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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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14 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

There is a CAD element involved for the upstate and NC. Without the CAD our boundary layer conditions would be horrible.  With the cad we have a nice punch of sub-freezing air at 925mb, allowing snow to reach the ground as long as the mid-level warm nose doesn't mess things up.

So, I assume that is why us in N GA aren't expecting much of anything. Horrible boundary layer without CAD, just relying on cold from the NW (which is a death wish down here, cold chasing moisture).

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If the RAP and HRRR are to be believed. Precip does not arrive in the Upstate until around noon tomorrow.  With most of the qpf falling from 1pm-3pm. 

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1 minute ago, ATLMet84 said:

So, I assume that is why us in N GA aren't expecting much of anything. Horrible boundary layer without CAD, just relying on cold from the NW.

Well there's several things working against N GA. 

For one, the 800mb temperature gradient is laid out East to West, which cuts off Georgia's chances at snow before lunch other than the top row of counties.

Also the precip moves through Georgia earlier... before the 800mb temperature gradient begins to sag south much.

Secondly, the CAD didn't have time to drive much cold/dry air at the 900-950mb level in to Georgia before the storm hits. These layers improve as you go east in to SC/NC,(and later arrival of precip helps).

 

This isn't to say that Northeastern Georgia is out of the running for accumulations, Especially if you have some elevation in the NE Ga mountains. They are actually in a pretty good spot, imo.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The 21z RAP was not kind to the NC foothills. This is through 7am Friday. 

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 5.24.24 PM.png

I think it’s a little far out to be using the RAP, TBH, but maybe I’m wrong.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Well there's several things working against N GA. 

For one, the 800mb temperature gradient is laid out East to West, which cuts off Georgia's chances at snow before lunch other than the top row of counties.

Also the precip moves through Georgia earlier... before the 800mb temperature gradient begins to sag south much.

Secondly, the CAD didn't have time to drive much cold/dry air at the 900-950mb level in to Georgia before the storm hits. These layers improve as you go east in to SC/NC,(and later arrival of precip helps).

 

This isn't to say that Northeastern Georgia is out of the running for accumulations, Especially if you have some elevation in the NE Ga mountains. They are actually in a pretty good spot, imo.

 

 

Well, I know that SnowDawg in Rabun County at 2400' stands the best chance of anyone from GA on these boards. Maybe he will get another covering of snow.

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12 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The 21z RAP was not kind to the NC foothills. This is through 7am Friday. 

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 5.24.24 PM.png

Lived in the foothills my entire life and I’ve never seen an overrunning setup skimp on the foothills - but I’ve seen plenty of models say it would. Not discounting the guidance, but there hasn’t been a single simulated radar that doesn’t show heavy banding impacting at least half of the foothill counties. 

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2 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said:

Well, I know that SnowDawg in Rabun County at 2400' stands the best chance of anyone from GA on these boards. Maybe he will get another covering of snow.

That's the hope. Mid level warm noses scare me though because they are rarely modeled very well. I've had plenty a disappointing heavy sleet storms before. HRRR and WRF giving me hope though pushing that rain snow line south pretty fast tomorrow morning. 

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22 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

21z RAP just came out and it's all snow for the northern upstate,(assuming low levels aren't as warm as depicted.)

In fact, it's not even isothermal at my house. I've got a -1C buffer through the column.

 

 

 

How is rap with 850s?

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3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

That's the hope. Mid level warm noses scare me though because they are rarely modeled very well. I've had plenty a disappointing heavy sleet storms before. HRRR and WRF giving me hope though pushing that rain snow line south pretty fast tomorrow morning. 

I'll take your sleet and leave you with the snow lol. Just give me something besides rain lol. Even if it doesn't accumulate, I'd rather see sleet bouncing everywhere and melting than just stupid rain.

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ABC11 (WTVD) says the southern part of central NC is the wildcard depending on how fast it changes over from rain/mix to snow.  The comment was that it could be a bit more accumulation than shown because the timing in that area is hard to nail down and will have plenty of moisture on hand.

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

A bump northwest with the precip on the 18z GFS....this is what models typically do close to go time with Miller A's - increase the precip on the NW side

oGvJeTL.gif

That's much better.  Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down.  The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

That's much better.  Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down.  The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think.

