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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. Originally the 5th-8th was supposed to be cold. Now it’s just another round of a meh airmass that we hope is cold enough. Now we kick the can to after the 9th with the epo. For whatever reason we continue to kick the can in that area. 

Unfortunately those are all the signs of a Ratter.  Keep kicking it out...until it's over and never materializes.   This has that feeling.   Like Ginxy said...maybe we get a nice Mid Feb-Mid March?  Sure Hope so.  But I'm skeptical at the moment. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one expected or called for an entire loss of Dec 20- Feb 10. The heart of winter with basically one snowfall for the SNE region as a whole. As you know by latter Feb and Morch it’s different and not really the same winter feel even if it snows . It’s spring sun and melting. There is no sugar coating a terrible winter forecast by everyone. Every single one has been atrocious 

Meh... I've received over 15" since Dec 20.  Not great, but better than some years.    I could still hit 50" this weekend if things work out (need less than 0.5").    

I still think 20-25" between now and April is possible.  Not the way I want to run a winter fo' sho'

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Gotcha....makes much more sense now. 

There is a part of me which just doesn't like analogs...not sure if it's b/c perhaps they're misused or misunderstood but you see it alot too with severe wx setups...people will go nuts b/c you have all these historic analogs popping up for an event and expect the current setup to produce similar results...and I think this goes for any type of weather event. 

People shouldn't expect the same snowstorms in a larger scale pattern analog....all it does it show that there's potential. When you have a mixed bag of snow vs dud results in a set of analogs, then it is a sign that there's a lot of uncertainty and you hope it works out but don;t set expectations too high. Back in 2015, the analogs were absolutely loaded with excellent cold/snow patterns so there was a lot more confidence in something popping....ditto in late January 2013....we saw all kinds of good analogs showing up that were the overwhelming majority. So confidence was high that we'd have a chance in that pattern...several people melted when the first 10-12 days didn't produce (including a cutter....lol), but then we finally popped one on Feb 8-9.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Unfortunately those are all the signs of a Ratter.  Keep kicking it out...until it's over and never materializes.   This has that feeling.   Like Ginxy said...maybe we get a nice Mid Feb-Mid March?  Sure Hope so.  But I'm skeptical at the moment. 

Just need to wait and see how things look at the end of next week. As @CoastalWx said yesterday in the medium range, ensembles will smooth things out. So you won’t see how bad the flaws will be. (Ex: Se ridge -epo position) 

 

The GEFS wants to position the pv better after the 15th . Which might allow for better cold shots in the east. Then hopefully some help from the mjo as it gets into p6/7. For a -nao chance we need the TPV out of Greenland.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We will have our chances but we need to buckle the flow to our NE...otherwise, it’s these turd events again and again.

Honestly, the last SWFE that we had, 3-4 inches of snow that stuck around for 5 or so days, kids had some fun playing in it. I think we had lows in the single digits twice in that stretch. It definitely looked and felt like winter for that stretch, but it wasn't 1-2 feet of fun. But it also wasn't what the Mid Atlantic has been dealing with the past few winters, so maybe the glass half full look?

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I don’t believe anyone other than maybe Ray was believing the 6 weeks in middle of winter would blow and if they did they had no confidence in a back end winter “again” and thus would have Been calling for a high chance of below normal snow 

that being said , I’ll take my approximately 40” over last winters bi-weekly rains 

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My second window for major winter storm potential is 2/17 to 3/2, which I had envisioned as a potential phase change event into a more favorable NAO regime back in November. I think that still has a shot.

I think that event is where the mid Atlantic may receive the bulk of their seasonal alottment.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t believe anyone other than maybe Ray was believing the 6 weeks in middle of winter would blow and if they did they had no confidence in a back end winter “again” and thus would have Been calling for a high chance of below normal snow 

that being said , I’ll take my approximately 40” over last winters bi-weekly rains 

Yea, my effort wasn't perfect, but its been one of the best IMHO. We'll see how it goes from here....

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Part of that bias has come from the EPO region. Models have been too happy to torch AK only to back off, hence the bias. 

And I wonder if this is taking place in the GEFs cluster again ... 

They were ending winter just yesterday, now... show hope - what next

Not sure, but this strikes me as the same old two-step reversals that's maddeningly been taking place at all scales and dimensions, all season long.  What mean by that is, we have like four days worth of cycles hitting at an event and suddenly poof.  Gone.   Which, four days worth of cycles is 24 run times... That's a strong argument for good continuity; yet, it hasn't mattered this year. 

And it is not just the operational runs doing this.  The entire weight of ensemble means have been screwing the pooch with unusually weighty continuity - gone... 

Just f'n happen man. What is actually sequencing off the coast over the next 72 hours is pretty much completely irrelevant to mid range complexion from earlier in the week.  Some may argue through detail spinning, that is not the case...but nah... This is coherently a very bad year for modeling at all time ranges, and chunks there in/ save for short range!     

We forget that ( not you per se...just in general) to look for where the runs are okay.. They're still doing their jobs reasonably well ..at times very much so at < say 84 hours...maybe even 96.  It seems to be performance issue mostly in the mid range + ...  Which unfortunately is including the teleconnectors.  This latter aspect is really a head scratcher because that rattles confidences when needing to establish 'correction vectors' ..blah blah.  But the mid range thing is really us being spoiled. The best Mid range modeling year ever was 1995-1996 ;) 

So anyway, last night the GEFs come in with WPO slipping negative - I think that is the first time the west Pacific looked AB'ish in that particular guidance at ESRL, this year. And, the EPO is negative too.   

Yesterday?  Neither showed that... So, based on continuity break, and the seasonal trends/observations above.... can't be trusted.  Also, the MJO is trying to wrap back around and emerge on the sore-butt side of the Wheeler, which is out of sync/destructive interference wrt to WPO and EPO slipping neggative.  So, they would conflict with one another...and the rhea wheel spins around...  

I just think this is our winter... I do. It's a storm of indecision .. played out by maddening hints for hope and salvation, only to have the "emergence behavior" always fractal negative for organization centered around more classic intents and desires ( so to speak...).  

No one asked this, but I mused near over the summer of 2015 how that previous winter, with it 350% above seasonal snow totals it brought to some, but was generally 150 pervasively for SNE ... would mean that have bad winters for the next five years would make our longer term numbers spot on.  Ho man how prophetic that account seems to be - sorry haha.  

My normal check out time is looming... Feb 10 ... That's when I don't care, but... am willing to check back in if a storm punches thru GW/CC and occurs against increasingly off-set odds because of the former abbreviations.  

By the way, I count five S/W getting absorbed by absolutely astounding wind velocities over mid latitudes and south, over the next 12 days of modeling, and that is the HC whether the cackling rabble understands why or not. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My normal check out time is looming... Feb 10 ... That's when I don't care, but... am willing to check back in if a storm punches thru GW/CC and occurs against increasingly off-set odds because of the former abbreviations.  

Why Feb 10, specifically? That strikes me as still maybe a week or two early to consider winter's back broken.

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1 minute ago, Heat Miser said:

Why Feb 10, specifically? That strikes me as still maybe a week or two early to consider winter's back broken.

That’s when the sun angle gets just high enough so he can enter his car on a sunny afternoon and feel a fondle of warmth 

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