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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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18z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble) 8500f283c22e61f63f774bc729902a46.jpg&key=750086e231286b3f5823b800be39fe285108d260d64817fcf21e3459f5131d99f1a07dafc19cbfcc1f55c1cbe2c6c4d1.jpg&key=bf1fe685ca41485e7b02376e01fc73d646bf10581a294626559cd176f7c5f202c71fb4a309f03138f879aee31caf2708.jpg&key=f2ace13404335ff319a5fc6f0dd87ffce38c1ce02e91da5258e84df2a3b420ac983e1f4db426508a53a964b500a80a07.jpg&key=f07240e624b0ea2ba2ad891d04c47c0e26cc74bd47826df5562f4cb847c150264d8b383f78f903843b58815b59e9d460.jpg&key=79f5b516fdceeb6e1f6071c59d49b0e0e86c8d6f6bea7f8dec4c2e4fd6096ed9

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Here are the member snow totals 3b8d96ebd33c2a6c872c8127a1359da2.jpg5bfc1bf83cd95a3295653ce8b25639a0.jpg

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Here are the member snow totals 3b8d96ebd33c2a6c872c8127a1359da2.jpg5bfc1bf83cd95a3295653ce8b25639a0.jpg

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Do you happen to have the operational by chance?

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4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Do you happen to have the operational by chance?

18z OP only goes to 90hrs.

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18z OP only goes to 90hrs.
Beat me to it. Here's the h5 look at the end of the run. a63a3b9882437ab359d2a57f076d58ac.jpg

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That is some nice ridging in the east/southeast.  I am uncommitted for now like Chi Storm but do feel like this has a real chance of ending up farther north.  

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That is some nice ridging in the east/southeast.  I am uncommitted for now like Chi Storm but do feel like this has a real chance of ending up farther north.  

There's also a strong HP that undercuts the departing LP in Northern Ontario. If the southern stream slows down a bit, we can gain some help from it. 

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1 hour ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

https://www.weather.gov/lot/21Nov2015snowfall

This was the last time I was in a 6"+ storm. I was royally screwed in November 2018 when I left for Champaign one day before that storm since classes were starting. I've seen warning-level accums miss to the north, south, east, and west.

In general though winters at 40 degrees north in the Midwest just [email protected]$%#ing suck. IMO, it's the worst climate in all of North America. 30s-40s and rain for four months of the year but you still get blasted with Arctic air and maybe a 1-3" clipper if you're lucky before it melts away a few days later.

I start work in a few weeks so I bet winter will blow its load as soon as I start commuting.

Beavis' doppelganger lol? The winter you describe sounds more like an average Kentucky winter than a Chicago winter. The midwest has some of the most changeable weather in north America. Edit - you must be south of Chicago if last 6"+ storm was 2015

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The initial low won't make it to the coast till tom night and the main event till Thurs night. So we likely won't have an accurate picture until Wed 00z and Thurs 12Z, respectively. Can't write it off just yet. 

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Beavis' doppelganger lol? The winter you describe sounds more like an average Kentucky winter than a Chicago winter. The midwest has some of the most changeable weather in north America. Edit - you must be south of Chicago if last 6"+ storm was 2015

We've nickel and dimed our way up to average the last few winters. No exceptional storms outside of some over performing clippers or overrunning events. We haven't had a phased storm in years. ChiTown's frustration is understandable. 

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17 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

There's also a strong HP that undercuts the departing LP in Northern Ontario. If the southern stream slows down a bit, we can gain some help from it. 

I think that is right up to a point, but if the southern stream wave slows down too much, it will give the confluence a chance to weaken, sort of like the 12z GEM.

