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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You do well on that map.  Dr No is just f-ing with is...he is bored with this pattern too.  He laughing right now calling me a dick turd for getting sucked in. Oh how he mocks me

Dr. No selling woof tickets

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

EPS not on board is why no one is excited. OP is probably out to lunch.

Depending on location it is onboard. 

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, it looks good for you...i need a little help, but it wouldn't take much

I don’t trust this at all, not for one second. It’s gonna take multiple runs on multiple models before I’m even thinking about it.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t trust this at all, not for one second. It’s gonna take multiple runs on multiple models before I’m even thinking about it.

Yeah, honestly I think it's just a wonky run.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, honestly I think it's just a wonky run.

Honestly it’s been spitting out some wonky looks since yesterday. It’s almost behaving like a springtime cutoff low. It just meanders around for about a day and then just says eff it, I’m shooting east.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is it even remotely close? I question even that.

Euro is deadly accurate when it doesn’t show snow though.  

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Now I have a couple of questions: Now, Ji mentioned the Jan 2011 storm...now I remember that one went from rain to snow. Now why is it that rain-to-snow scenarios don't happen as often around here as the opposite? And also...was 2011 a case of a storm making it's own cold air?

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28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Ji open a thread!!!

9F3CA4DD-1904-417E-9D56-B377F5C4B2CF.png

Good news is that a few minor shifts here and there puts the entire DMV in the purples and pinks. :snowing:

 

ETA: We know exactly how that should work out. :raining:

 

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Now,,,,  IF we can get through about 20 runs and all the models show a similar setup, then I'll get excited.  Until then, one run of one suite with so many things that CAN go wrong.  Sigh...   

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Hi res Euro is a Winchester beatdown:

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

 

Winchester is the winter king of VA.  It’s the city all other cities wish to be.  But can’t. You live a charmed life my friend. Only people in Lucketts can battle you for supremacy 

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22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I have a couple of questions: Now, Ji mentioned the Jan 2011 storm...now I remember that one went from rain to snow. Now why is it that rain-to-snow scenarios don't happen as often around here as the opposite? And also...was 2011 a case of a storm making it's own cold air?

Usually, a rain to snow scenario involves a changing of direction in the winds, and when the winds shift to the NW, that will bring in the cold air but it also brings in dry air and shuts off the precip. A lot of our snow-to-rain scenarios involve an established cold air mass where the storm track doesn't necessarily matter, because the initial cold air is enough to overcome the initial push of warmer air. Eventually, the warm air wins out. This past weekend was like a very poor man's example of that, but had a bigger batch of precip and heavier precip been aimed in our direction, we could have done pretty well with that. Same thing can also happen with coastal systems if they are too close. We can begin as snow and then switch to sleet and even rain as the winds become too easterly/southeasterly.

IIRC, 2011 was a strong upper level low that did create its own cold air. Once we got on the back side of it, we switched over to heavy snow. I love that storm. Just wish it had lasted longer. It really crushed some areas northeast of us. Talk about a heavy thump though, especially of very heavy, wet snow.

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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's early, but I think the GFS won't be looking like the Euro.  If anything it's a little further north than its previous run.

The GFS is trying to play Dr. No this time, lol (but is it a little by itself with the transfer being further north?)

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The GFS is trying to play Dr. No this time, lol (but is it a little by itself with the transfer being further north?)

GFS will get in the right camp later

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16 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

GFS will get in the right camp later

Disagree....I bet the Euro jumps ship tonight. It's around that range now. And the fact there was zero support on the EPS is a no brainer where this is heading.

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3 hours ago, MD Snow said:

ICON, GGEM, EURO, UKMET and now the JMA all with the coastal idea. 

 

 

jma_T850_eus_8.png

Wouldn’t it be crazy if everyone checks out and we sneak one in?  

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Disagree....I bet the Euro jumps ship tonight. It's around that range now. And the fact there was zero support on the EPS is a no brainer where this is heading.

Ralph you called it, let's see

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Disagree....I bet the Euro jumps ship tonight. It's around that range now. And the fact there was zero support on the EPS is a no brainer where this is heading.

Hard to disagree with you. There was a couple members that looked similar to the OP but not many. There was support for snow further west  and north through western PA and western MD. 

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