Been wondering where the hell you’ve been 

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

Been wondering where the hell you’ve been 

hangin out with the weenies

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Before we get into too much now casting and we get into the observation part of this storm, I want to thank everyone for making this a truly fun and educational track. 

After a really tough winter, this storm and its thread have reminded me why I came into this community in the first place. It’s always great to go through the ups and downs with you all, even more so after starting my first thread!

To the mets and experts, thank you for being clear, patient, and generous with your knowledge. It’s intentional, thoughtful, and informative.

To the mods, thanks for keeping this board a positive place for all to enjoy and learn.

To the Macks of the world (you all know who you are), thanks for keeping things light and fun!

And to everyone, may your snow totals resemble clown maps and may the warm noses stay to your south.

As always, there will be lessons to learn when it’s all over, but wishing everyone the best! You all make this community special, and I’m grateful for it.

(Mods, I apologize, I know this should be in banter!)

 

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I've been impressed with how consistent the NAM has been with modeled precip.  Even during the big storm in Dec 18, it had various runs where it was splotchy here and there with the QPF output....not this time.  I'd expect the radar to look good and consistent tomorrow.

ZboQGx7.gif

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We need some of the lower dew points to keep filtering down into central NC. DPs still in 30s Raleigh and south, but 20s to even single digit DPs off to the NW of there. That is the critical piece I will be watching to get an idea of how well the cold air is working in. Obviously not too far to our NW

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Big shift south with the R/S line on the latest Hrrr... caveat, above this line isn't snow if your low level temps are too warm for it to reach the ground. Also it's even slower with precip arrival. Valid 10am tomorrow morning

Sounding is for Clemson, SC at 10am.

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 6.25.21 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 6.26.25 PM.png

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Most clear skies here.. just a handful of high cirrus clouds

Yep.  Dropped from 52 to 48 here in Cherryville since 430 PM, mostly clear now, and stiff NE wind.  

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Yep.  Dropped from 52 to 48 here in Cherryville since 430 PM, mostly clear now, and stiff NE wind.  

Yes. That NE wind has been strong this afternoon over in Rutherfordton.

I’m at 49/31

 

 

I started an obs thread!

 

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13 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

We need some of the lower dew points to keep filtering down into central NC. DPs still in 30s Raleigh and south, but 20s to even single digit DPs off to the NW of there. That is the critical piece I will be watching to get an idea of how well the cold air is working in. Obviously not too far to our NW

Good observation. Hickory has a DP of 22 while KCLT has a DP of 34 as of an hour ago. Hope to see that DP drop some more before the precip starts flowing in tomorrow morning.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

The teleconnections don't look good for this storm let me tell ya

pm1bSvg.png

doXPSDv.png

We live in the South East.

I have always believed that more than half of our snow storms are usually thread the needle events.

The teleconnections do matter but it snows in bad patterns,

This last decade proves as much.

BTW Grit Thank you for all ur valuable input on this board.

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33 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Been wondering where the hell you’ve been 

I posted earlier. :) I honestly wasn't too keen on this one until yesterday.  Been some kind of a boring winter so far.  Maybe this turns the tide.  LR stuff is dropping in the cold to end the season, so maybe we get another shot.

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13 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said:

Good observation. Hickory has a DP of 22 while KCLT has a DP of 34 as of an hour ago. Hope to see that DP drop some more before the precip starts flowing in tomorrow morning.

It will be interesting to watch those actual dew points in comparison to where the NAM says they would be.  They look to be ahead of schedule and lower than predicted off to the NW.  Mt Airy shows a dew point of 11 as of last report on NWS

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2nd report from TX, I can tell you this is an over performer down here.  It has rained like cats and dogs all day.  QPF will NOT be the issue back home tomorrow unless we see convection fire up to the south.  I think someone mentioned that possibility earlier in the thread.  If you guys find the cold, I'm sending the liquid your way.:snowing:

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I've been impressed with how consistent the NAM has been with modeled precip.  Even during the big storm in Dec 18, it had various runs where it was splotchy here and there with the QPF output....not this time.  I'd expect the radar to look good and consistent tomorrow.
ZboQGx7.gif&key=f4eee56d8afe36526576a6e22d6d80eb9f564242e89c5b4304fbd750a296c284

It hasn’t budged, a really remarkable performance that should be seared into the mind of any met going forward.
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