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27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Beavis' doppelganger lol? The winter you describe sounds more like an average Kentucky winter than a Chicago winter. The midwest has some of the most changeable weather in north America. Edit - you must be south of Chicago if last 6"+ storm was 2015

I just graduated from UIUC in December - I've been in Champaign the past four winters except during the holidays when I would stay with my folks in the Chicago suburbs. I've had terrible luck, constantly being at the wrong place at the wrong time. :axe:

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If there was even a half decent antecedent airmass to work with this would be a huge event for most of the subforum. Unfortunately it’s just not there

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2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

1” of ice and 6” of snow for SW/western Chi metro on the GFS

That is quite a combo.  Can't recall something like that in the metro off the top of my head so it is either model silliness that won't verify or a rare/historic type event.

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2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

1” of ice and 6” of snow for SW/western Chi metro on the GFS

Yea GFS is all about the ice. Curious how much of that is sleet vs freezing rain. Definitely a northern shift in wintry precip on gfs today

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4 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

1” of ice and 6” of snow for SW/western Chi metro on the GFS

I would say boundary level temps are far too marginal for any significant icing anywhere near the metro, and precip rates are too high. Seems like 32-34 and rain followed by a few inches of slush. That’s verbatim of course, things can change.

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I’ll take my 2 inches of rain followed by 6 inches of snow. Better than the other way around (Still prepared for 3 inches of rain and that’s it. That’s the storm).

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I would say boundary level temps are far too marginal for any significant icing anywhere near the metro, and precip rates are too high. Seems like 32-34 and rain followed by a few inches of slush. That’s verbatim of course, things can change.

Literally was just discussing this with a buddy. Temps very marginal for a good icing event and ground is pretty mild to start. Snow will likely be slop fest to with low ratios. We need some good quality cold air

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29 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I would say boundary level temps are far too marginal for any significant icing anywhere near the metro, and precip rates are too high. Seems like 32-34 and rain followed by a few inches of slush. That’s verbatim of course, things can change.

This is track dependent of course but wouldn't rule out some good ice somewhere in the metro.  There will be runoff for sure if rates are that heavy, but that is a lot of precip falling in the ice area.  It's trickier near the lake and especially in the core of Chicago... I'd say less ice there than farther inland in practically any scenario. 

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I'd use caution with verbatim surface temps from the GFS. New version hasn't proven yet it properly handles evaporative cooling. That was a chronic bias of the previous GFS, not saturating and cooling the boundary layer properly in heavy precip. Air mass flowing in from the surface high is cold and most importantly very dry (see dew points just northwest of us). That's why it's showing sig icing, due to wet bulbing. Given the amount of precip it's showing with dew points in the 20s, 2m temps would likely verify colder in scenario.

 

Another aspect is the antecedent air mass. I think it's okay out this way and not that marginal at the surface due to that strong high pressure off to the northwest. Recall, to name one example, that GHD II started off with marginal surface temps with a rain/snow mix.

 

Aloft is where the issue lies and why this will all come down to track and strength of the southern wave and the surface low, to state the obvious. As things stand now, Friday night has noteworthy icing potential somewhere in the region.

 

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'd use caution with verbatim surface temps from the GFS. New version hasn't proven yet it properly handles evaporative cooling. That was a chronic bias of the previous GFS, not saturating and cooling the boundary layer properly in heavy precip. Air mass flowing in from the surface high is cold and most importantly very dry (see dew points just northwest of us). That's why it's showing sig icing, due to wet bulbing. Given the amount of precip it's showing with dew points in the 20s, 2m temps would likely verify colder in scenario.

Another aspect is the antecedent air mass. I think it's okay out this way and not that marginal at the surface due to that strong high pressure off to the northwest. Recall, to name one example, that GHD II started off with marginal surface temps with a rain/snow mix.

Aloft is where the issue lies and why this will all come down to track and strength of the southern wave and the surface low, to state the obvious.

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We have been in a warm to torchy pattern, but there is actually some pretty legit cold behind the front especially compared to what we have seen lately.  It will be interesting to see how far the subfreezing temps lag behind the surface front.

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2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z Euro.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Sign me up for that.  Rainy to start but then all that snow falls in like 12 hours around here.

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