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January 18th Event

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44 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Forgive my ignorance - where are people seeing the init with 1048? Is this the 18z init?

GFS initialized at 1046

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can you work some magic and get some precip to show up. 
 

Right now for me the euro is the wettest model. That’s never a good thing because it’s usually dry, and usually right.

Not sure I’m totally buying the banded structure of first overrunning precip. 
ti my eyes decent lift in the dead zone says it should squeeze something out 

image.thumb.png.903fcda0f8327fd13f8af31fafdee2e4.png

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Point and click forecast for me is 2-4” of snow/sleet and 0.1” ice. I’m excited. Hopefully we get some decent upslope snow showers since I’ll flip to rain eventually for a bit late Saturday afternoon and evening before the hammer drops around midnight Saturday into Sunday. 

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13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Point and click forecast for me is 2-4” of snow/sleet and 0.1” ice. I’m excited. Hopefully we get some decent upslope snow showers since I’ll flip to rain eventually for a bit late Saturday afternoon and evening before the hammer drops around midnight Saturday into Sunday. 

We need more of a thump to hit us while it's still frigid up top and at the surface so that we can get a few fresh inches for the slopes saturday morning before it flips. Hopefully by the time it flips it will be early afternoon and time to head inside for some relaxing and a few libations, and then we can head back out Sunday morning to a little more fresh powder!

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39 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

We need more of a thump to hit us while it's still frigid up top and at the surface so that we can get a few fresh inches for the slopes saturday morning before it flips. Hopefully by the time it flips it will be early afternoon and time to head inside for some relaxing and a few libations, and then we can head back out Sunday morning to a little more fresh powder!

Yup, at least it’s interesting winter weather! Will be on the slopes tonight, tomorrow morning, and Sunday. My guess is we are already sleeting by 7a tomorrow. Freezing rain late morning. And plain rain by 3pm. 
 

LWX just posted WWA for everyone west of 95. Pitt hasn’t posted for the mountains yet but should be as part of the afternoon package. 

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1048 HP per 12z initializations. Roar. 

Feeling good about 2-3” before the changeover N&W of the big cities. Especially up here. Still think we get dryslotted before we see much rain. Seen this song and dance before. 

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10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Today’s forecast of low 40s for a high is not working here, currently 37.

It was supposed to be 40s today? Lol I'm lower as well: currently sitting at 34.

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Sitting at 37/12 in Montclair.  If we aren’t getting to 40 i doubt anyone els in the DMV is outside of DCA (probably around 70 there lol)

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I think NWS had in their package late yesterday that low 40s was to be high for today and Saturday. If I’m wrong then apology 

at prime heating hour DC area averages 37 currently, dews  at 11, a skull crushing baro of 30.70 and brisk  northwest winds. That’s a lot of favorable conditions for an event 12 hours away. So whatever might switch that would have to be a strong surge of mild and strong  surges produce good results.

i still think we snow sleet and freezing rain and then taper to drizzle with no steady snow eroding rain 

 

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It was supposed to be 40s today? Lol I'm lower as well: currently sitting at 34.

No models I've have seen had  even the cities out of the mid 30s today .

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Some poked fun at Ava's 2-4" but maybe not a bad call .

i know ;) 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Y’all can stop worrying about temps.

For you out there, sure.  But again, people closer to I-95 are allowed to fret all they want.

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Fantastic agreement among the hi-res models for the initial band of snow at some point during the 7-10am or so time frame (earlier for those further west) followed by a break for a few hours before the main batch of precip arrives with snow changing to sleet to (maybe a period of freezing rain) to rain through the mid/late afternoon hours (with the temps taking extra time to crack the freezing mark north of I-70).

I still believe that the morning snow band is going to cause a lot of road problems with the temps in the 20s.

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9 minutes ago, H2O said:

For you out there, sure.  But again, people closer to I-95 are allowed to fret all they want.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think it will be a problem there, DC north. Gonna be evaporational cooling to go along with a stout cad setup. I could be wrong, but think precip is the real worry.

Now if it’s afternoon before any meaningful precip makes it, that’s another story.

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I don’t think we get much good evap off of it, a degree or two only, as mildvsurge is stout. It’s just that  we are 25ish at the start.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I could be wrong, but I don’t think it will be a problem there, DC north. Gonna be evaporational cooling to go along with a stout cad setup. I could be wrong, but think precip is the real worry.

Now if it’s afternoon before any meaningful precip makes it, that’s another story.

Nope.  Its two-fold.  We need temps to be as low as can be because we will warm nose sooner.  Precip has to come in as early as possible before we flood with torching air.

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why do so many areas have a winter weather advisory for an inch of slush when there's no rush hour?

    because the snow falling tomorrow morning will fall at temperatures in the 20s which always causes problems

 

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why do so many areas have a winter weather advisory for an inch of slush when there's no rush hour?

Maybe they like reading our storm threads and figure if they post an advisory it will improve morale in the thread.

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