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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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26 minutes ago, ThePackBacker said:

I came back to American for this call...a dusting to 2"!  Where's ColdRain...can he not bring the smack down on this. :-)

This setup is a little different than most with the southsinking/progressive HP.

Ha, yeah the south sinking cold air right as the precip maximizes is indeed unusual

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8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

Agreed. I have a theory they're just leaning conservative, and will likely upgrade to WSW's in the NE part later tonight or early AM tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

 

5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. 

That's a bit concerning.  The snow finally breaks out over far NE NC.  

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Just now, burrel2 said:

Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though.

Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don't know what their Warning criteria is but the text in the watch area sounds like they are expecting 2-3 in of snow which is in line with the WWA for the Raleigh forecast area

Not sure how up to date this is, but here is AKQs warning criteria: https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/criteria.pdf

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. 

That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. 

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Just now, ST21 said:

That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. 

Yep. My concern with this system is whether or not the mid/upper levels cool in time and stay that way. Surface temps in the mid/upper 30s is fine for wet snow but the upper levels have to cooperate. 

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9 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Not sure how up to date this is, but here is AKQs warning criteria: https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/criteria.pdf

Thanks, looks like RAH's and AKQs are the same criteria.

Interestingly, the current watch areas are not currently forecasted w/greater amounts, although I think we can agree the potential is greater. I wonder if that has something to do with it or just different office preferences. Probably overthinking it..

Now I wanna see what MHX does. :D

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