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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

@Eskimo Joe kindly requests an EF-5 embedded within the eyewall of a Cat 5 hurricane rolling just west of Potomac, followed by it going extra-tropical, pulling down an Arctic airmass and dumping 2 inches of ice to be followed up immediately by a paste bomb or blizzard. 

This would be called the Eskimo Joe Covidcane 2020 storm.. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea I'll base my interest for the rest of the day on that. I don't know why we don't have more special RAOBs.

Especially shocking when your CWA covers a major population area that is the nation's capital. I'd assume it's a funding thing? Wonder what the cost is to release each sonde. 18z sounding ought to be routine on ENH days or higher within the outlined area. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

i hope you do get something, friend! of course i always want severe IMBY, but i like when others get it too.

I know.  I'm just teasing.  We all want non damaging to our houses EF-2s right next to us or gusty non damaging, no loss of power storms.  Its how we roll.  But never get mad when a good friend gets the good stuff.  More fun now cause we post pics of stuff for others to see and enjoy.

 

That said, GIMME ALL THE ENH!!!!

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Just now, H2O said:

I know.  I'm just teasing.  We all want non damaging to our houses EF-2s right next to us or gusty non damaging, no loss of power storms.  Its how we roll.  But never get mad when a good friend gets the good stuff.  More fun now cause we post pics of stuff for others to see and enjoy.

 

That said, GIMME ALL THE ENH!!!!

you can have the storms, ill take the snow

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

you can have the storms, ill take the snow

i got nothing.  i rather have the snow too

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31 minutes ago, mappy said:

any more "mappyland" thoughts? 

      I think you're in as good of a location as any.    I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued).    The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat.

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I think you're in as good of a location as any.    I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued).    The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat.

thank you!! 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Kind of surprised no MCD yet from SPC

 

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Surprised no meso discussion yet. Guess they will wait to include sounding in it. 

Might have a watch box drawn up and once the 18z RAOB gets finished they push it out.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Might have a watch box drawn up and once the 18z RAOB gets finished they push it out.

can you post the RAOB sounding when its released?

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Just now, mappy said:

can you post the RAOB sounding when its released?

The only place i can ever find them is on SPC site and it takes like 4 hours for it to show up there.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The only place i can ever find them is on SPC site and it takes like 4 hours for it to show up there.

Univ of Wyoming has a site but it's not pretty like the SPC soundings. 

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I agree with High Risk that we're probably getting a red box. Latest SPC mesoanalysis is a favorable environment for a couple of tornadoes, but to me the bigger threat is straight line winds.

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It feels like we are all expecting things to have fired up by now but the RAP on the meso page keeps saying 6pm is go time.  thats like 4 hours away.  240 min.  14,400 seconds

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It's a bit more encouraging to see plqces like MRB, FDK, and MDW getting into the upper 80s. That might put places like mappyland in play.

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17hrrr has a legit supercell in Fairfax to DCA this evening and another running along I70 into Wilmington, de.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a bit more encouraging to see plqces like MRB, FDK, and MDW getting into the upper 80s. That might put places like mappyland in play.

82/74 here, with cloudy skies as a light shower passes to my north, FWIW

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Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there.

HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh.

Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming...

Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort.

Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn.

High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.

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9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there.

HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh.

Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming...

Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort.

Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn.

High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.

you just made a bunch of weenies hearts flutter. ;) 

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5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

A boundary cooking all day makes my heart wish I'm there. Terrain? I'm used to it in East Tenn.

Thanks for stopping in to share your thoughts.  

The terrain is manageable.  The traffic is the big challenge around here.

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