a low end - long duration event with many times where it isn’t snowing and instead is melting... wouldn’t hold fire to it. 
 

2-4” looks solid around here with the majority falling between 9pm Tuesday night through about 1pm Wednesday. 
 

What. A. Mess. 

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Hopefully this is where the bleeding stops. Detroit would be set up for another 6"+ event. GRR is going to need to trim the NW portions of its WSW for sure.

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6z runs nudged east again.  Best snow, shockingly, now even east of Toronto on the GFS and RGEM for eg.  I'm still betting on a last-minute slight westward correction, which I thought was going to hurt us with mixing, but now may actually help us.

I'll revise my previous bittercasting "final" call with 4-8".

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38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2008 everything, and I mean EVERYTHING,  trended nw

"NW trend" was a big thing from the late 90s to about then.  As I recall, it was frequently mentioned in AFDs by mets, so it's not just some weenie thing. 

 

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Woke up under a Winter Storm Watch when 24 hours ago it still seemed very likely that this would be a non-event locally. This hobby, man...

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