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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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^

not yet. But it has all the earmarks to become that in a tough winter too date. The only thing that brings pause is I have seen alot of these trend south vs north the past couple seasons.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

^

not yet. But it has all the earmarks to become that in a tough winter too date. The only thing that brings pause is I have seen alot of these trend south vs north the past couple seasons.

I don't think the slp ever wraps up and develops a nice defo like you want to see from a cutter and the initial slug of WAA precip as the trough ejects is going to be rain here

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10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

I don't think the slp ever wraps up and develops a nice defo like you want to see from a cutter and the initial slug of WAA precip as the trough ejects is going to be rain here

The 6z Euro extrapolated certainly would be

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4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah i don't see how there is any way we avoid that, those early GFS ice runs were lol

 

On the bright side, I think it’ll be the coldest rain of the season. That means we’re trending in the right direction, right? :axe:

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12 minutes ago, mimillman said:

On the bright side, I think it’ll be the coldest rain of the season. That means we’re trending in the right direction, right? :axe:

i'll take a persistent western monster trough and open gulf and roll the dice with the rainers

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If this storm ends up being a rainer, nothing can save this winter. I'd punt it. That's just ridiculous. 

The pattern really isn’t all that great, so it wouldn’t be surprising.


.
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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The pattern really isn’t all that great, so it wouldn’t be surprising.


.

Once that trough out west moves further east, and it will eventually, it'll suppress every storm. So yeah, terrible pattern both ways. 

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13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The pattern really isn’t all that great, so it wouldn’t be surprising.


.

yeah, not sure why anyone would find this marginal setup failing as a sign of anything 

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19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i'll take a persistent western monster trough and open gulf and roll the dice with the rainers

In A/M/J, please. Not this crap in Dec/Jan then snow at the end of April again.

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3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

In A/M/J, please. Not this crap in Dec/Jan then snow at the end of April again.

You know it’s going to happen. Winter is only a Nov/Apr phenomenon now. 

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AGW strikes again

 

on the plus side, it's a fresh year and we can start chasing the wettest all time record again!

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Thinking the best way of describing this system is by transition. Wet stuff will fall, lots of it. How the cold transitions this rain to a wintery form of precip, here lies the unknown.

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Honestly thank God we have not had too much snow to this point, if you had a solid snowpack with this storm approaching the flooding would be near record levels, especially in Indiana and Ohio

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27 minutes ago, DAFF said:

Thinking the best way of describing this system is by transition. Wet stuff will fall, lots of it. How the cold transitions this rain to a wintery form of precip, here lies the unknown.

Exactly. This is the hostile pre-Jan 20 pattern. I expected chances thru Jan 20 but the cold will wait til late Jan into Feb. A rain ending as snow scenario would be ok i guess lol

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11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

If the 12z NAM were to be extrapolated, it would be rain for all of us. 

Once the NAM is within 84 hrs you can pretty much lock it in

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26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly. This is the hostile pre-Jan 20 pattern. I expected chances thru Jan 20 but the cold will wait til late Jan into Feb. A rain ending as snow scenario would be ok i guess lol

...which was preceeded by the hostile December pattern when talk of the New Year's  turn around was all the chatter amongst the weenie class.

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

...which was preceeded by the hostile December pattern when talk of the New Year's  turn around was all the chatter amongst the weenie class.

It's almost like 06-07 where 80% of that winter happened in February lol. 

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Exactly. This is the hostile pre-Jan 20 pattern. I expected chances thru Jan 20 but the cold will wait til late Jan into Feb. A rain ending as snow scenario would be ok i guess lol

Well I gotta tell ya, the mid-month and beyond pattern isn’t the new hotness.


.
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With the amount of moisture to work with and models QPF for central/southern IN, there will be some significant flooding. Cue JanetJanet

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Just now, Snowstorms said:

It's almost like 06-07 where 80% of that winter happened in February lol. 

Which depending on geography, wasn't necessarily saying much.   I still have nightmares of that Feb'07 storm...   12" of snow predicted the morning of = .3" of sleet by nightfall.  

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1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

With the amount of moisture to work with and models QPF for central/southern IN, there will be some significant flooding. Cue JanetJanet

Man, you guys do NOT need another wet winter into spring.   I still couldn't believe all the flooding driving back to Columbus from Marion after my daughter's graduation last May.   

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Which depending on geography, wasn't necessarily saying much.   I still have nightmares of that Feb'07 storm...   12" of snow predicted the morning of = .3" of sleet by nightfall.  

That winter was hot garbage outside of that one storm. 

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