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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We got down to 38 and are already up to 45. I'm not going to sugarcoat it, that's not a good place to be with precip set to move in in the next 3 hours. Good news is DP's have FINALLY tanked into the 20's. That was a painful fall but they are crashing with the NE wind. I'm not model watching anymore they will bounce around with their clown maps until the very end but temp wise, we are running a couple degrees above where the globals (and NAM) had us yesterday and are in line with the HRRR. I did not think we'd exceed 41-42 today. Radar looks very NAM-like which is good but I am worried about folks west of the influence of the coastal. West of the Triangle may have more precip issues than we thought as even the NAM has trended more to the globals on that western cutoff. Radar watching will be the only way to confirm that. I would hit the panic button if precip is not gaining more of a WSW to ENE movement and pushing up into the Triad area by lunchtime. I like my forecast from yesterday and am sticking to it. I think RDU is a lock for 2-3 in and the coastal plain looks to be good for 4+ in. If we had better temps (as always) I think Max snow potential would be doubled at least but I know we will waste at least 0.25" here on wetbulbing and white rain. CLT-Upstate, I still don't think anyone outside of elevation will see any accumulation. Just not those areas' storm, unfortunately.

Thanks, I agree.  I'm remembering the over-running orientation from the December 2018 big storm.  Definitely had a WSW to ENE movement.  Our air is super dry here now.

Maybe I'll storm chase to Rocky Mount or Greenville :weenie:

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Going on surface obs and radar extreme Northern Alabama is going to get accumulations over the next 2 hours. Surface has dropped to 33/34 there and continuing to go down and the rain/snow line has pushed south of them.

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Here’s why I and other mets aren’t trusting the HRRR;4f833c465a54b395a8f823b04d8729ab.jpg this is a pretty unrealistic profile for an overcast day; with a super adiabatic lapse rate at the surface this is a sounding you’d usually get if it were sunny! Sometimes even short term models struggle with the boundary layer and potential solar radiation.

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FWIW, the new run of WRAL futurecast model is now showing 2-3 inches for most of the triangle.  This is in line with the NAM.  Their futurecast is usually pretty conservative so I think that's a good sign.

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Going on surface obs and radar extreme Northern Alabama is going to get accumulations over the next 2 hours. Surface has dropped to 33/34 there and continuing to go down and the rain/snow line has pushed south of them.

Just need rates to make it go boom.

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22 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Going on surface obs and radar extreme Northern Alabama is going to get accumulations over the next 2 hours. Surface has dropped to 33/34 there and continuing to go down and the rain/snow line has pushed south of them.

Where are you getting that? Huntsville and Florence are reading 39 each with Heavy Rain

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Dewpoints crashing in the Triangle?  Would have thought influx of moisture would bring them up. We changeover to -sn more quickly then?

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The HRRR is making a case for more snow around Fayetteville.  On the current analysis you can see the rain has really help to cool the column a lot faster in Central/SE NC. 

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58 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Here’s why I and other mets aren’t trusting the HRRR;4f833c465a54b395a8f823b04d8729ab.jpg this is a pretty unrealistic profile for an overcast day; with a super adiabatic lapse rate at the surface this is a sounding you’d usually get if it were sunny! Sometimes even short term models struggle with the boundary layer and potential solar radiation.

hrrr is busting temp wise here...as expected. 37 degree temps extend back to atlanta where all night the hrrr had temps of 42 to 44 degrees right now. Using hrrr where precip is falling...especially with any respectable dewpoint depressions...is a waste of time. 

As for the rdu area, i wouldn't worry too much about those 40s. There is more than enough cold/dry air just off the surface to allow a fast temp drop once the steady precip arrives. wetbulb zero heights as low as 985mb on the 12z nam is easily low enough to produce a rapid temp drop. 

7 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected.  Downslope screw zone here.

Yep...The biggest concern i have for the upstate/western nc is just overall lack of precip...especially into nc.  Virtually every model is showing a decrease in the amounts there..generally less than a half inch...even for the upstate and obviously some of that is going to be needed to cool the surface. 

One thing i'm going to be watching out for though is the southern upstate later this afternoon/evening. wrf suite and nam/3km are all paining a swath of snow from greenwood northeast..as an area of precip lingers behind long enough to catch up to the caa aloft.  Would be ironic to say the least if they somehow manage to do better than the upstate. 

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The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet

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Winter storm warnings up for us. Our 1st in 2 years. 2-4" expected but we will see. Temp and dew points have been dropping steady the last 2 hours.

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Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected.  Downslope screw zone here.


The thing is, I feel like his post relies heavily on the precip type falling right now and he assumes it is rain. It has been sleet from the start here in the northern Upstate.


.

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of course I'm on vacation in Cancun and I'm following the weather anyway.  Crazy I know.  I live in Ramseur and still wanting snow when I'm not even there.

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15 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected.  Downslope screw zone here.

It's interesting to see the models hold back on totals, yet show an intense band of snow for the afternoon hours in the Lee of the Apps. Something doesn't add up. 

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Just now, Tigerchick224 said:

 


The thing is, I feel like his post relies heavily on the precip type falling right now and he assumes it is rain. It has been sleet from the start here in the northern Upstate.


.

 

Where in upstate?  All rain here despite cold 850s and 925s.

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Just now, tazaroo said:

of course I'm on vacation in Cancun and I'm following the weather anyway.  Crazy I know.  I live in Ramseur and still wanting snow when I'm not even there.

Go get a tan and fruity drink.  This will all be a memory by tomorrow morning.

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Where in upstate?  All rain here despite cold 850s and 925s.


Blue Ridge/TR. Not quite north enough to be the mountains, but not Greenville either. I hope you guys will get something soon! It’s crazy how the 850s haven’t present as much of a problem and now it’s a precipitation amount thing. Ahhhh to live east of the mountains.


.

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15z HRRR has it snowing in Hampton Roads by 20-21z. That'd be a good development. It does bring a nice area of moderate rain through before that so that's probably what it's going to take to start wet-bulbing. We'll see if that holds through the afternoon. 

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44/28 at home. DP's come down from 36 this morning. Hoping DP's keep falling before the precip moves in. Need all the wetbulbing we can muster. NE wind has gotten gusty. Smells like snow even if it doesn't feel like it yet haha. 

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