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January 18th Event

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nothing will top the Feb 07 sleetstorm that turned into a glacier. My friend was an xray tech and she worked two 18 hour days from slips and sled accidents. Lol

 

ICON is .5 qpf all frozen. I'm sure some is sleet. Models agree most of the area is below freezing for most of the precip. Mid 20s the night before will freeze the ground. Could be an interesting storm for not much snow

Yeah, I this point, I've given up on the snow angle.  I'm in for ice now.  Don't gotta drive in it for work anymore, powerlines are buried....sh*t, why not.  come on, at least 1/4 inch.  

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


I feel like we’ve been in this situation with the ICON before. Anyone know if it has a cold bias?

 

The difference this time is that it has support.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z NAM and ICON are almost identical with temps/qpf through 0z Sun. Temps aren't even iffy over a large area. That's not common with storms like this. Might be a red flag. Gfs is almost 10 degrees warmer but gfs is bad with CAD

I mean....that 1046 high sure lays down a deep cold layer base Friday and Friday night . Definitely far from a slouch . I bet they aren't far off from reality  . Just this past early December with a weak CAD signal NWS called for 40 and northern areas struggled to hit 33. 

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23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s hard to put much stock in the ICON but it gives Deep Creek over 1” of frozen QPF.  I’m just rooting for an interesting event knowing that it won’t be all snow.

Do you have a rough estimate of how much of that falls as snow vs other mixed/icy precip?

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2 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Do you have a rough estimate of how much of that falls as snow vs other mixed/icy precip?

No...very limited ICON info on TT so basically only know if its liquid or frozen.  

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Not much to go on with the ICON being such a new model. GFS is likely too warm. Given the strength and depth of that high   plus source region, likely to see temps on the colder side of guidance and hanging in longer. Temps not an issue. 

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Icing events are among the most difficult patterns to predict in the MA. Low 30s won’t cut it for optimal accretion. Ideal is less than 30F and rates come into play. Strength of the WAA and resilience of the CAD. I’ve never seen any model handle it perfectly in this area, not even the colder solutions. 

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

It’s hard to put much stock in the ICON but it gives Deep Creek over 1” of frozen QPF.  I’m just rooting for an interesting event knowing that it won’t be all snow.

Me 7 Springs Sun-Wed so gonna be fun.

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Euro laughs at our talk of ice (unless you’re well west) and gives us a light rainy chilly day

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36 minutes ago, mappy said:

Euro laughs at our talk of ice (unless you’re well west) and gives us a light rainy chilly day

True, but I live in west...Sw of Frederick.  WB EURO 0z. Note also there is nothing of consequence on the EURO snow or sleet maps.

6C7C9785-E853-421B-B134-167BCCA21FF9.png

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25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

True, but I live in west...Sw of Frederick.  WB EURO 0z. Note also there is nothing of consequence on the EURO snow or sleet maps.

6C7C9785-E853-421B-B134-167BCCA21FF9.png

Thanks I looked at the model run too. 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Latest NAM WB 12k winter precip maps.

Thanks for the maps.  With the mesos getting into range today/tomorrow, it’ll be interesting to see the trend in precip & temps.  6z GFS juiced up in western MD (now drops 0.4” of frozen QPF).  Hopefully that continues.

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The high res NAM is a bummer for folks around DC.  delays the precip long enough that the low levels warm.  It's out of its range but that is a scenario that I could see happening as I've seen it happen occasionally in the past. 

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6 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

The high res NAM is a bummer for folks around DC.  delays the precip long enough that the low levels warm.  It's out of its range but that is a scenario that I could see happening as I've seen it happen occasionally in the past. 

Temps aside, there’s just no precip on the 3k NAM. It’s a showery cold front passage.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Temps aside, there’s just no precip on the 3k NAM. It’s a showery cold front passage.

its barely that lol what a debacle 

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Different look to the NAM this morning. Less WAA, more frontal passage. Right in tune with the way this winter has been going.

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12z ICON holds serve, tad colder with snow transitioning to freezing rain. CAD holds on until 03z Sunday. Significant icing. 

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34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Temps aside, there’s just no precip on the 3k NAM. It’s a showery cold front passage.

Exact phrase I threw out 2 days ago. Hate that it’s come to that. Not there yet though.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM is still not in trustworthy range.

But one can’t feel good about this thing right now.

ive been chasing a damn lakes cutter all week hoping it throws some WAA snow out ahead of it. I'm going down with the ship. 

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Not sure of the icons track record with temps but gives most of the area over .50 qpf with temps below freezing. Northern and western tier stay in the 20's

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