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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, but they are kind of inferior.  :scooter:

Just saying.  If I had to bet on whether the Euro would shift north or south of the 12z on future runs, I'd probably lean south.  I'll admit some seasonal bias could be affecting my thoughts as well.

History tells us its usually rare for a storm to come back south again after all models shift NW simultaneously lol. But as mentioned before, there's still a lot of room for error. 

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Noticed a new Meteorologist (or new to me) on NBC 5 in Chicago during the 11 am newscast did a good job today of saying "anything was possible" but good chance of some type of significant precip in the Chicago area this weekend. 

Waiting for the media hype machine to pick up on this tonight. 

I just want 3 inches of snow to go sledding with my daughter. That is it. Simple ask of the weather gods.

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11 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

There is our system. Hard to believe we won't see some waffling as models aren't going to handle some low amp streamer wave running through the GOM between tonight and tomorrow all that well. I know some in here love the hail mary day 6 calls but.....

wave1.png.3b2080d76e863482c6f977f48fe89a2a.png

That big “S” shape on H5 in the western PAC is the storm saying “Sucks to be you.” Or it could stand for “snow.” Either one is feasible.

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

History tells us its usually rare for a storm to come back south again after all models shift NW simultaneously lol. But as mentioned before, there's still a lot of room for error. 

Well and to be clear, I would count a somewhat modest shift from ORD to Gary as a south shift even though it wouldn't have a whole lot of sensible wx impact unless you are near one of the precip type transition zones.

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6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

History tells us its usually rare for a storm to come back south again after all models shift NW simultaneously lol. But as mentioned before, there's still a lot of room for error. 

false. last winter was notorious for south fades, and even the pre christmas Indy runner(couldn't resist) did just that model wise. And i believe the idolized Euro model did so. That said, every storm is different.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Well and to be clear, I would count a somewhat modest shift from ORD to Gary as a south shift even though it wouldn't have a whole lot of sensible wx impact unless you are near one of the precip type transition zones.

That might make a difference in my area possibly. Shifting to more snow less ice maybe..or more likely dry slotted

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